RFP 8800- Technical SpecificationsRFP # 8800 1
RFP # 8800
Scope of Work & Technical Specification for Forecasting Service(s)
1. Introduction
This specification describes the requirements for utility quality forecasting service(s) to be
purchased by The City of Denton for Denton Municipal Electric, (DME). The new forecasting
service(s) shall be used in the existing DME Administration Building located at 1659 Spencer
Road, Denton, Texas 76205. The new service(s) commissioning must be carefully coordinated
with DME support staff. The scope of service(s) shall be finalized upon the selection of the
winning bidder(s).
2. Scope
DME is seeking proven vendor(s) that have a commercially available, utility quality forecasting
service(s) for the following:
1. Solar renewable generation output forecasts.
2. Wind generation output forecasts.
3. Load forecasts.
Requirements and specifications for the above are outlined in the Scope of Work ‘SoW’ below.
DME is not interested in service(s) that are either “in‐development” or unproven. The
respondent(s) submission shall accurately describe their understanding of the objectives and scope
of one or more of the requested product(s) and service(s). The respondents shall clearly specify
which service or services they are bidding on and provide an outline of how the bidder will meet
the requirements of the SoW for the service(s) requested.
Pertinent to the above‐requested forecast solution, responders are asked to offer their proposal
(or state none if unable) for placing a probability or confidence/risk measurement against each
forecast, including the direction of any related probability deviation or bands.
For vendors with related solutions not called for but could be provided as value‐added, DME is
requesting responders to provide any such services as an addendum to their response, including
pricing impact.
The respondent(s) will not be penalized or awarded higher, if the response is for one forecasting
service or a combination of services, including all services. Aggregation of services may provide
for more competitive pricing opportunities, therefore please provide pricing – if separate – for
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such aggregations of service. It is anticipated that the scope of service(s) will include, at a
minimum, the following:
a) Total Cost of any and all Subscription Services the respondent intends to bid on (itemized
with grouping discount separately).
i. Load Forecasting Service
i. 3 Year term (total cost plus by year breakout)
ii. Wind Generation Output Forecasting Service
i. 3 Year term (total cost plus by year breakout)
iii. Solar Generation Output Forecasting Service
i. 3 Year term (total cost plus by year breakout)
b) Required Implementation Time
c) Likely usage; up to 7/8 concurrent users, though unlikely to be more than 4 simultaneous
users
d) On‐site or teleconference demonstration of forecasting service(s)
e) Minimum 2‐week “hands‐on” demonstration period, subject to executed NDA
f) Meet minimum technical specification(s) outlined below
g) Provide for user‐requested imperial (US standard) and metric values in weather data
3. Prospective Proposers General Responsibilities
The prospective proposers shall assume responsibility for the design, fabrication and startup of
the new service(s). The vendor(s) obligations shall include, but not be limited to, the
responsibilities in the following list, and those required to perform the service functions
described in the Specification:
a) Delivery, maintenance and management of any user/password‐protected website or web
interface including ftp.
b) Delivery of any Operating System software and application software to operate the
forecasting service(s) shall be noted and outlined.
c) Integration of all vendor‐supplied hardware and software if applicable
d) Provide Training of DME personnel sufficient for use and navigation of service(s)
e) User’s guides, electronic “help” services/assistance, and other documentation.
f) The vendor(s) shall be responsible for providing support and warranty services for the
duration of the service contract
g) Support services must include day‐time support (Monday through Friday during normal
business hours), help desk, problem resolution, and subscription for vendor software
patches. DME would prefer 24/7 vendor support function.
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4. DME General Responsibilities
DME shall supply the following items and services as part of the new service(s):
a) Windows‐based desktop computers (currently operating Windows 10)
b) Meeting room facilities
c) Historical data required to provide City of Denton load and renewable output forecasts
(subject to executed NDA)
d) Internet Access
5. Technical Specification/Requirements
This section describes the technical requirements and functionality to be supported by the
forecasting service(s).
The City requests that all vendor(s) provide access to all service(s) from password‐protected
internet websites that will provide forecasts to City personnel with the capability to sustain
multiple users at one time. In order to be considered for evaluation, vendor(s) offering multiple
services must give mutually‐exclusive, individual pricing for each service (i.e. vendors must not
stipulate that one service requires a subscription to another service). Vendors must stipulate
separately if a discount can be offered for combinations of multiple services along with such
pricing. The City does encourage vendors to give alternative pricing where subscription to
multiple services can enable an overall discount.
It shall be noted that the proposal will be judged by its conformance to the functional
requirements of this section by service. Any exceptions, where the proposer cannot perform a
requested task or service, must be listed and detailed by the proposer as an Attachment to
their RFP response. The City reserves the right to award multiple vendors for the forecasting
service(s) outlined in this document.
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5.1 Load Forecasting
1. Short‐term forecast horizon beginning on the current operating day plus a minimum
of 14 days (14 day forecast, hourly)
2. Mid/Long‐term forecast horizon beginning on the current operating day plus 5 years
(hourly)
3. Forecast regions must include:
a. City of Denton
b. ERCOT system‐wide
c. ERCOT regional Load Zones (LZ_HOUSTON, LZ_NORTH, LZ_SOUTH, LZ_WEST)
d. ERCOT Weather Zones (WZ_COAST, WZ_EAST, WZ_FAR_WEST, WZ_NORTH,
WZ_NORTH_CENTRAL, WZ_SOUTH_CENTRAL, WZ_SOUTHERN, WZ_WEST)
e. Vendor must supply a list of stations/cities used in each forecast, preferably the
locations utilized by ERCOT for its forecasting
f. If available, please provide associated forecasted weather data used to create
the forecast, preferably including Denton weather data
4. Short‐term load forecasts must be by hour with updates occurring at, but not limited
to, the following intervals:
a. Every hour with the previous hour’s actual weather
b. With every major update of weather forecast service input
c. When actual load data is provided by user via FTP or similar
5. Mid‐term load forecasts must be by hour with updates occurring, at a minimum,
daily
6. Hourly weather data coinciding with load forecast (and actuals) must be provided
7. System must allow for automated upload/entry of actual load data by user via FTP,
API or similar automated method
8. System must allow for automated export/download of historical and forecast data
by user via FTP, API or similar automated method
9. System should allow for interactive access (e.g. web application, Excel interface,
etc.) by user to perform, at a minimum, the following tasks:
a. Short term forecasts
i. Edit hourly weather inputs to perform customized load forecasts
ii. Capability to view (and download via CSV file or similar) forecast and
historical data in tabular and graphical forms
iii. Similar day comparison allowing user to view days in history comparable
to days in forecasts, where similarity criteria is user defined
iv. Perform analysis of forecast accuracy
b. Mid‐term forecasts
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i. Edit weather and load based on scenarios for each month of the forecast
horizon (e.g. Normal, Below Normal, Above Normal, High Load, Low Load,
etc) with a customizable load growth component
ii. Allow for user to define time period of historical weather actuals to use in
simulation/term forecast (e.g. recent 10 year, 15 year, 30 year, etc)
iii. Allow for user to specify hourly forecasted temperatures to use in
simulation
10. If multiple statistical models for simulating weather are available, allow user to
select between them
11. DME is also seeking probability‐based load forecasting to include confidence bands
or range of forecasts around factors that can impact our load in short term (15 day)
5.2 ERCOT Regional/Site‐Specific Wind Generation Output Forecasts
The City is interested in wind output forecasts in megawatts (MW) for the ERCOT
North/West, ERCOT South/Houston, ERCOT Panhandle, ERCOT Coastal and ERCOT
Aggregate regions, with hour granularity down to the wind farm level. Minimum
requirements for this service are:
1. Forecasts updated at least 4 times a day (every 3 hours)
2. Site specific forecasting for DME owned/contracted wind farms
3. Forecast regions:
a. ERCOT Total Wind
b. ERCOT regional North Wind
c. ERCOT regional West Wind
d. ERCOT regional South & Houston Wind
e. ERCOT regional Panhandle Wind
f. ERCOT regional Coastal Wind
4. Forecast horizon:
a. Current day forecast (24‐hour)
b. 2‐day forecast (48‐hour)
c. 3‐day forecast (72‐hour)
d. 3‐7 day forecast
e. 8‐15 day forecast
5. Capability to all export forecasts in *.csv format
6. Capability to access forecast via FTP, API or other automated process
7. Changes to observed day‐ahead forecast
8. Confidence band or range of forecasts to include a probability of outcome
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5.3 ERCOT Solar Generation Output Forecasts
The City is interested in solar output forecasts in megawatts (MW) for the North, West,
South, Houston and Panhandle ERCOT regions, with hour granularity down to the solar
farm level. Minimum requirements for this service are:
1. Forecasts updated at least 4 times a day (every 3 hours)
2. Site specific forecasting for DME owned/contracted solar farms including additional
farms over time as the underlying load continues to grow in Denton.
3. Forecast regions:
a. ERCOT Total solar
b. ERCOT regional North & West solar
c. ERCOT regional South & Houston solar
d. ERCOT regional Panhandle solar
e. DME site specific farms
4. Forecast horizon:
a. Current day forecast (24‐hour)
b. 2‐day forecast (48‐hour)
c. 3‐day forecast (72‐hour)
d. 3‐7 day forecast
e. 8‐15 day forecast
5. Capability to all export forecasts in *.csv format
6. Capability to access forecast via FTP, API or other automated methods
7. Changes to observed day‐ahead forecast
8. Confidence band or range of forecasts to include a probability of outcome.
6. DME Prospective Proposer Presentation & Trial Period
The purpose of the prospective proposer presentation & trial period is two‐fold:
1. The prospective proposer will be given about two hours to demonstrate the pertinent
points of their service. This is generally known as the “sales presentation”.
2. The trial period allows staff “hands‐on” time with the service in order to accurately
evaluate the product for DME’s needs.
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7. Evaluation Criteria
The City of Denton will evaluate the submission in accordance with the selection criteria
and will rank the firms on the basis of the submittals. The City of Denton, reserves the
right to consider information obtained in addition to the data submitted in the response.
The selection criterion is listed below:
a) Delivery/Project Schedule (FACTOR: 5%).
Ability to timely start and complete projects. This includes the schedule to
complete a project and may include the ability to meet required milestones of
completion. For supplies, the estimated delivery after receipt of the order.
b) Compliance with specifications, quality, reliability, and characteristics to meet
stated or implied needs (FACTOR 30%)
Compliance with the stated specification(s) coupled with the quality and reliability
of the goods and services such as fitness for use that meets or exceeds Owner’s
expectations and the characteristics of the product or service that bear on its ability
to meet the stated/implied needs.
c) Indicators of Probable Performance under contract (FACTOR: 25%).
Indicators of probable performance under the contract to include: past vendor
performance, financial resources and ability to perform, experience or
demonstrated capability and responsibility, references, and the vendor’s ability to
provide reliable maintenance agreements and support.
d) Price, Total Cost of Ownership (FACTOR: 40%).
The price of the items, to include total cost of ownership, such as installation costs,
life cycle costs, and warranty provisions.
The total possible score of the submissions shall be scored and weighted as indicated above,
items a) – d). Based on the outcome of the computations performed, each submission will
be assigned a raw score. The assigned weight will then be applied to these scores to
calculate an overall score for each submission for completion of the final scoring process.