7057 - Weather Forecasting Service– Denton Municipal Electric, 3.Statement of Work/ Specifications
Exhibit 3 - RFP # 7057
Scope of Work & Technical Specification for Forecasting Service(s)
Introduction
This specification describes the requirements for utility quality forecasting service(s) to be purchased by The City of Denton for Denton Municipal Electric, (DME). The new forecasting
service(s) shall be used in the existing DME Administration Building located at 1659 Spencer Road, Denton, Texas 76205. The commissioning of the new service(s) must be carefully coordinated
with DME support staff. The scope of service(s) shall be finalized upon the selection of the winning bidder(s).
Scope
DME is seeking proven vendor(s) that have a commercially available, utility quality forecasting service(s) for the following: solar renewable generation output forecasts, wind generation
output forecasts, weather forecasts, and load forecasts as defined in this document. DME is not interested in service(s) that are either “in-development” or unproven. The respondent(s)
submission shall accurately describe their understanding of the objectives and scope of one or all of the requested product(s) and service(s). The respondents shall clearly specify
which service or services they are bidding on and provide an outline of how the bidder will meet the requirements of the scope of work/service(s) requested. The respondent(s) will
not be penalize or awarded higher, if the response is for one forecasting service or a combination of services, including all services. It is anticipated that the scope of service(s)
will include, at a minimum, the following:
Total Cost of any and all Subscription Service respondent intends to bid on (itemized with grouping discount separately).
Load Forecasting Service
3 Year term (total cost plus by year)
Weather Forecasting Service
3 Year term (total cost plus by year)
Wind Generation Output Forecasting Service
3 Year term (total cost plus by year)
Solar Generation Output Forecasting Service
3 Year term (total cost plus by year)
Required Implementation Time
Short on-site or web-ex demonstration of forecasting service(s)
Meet minimum technical specification(s) outlined below
Provide for user requested imperial (US standard) and metric values in weather data
Prospective Proposers General Responsibilities
The prospective proposers shall assume responsibility for the design, fabrication and startup of the new service(s). The vendor(s) obligations shall include, but not be limited to, the
responsibilities in the following list, and those required performing the service functions described in the Specification:
Delivery, maintenance and management of any user/password protected website or web interface.
Delivery of any Operating System software and application software to operate the forecasting service(s) shall be noted and outlined.
Integration of all vendor-supplied hardware and software if applicable
Provide Training of DME personnel sufficient for use and navigation of service(s)
User’s guides, electronic “help” services/assistance, and other documentation.
The vendor(s) shall be responsible to provide support and warranty services for the duration of the services contract
Support services must include day-time support (Monday through Friday during normal business hours), help desk, problem resolution, and subscription for vendor software patches. DME
would prefer 24/7 vendor support function.
DME General Responsibilities
DME shall supply the following items and services as part of the new service(s):
Windows based desktop computers
Meeting room facilities
Historical data required to provide City of Denton load forecasts (subject to executed NDA)
Internet Access
Technical Specification/Requirements
This section describes the technical requirements and functionality to be supported by the forecasting service(s).
The City requests that all vendor(s) provide access to all service(s) from password protected internet websites that will provide forecasts to City personnel with the capability to sustain
multiple users at one time. In order to be considered for evaluation, vendor(s) offering multiple
services must give mutually-exclusive, individual pricing for each service (i.e. vendors must not stipulate that one service requires subscription to another service). Vendors must
stipulate separately if a discount can be offered for combinations of multiple services. The City does encourage vendors to give alternative pricing where subscription to multiple services
can enable an overall discount.
It shall be noted that the proposal will be judged by its conformance to the functional requirements of this section by service. Any exceptions, where the proposer cannot perform a
requested task or service, must be listed and detailed by the proposer as an Attachment to their RFP response. The City reserves the right to award multiple vendors for the forecasting
service(s) outlined in this document.
Load Forecasting
Short term forecast horizon beginning on the current operating day plus 13 days (14 day forecast)
Mid-term forecast horizon beginning on the current operating day plus 364 days (1 year forecast)
Forecast regions must include:
City of Denton
ERCOT system-wide
ERCOT regional Load Zones (LZ_HOUSTON, LZ_NORTH, LZ_SOUTH, LZ_WEST)
ERCOT Weather Zones (WZ_COAST, WZ_EAST, WZ_FAR_WEST, WZ_NORTH, WZ_NORTH_CENTRAL, WZ_SOUTH_CENTRAL, WZ_SOUTHERN, WZ_WEST)
Vendor must supply a list of stations/cities used in each forecast
If available, please provide associated forecasted weather data
Short term load forecasts must be by hour with updates occurring at, but not limited to, the following intervals:
Every hour with previous hour’s actual weather
With every major update of weather forecast service input
When actual load data is provided by user via FTP or similar
Mid-term load forecasts must be by hour (8760-hour forecast) with updates occurring, at a minimum, daily
Hourly weather data coinciding with load forecast (and actuals) must be provided
System must allow for automated upload/entry of actual load data by user via FTP or similar
System must allow for automated export/download of historical and forecast data by user via FTP or similar
System should allow for interactive access (e.g. web application, Excel interface, etc.) by user to perform, at a minimum, the following tasks:
Short term forecasts
Edit weather inputs to perform customized load forecasts
Capability to view forecast and historical data in tabular and graphical forms
Similar day comparison allowing user to view days in history comparable to days in forecasts, where similarity criteria is user defined
Perform analysis of forecast accuracy
Mid-term forecasts
Edit weather and load based on scenarios for each month of the forecast horizon (e.g. Normal, Below Normal, Above Normal, High Load, Low Load, etc)
Allow for user to define time period of historical weather actuals to use in simulation/ term forecast (e.g. recent 10 year, 15 year, 30 year, etc)
Allow for user to specify hourly forecasted temperatures to use in simulation
If multiple statistical models for simulating weather are available, allow user to select between them
Access to forecast data via FTP or similar automated capability.
Meteorological Weather Reporting & Forecasting
DME is seeking proven commercially available utility quality weather forecasting service that provides short-term, mid-term and seasonal forecasts. Specifically, DME is requesting utility
quality weather forecast service that would at a minimum provide visibility in each of the eastern NERC Control Regions and/or Independent System Operators (ISO) of which must include
ERCOT.
Interactive Graphical Weather & Radar Display
The interactive graphical satellite display functionality should include, at a minimum, the following:
Time-lapse animation of satellite and radar imagery
Scaling ability (zoom in/out, directional movement)
Ability to toggle and display pertinent data in a layered format, including, but not limited to:
Hourly observed temperature
Dew point
Wind speed & direction
Storm cells & direction (with lightning if available)
National Weather Service Watches/Warnings
National Hurricane Center Watches/Warnings
Radar imagery
Satellite imagery
Continuous updates of live satellite and radar
Daily & Hourly Weather Forecasts
Daily and hourly forecasts shall be updated at least twice daily, once before 0700 Central Prevailing Time and once before 1430 Central Prevailing Time.
A Meteorologist/Forecaster period summary (e.g. 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day) is expected at the first forecast update of each business day summarizing changes from the previous period
forecast, along with a measure of certainty for the present forecast, and discussion of factors influencing the present forecast.
The hourly 15-day (current day + 14 days) weather forecast should include, at a minimum, the following for each hour:
Air temperature (Fahrenheit)
Heat Index/Wind Chill influenced temperature (e.g. how it feels in the current conditions)
Dew Point
Cloud Cover Percentage
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
Precipitation
The daily 15-day weather forecast should include, at a minimum, the following for each day:
Max/Min Temperature
Heating/Cooling Degree Days (HDD/CDD)
Probability of Precipitation (POP)
30-Day/90-Day/Seasonal Weather Forecasts
30-day & 90-day forecasts shall be updated, at a minimum, before the start of each new month, and should be accompanied with meteorologist discussion of changes
from previous forecast, certainty of present forecast, and factors influencing the current forecast, including the change from the prior forecasts.
30-day forecasts should show expected deviation from the current “normal” for temperature and precipitation for the current month + 2 months (i.e. July forecast should be for July, August,
and September).
90-day forecasts should show expected deviation from the current 30-year normal for temperature and precipitation for the current month’s 90-days, and the next month’s 90-days (i.e.
the July forecast should be for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct).
Tropical Storm Forecasts
Tropical storm forecasts including a seasonal long term forecast should cover the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico. 1-3 day and 4-7 day graphical storm tracking and outlooks
are expected, along with meteorologist commentary. Tropical precipitation and wind forecasts are also expected for this region. If already available Pacific basin can be included at
no additional cost.
File Transfer Protocol (FTP) access of Forecast Data
Daily and hourly forecast data should be able to be exported in *.csv format via FTP or similar protocol.
Historical Data Availability
Users should be able to query and export historical daily and hourly data in *.csv format.
Daily data should be updated daily with the previous day’s data, and should have at least 50 years of data accessible by the user. Daily data should include at a minimum:
Observed minimum/maximum/average temperatures
Observed precipitation
Observed HDD/CDD
Average minimum/maximum/average temperatures
Average HDD/CDD
Hourly data should be updated daily with the previous day’s data, and should have at least 20 years of data accessible by the user. Hourly data should include at a minimum:
Observed temperature
Observed dew point
Observed wind chill
Observed heat index
Observed wind speed
Observed wind direction
Observed relative humidity
Observed cloud cover
Observed precipitation
Access via Phone/Email/WebEx/In Person to long range seasonal forecast.
Provide access to various meteorological model output if available
Must have and provide access to an experienced meteorologist on staff.
ERCOT Regional/Site-Specific Wind Generation Output Forecasts
The City is interested in wind output forecasts in megawatts (MW) for the ERCOT North/West, ERCOT South/Houston, ERCOT Panhandle, ERCOT Coastal and ERCOT Aggregate regions, with hour
granularity down to the wind farm level. Minimum requirements for this service are:
Forecasts updated at least 4 times a day (every 3 hours)
Forecast regions:
ERCOT Total Wind
ERCOT regional North & West Wind
ERCOT regional South & Houston Wind
ERCOT regional Panhandle Wind
ERCOT regional Coastal Wind
Forecast horizon:
Current day forecast (24-hour)
2-day forecast (48-hour)
3-day forecast (72-hour)
3-7 day forecast
Capability to all export forecasts in *.csv format
Capability to access forecast via FTP or other automated forecast access
Changes to observed forecast
Confidence band or range of forecast
ERCOT Solar Generation Output Forecasts
The City is interested in solar output forecasts in megawatts (MW) for the North, West, South, Houston and Panhandle ERCOT regions, with hour granularity down to the solar farm level.
Minimum requirements for this service are:
Forecasts updated at least 4 times a day (every 3 hours)
Forecast regions:
ERCOT Total solar
ERCOT regional North & West solar
ERCOT regional South & Houston solar
ERCOT regional Panhandle solar
Forecast horizon:
Current day forecast (24-hour)
2-day forecast (48-hour)
3-day forecast (72-hour)
3-7 day forecast
Capability to all export forecasts in *.csv format
Capability to access forecast via FTP or other automated methods
Changes to observed forecast
Confidence band or range of forecast
DME Prospective Proposer Presentation & Trial Period
The purpose of the prospective proposer presentation & trial period is two-fold:
The prospective proposer will be given about two hours to demonstrate the pertinent points of their service. This is generally known as the “sales presentation”.
The trial period allows staff “hands-on” time with the service in order to accurately evaluate the product for DME’s needs.
Appendix
Weather Technical Specification Outline Table
The requirements listed in the table below are intended to provide responders a generic check list of the minimum required technical specifications listed above in section 5.2.
Requirement
Description
1
Provide Web based Graphical User Interface
2
Provide User/Password Protected Internet Website
3
Provide High Quality Utility Scale Weather Forecasting
4
Provide Weather visibility to each of the eastern NERC Control Regions or Independent System Operator (ISO) including ERCOT
5
Provide High Quality Short/Mid Term (1-15 Day) Weather forecast
6
Provide Short/Mid Term (1-15 Day) Hourly Tabular data Weather forecast
7
Provide Map/Graphical Representation of Short/Mid Term (1-15 Day) forecast
8
Provide Short/Mid Term (1-15 Day) High/Low Temperature comparison to Climatological normal
9
Provide Short/Mid Term (1-15 Day) Forecast by city within a Region
9
Provide High Quality Seasonal Forecasts
10
Provide Map/Graphical Representation of Seasonal forecast
11
Provide Map/Graphical Forecast Change Comparison (i.e. New vs Old forecast) for Short/Mid Term and Seasonal forecasts
12
Provide Regional Maps with various Forecast/Historical weather information
13
Provide North America Real Time Interactive Weather Map with selectable Layers/Overlays
14
Provide Weather Alerts/Notifications via Webpage or email
15
Provide Meteorologist discussion for Short/Mid Term changes in a specific Region or ISO
16
Provide Regional/National Weighted Weather Forecast (Example - Gas or Population weighted HDD and CDD)
17
Provide Seasonal and T+1 thru T+6 Month report detailing macro weather forecasts and changes
18
Provide Regional Solar forecast, ERCOT region preferred
19
Provide Regional Wind speed and direction forecast preferable by wind farm
20
Provide Access to various Historical Data via web query or downloadable .csv file
21
Provide Access to Forecast via FTP or similar
22
Provide Access via Phone/Email/WebEx to experienced meteorologist
23
Provide Access to ECMWF, NMME, CFSv2, CMC1, CMC2, GFDL, NASA, NCAR, CanSIPS or Internal/Proprietary Model Forecast reports