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CITY OF DENTON
POAR SUPPLY STUDY
PROGRESS REPORT TO DENTON
PUBLIC UTILITY BOARD
January 30, 1980
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61lBEk# A$SOCGITES, WG1 : 0 eat ' PA 3/f~1 M/4bk 6b7woc/1~iac 63 11
January 30, 190
Mr. George Krieger, Chairman
Public Utilities Board
City of Denton
Municipal Building
Denton, Texas 76201
Dear Sir:
As agreed to in our meetii g with the Public Utilities Board on
November 21, 1979, Gilbert is presenting herein a progress report
which includes a summary of the load forecast conducted by us.
Based on the results of this forecast, we would like to obtain
approval for the utilization of our load forecast in comparing the
alternatives under consideration for the Power Supply portion of our
study.
• Also included in this progress report is a description of the load
analysis conducted by Gilbert personnel which, with the load forecast,
will be used as the basis for our case comparisons. A fin0 item
included for your review is a detailed description of the sir" alter-
natives as we presently envision them.
It is our opinion that we have now reached the point in our assignment
whereby a major decision must be made in order to proceed with the
study. This decision includes the selection of the load forecast to be
utilized and the load analysis data, which together, will provide the
basis for all our case comparisons.
We are prepared to discuss the above Items in detail and provide the
documentation behind our recom.,endations.
Respectfully submit e
A. A. Herman, Jr.
Project Manager
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r .yTABLE OF CZNi ~l~,S_
LETTER OF uOSHITTAL
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PROPOSED AGENDA
i
DEMAND AND ENERGY FORECAST - PRELIMINARY RESULTS
LOAD MODEL PREPARATION
PRODUCTION COSTING MODEL - SAMPLE OUTPUT
CASE DESCRIPTIONS
SUMMARY OF PROGRESS TO DATE
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RROPOSEO AkNOA
DISCUSSION OF-.PROGRESS REPORT
WITH
PUBLIC UTILITIES'BOARD
UTILITY PERSONNEL -
INTRODUCTION - A. A. Herman, Project Manager
INTRODUCTION
DEMAND & ENERGY FORECAST - S.C. Abromaitis, Senior Consultant
LOAD ANALYSIS - A. A. Herman
CASE DESCRIPTIONS - A. A. Herman
DISCUSSION PERIOD - Gilbert, Utility Board, & Utility Personnel
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GILBCRT/COK40NWEALTN
DEMAND & ENERGY FORECAST
For, The
CITY OF DENTON
1980-1990
(preliminary)
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TABLE-OF ~ CONTENTS
r ! r5 Exhibit
o SUMMAW OF RESULTS
Summary of Forecast Results I
Energy Mix By Class 2
Comparative Forecast Results 3
System Input Requirements 4
Peak Load 5
o METHODOLOGY
Variables Considered 6
mograp c - Economic
Electric Operating Statistics 7
Methodology a
kesidential KWH/Cult Model - Backcast 90
Commercial b Industrial Model - Backcast
o HISTORICAL & PREDICTED TRENDS
• Demographic b Economic Trends ll
Electric Operating Statistics 12
o DETAILED FORECAST RESULTS
Detailed Forecast Results - Predicted Case 13
Residential KWH/Cust Forecast 14
Residential Sales 15
Commercial b Industrial Sales 16
o SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Sensitivity Analysis Assumptions 17
Detailed Forecast Results - Low Case l8
Detailed Fore:ast Results - High Case 19
Residential KWH/Cust Forecast 20
Commercial b Industrial Sales Forecast 21
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77' lt.!
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
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.~SUMMARY Of JESUITS
• ^
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OVERVIEW
Pretonted herein a're the Orel iihinary results of the Gilbert/Commonwealth
forecast of system demand and Enerrequirements for' the City of Denton
through to the year'1990. The results, presentk,,ire this report are based
upon analysis of various demographic, economic,ahd electric system opeta-
tin9 statistics as were available to us from the City of Denton and various
City, State and National level governmental agencies.
In our opinion the economic and electric system growth potential for the
City of Denton during the period 1980 through 1990 is.stron3 and should
exceed national expectations. We forecast total system input energy
requirements and annual system peak load to grew at a compound annual
rate of approximately 6.3%. At this predicted growth rate, total system
input energy requirements will total 909,000 MWHs by 1990, compared to
the current 1979 level of 462,000 hiWHs. Annual system peak loud by 1990
is expected to reach 214 MWs - an increase of 105 MWs above the current
1979 level of 109 MWs.
Our forecast rests upon the basic conclusion that the City of Denton, by
virtue of its strategic geographical location within the Dallas-Fort Worth
Metropiex and its proximity to the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport
will experience strong growth in the commercial and industrial sector.
Correspondingl_~, increased employment opportunities in these sectors will
cause strong growth in the residential sector.
In accordance with this basic conclusion, we forecast total commercial and
industrial KWH sales to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.8% during the
period 1979 through 1990. Total City population is forecast to grow at
3.6% per year compared to 1.8% per year for the total Dallas-Fort Worth
SMSA. Total Residential Sales are forecast to grow at a compound annual
rate of 8.2%.
Exhibits 1 through 5 present in tabular and graphical form, summarized results
of our demand and energy forecast. Exhibit 3 also provides a comparison of
our forecast of system demand and energy requirements with various other
forecasts which we have reviewed during the conduct of this study. Examina-
tion of Exhibit 3 reveals that by 1990 our predicted total system energy
requirements are approximately 106,000 MWHs less than the recently completed
Stone b Webster study. This difference results primarily from the assump-
tions made regarding the magnitude of load associated with a possible new
Texas Instrument plant which may be built within the City of Denton. The
Stone 6 Webster forecast assumes that, vhen fully operational in 1986, this
new plant will consume approximately 13kf,000 MWHs per year. In cmtrast
we have assumed that by 1986 this new plant will consume only 421000 MWHs
per year. We have based our assumption upon discussions with personnel
of the City of Denton, Electric Utility, though it must be stated that at
this time considerable uncertainty exists regarding the actual magnitude
• of load of the possible new plant.
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Exhibits end 1 ab]es
variods Ya.'rl,whlchr~re.~ev~~ewed et~o#'u
A raph.ici:aDdc nomic
it*
incorporated, eittrerr2cas ~yExhlDit d~pref4I t 0 in:sche~maf; system ic~tooo'the
oft
demand and energy f
structutal relationship employed in developing total energy and
peak load requirements.
The residential sector sales forecast was develop d by f read ntial~customers
dential custoaeers and per customer energy were developed based upon projected City population which in turn was
determined as a function of ,County and r was forecast basedsections. Resi-
dential energy consumption per rice, and
econometric specification which related KWH/cult to an incomes P
weather variable. del'sibackcast resultshforithe specifriodicati1965 selroughected1979.
along with th the the ate based
The commercial and industrial sectors were forecast in the ag9regelation,
upon an econometric specification relating total Ims to City pop
an income niuambersof variable
capture the e
"commercial". Exhibit 10 presents the final model specification whit was
selected along with the Hodel's backcast results for the period 1965 through
1979.
Lighting and other sales historical
® trend in energy would
6 percents forecast lnputuEnergyhRequirements.
Losses and UUnaccound For
amount to a
Annual system peak load (summer) was forecast by applying a constant annual
load factor (48.4x) to the forecasted total System Input Energy Requirements.
HISTORICAL b PROJECTED TRENDS
For purposes of comparison
predicted ivaluesaforevapicusvkeyEelectricloperating
present historical al
statistics Whe
value are providednforetherCityCofnDenton, DsntoniCounty$ therDallasiFoet Worths
are provid
SMSA and the U.S.A.
DETAILED FORECAST RESULTS graphical form, detailed
ar dered.
Exhibits 139 14, 15 and 16 present in tabular and forecast results thatlthejforecastnresults asdpresentedainaExhibitn13
should be noted d we wo are, our opinion, athe st dditionaltanalysesassociatedhwithrthesGilbert studyy.}
propose se to employ in
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depeWding upon,.-assumptions We regarding"various bxagenaus varir~blts.,. In
an'eff, t, to expiOre the' pos'S, ble rti~ nif;~44g of ;fo csislr;,Vertatir~n ~Jus to,
t3etysel,by modifying
dlfforinq assumptions; we,hlve ghduft4~ables assoc
id with the resi-
o4r, assumpirions regar'~trQ a4 n ei^ o t
dfintiAl and the ebmneti~clal. and'tndustrial::mg0wets,Exhibit 17 pt`esents a
listing of key variables considered along with their values. and annual
Exhibits 18,19t 20
growth rates under low or high growth assumptions.
and 21 present in tabular and g%&` hical form, the forecasts which would
result by assuming either low or high growth scenarios for the exogenous
variables listed in Exhibit 17. It should be noted that while either the
low or high growth cafes are considered to be within the range of future
possibility, we reONI the Predicted Case as being more likely than either
of the two extremes.
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TH
MO~COtN¢4T1nit¢tt
CITY '
SumnMof f6iftast' Rtsutts
ACTUAL PREDICTM H
RATE
x
1979 1990 1979-1990
Residential Sales 133 316 8.2
Commercial b Industrial Sales 276 511 5.8
Lighting 6 Other Sales 24 27 1.1
Total Retail Sales 433 854 6.4
Sales for Resale 1 - -
Total Sales 434 854 6.3
Losses 5 Unaccounted For 28 55 6.3
Total Energy Input 462 909 6.3
Annual Load Factor .484 .484
Annual Peak Load 109 214 6.3
* KNII x 106, KW x 103
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GILBERT/CbN~10I~(WMTH
CITY OF OENTON r_
Enemy. Mj b.Y'Class
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re cte
KY14i x 106 A V.i x KW z' 0 x Mai x
TOTAL RETAIL SALES 433 100 854 100
133 31 316 37
Residential
64 511 60
Commercial A Industrial 276
Lighting & Other 24 5 27 3
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G I LBE RT/C(f10(AiEAL TN,
CITY OE DEMTOH
CgMaratiV6'Forecait ResuI is
( KWO x 10 KW x lb) 11UAL GRMH RATES x
T06 1990 ~f8-1990 -
Low
ANNUAL PEAK LOAD
G/C 114 198 214 239 4.7 5.4 6.4
S&W 242 6.5
Denton 236 6.3
U.S.A. (1) 4.0 (2)
SYSTEM ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
G/C 476 838 909 11014 4.8 5.5 6.5
SaW 1,015 6.5
Denton 972 6.1
U.S.A. 3.8
RESIDENTIAL SALES
G/C 151 284 316 358 5.4 6.3 7.5
S&W 314 6.3
U.S.A. 4.4
COMMERCIAL 6 INDUSTRIAL SALES
G/C 284 476 511 568 4.4 5.0 5.9
S&W 623 6.8
U.S.A. 3.6
(1) Electrical World 9/15/79
(2) Non Coincident Peak
T~T
-7, 717
71711
~~I~ Viii li 11
J i4
Ilia ~ ~il I VIII X41
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METHOOOLOGY
i
i~1k ~ rA' " * ~ ~ sar 1' n) M ~ ~ ~rq kr~ ~i3 ~ nit:... ~,w.,
~ ~ a ~ R5 ~ t 1k d r L.. f a'Ir ~ w ``'F's y t r,T `~u~ 1 vr. r " r " n ~ ..JN r . L '~ar rr"v. ~ t ~ i 1 'y
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•
m1i IT
GILBEU/COMMOhWLTH
CITY OF OENTON '
Yaria~bte5Considered"
OEMOGRAPHIC EECOIIOMIC
o Population
o Migration
o College Enrollment
o Labor Force & Employment
o Housing Characteristics
o Per Capita Personal Income
i o Electric Prices
o Weather
r F a'1 " + 8 w e i-. r r+: i fNrf rAj ;?y~ '
qa ii .7 ,r b} gyn. fxF o T y .~u 'r4 J P yi';~rtl~. 'i d:l,~~ r~ A ~'k °~'47g ~ 4'1''"Fs.• }iL~~~ J .`~x.~ S y,: ry ,
{'w,+ t nl~ 4 }n. 't a t 'eY 3 z a v ° i y `1 . r en {y. i t it f'° +
e d tilt " ' t r: > > t r y:
~T ! " '~r w LR ~dr'oi tl W, r fk ,bt w~fSC ,,A ♦g if~fi Y}( ti 4 CRUw , , J
A r } 'L r f r %.i + k'Aa1 i d r ;r x 4 1r~ P l AI° + ,If r ~ 'G r JS. 14 "':J Y~ Y' ~ ~ x,•y 1
HIAIT 7
G ILBERT/COM~S}r41tEALTH
CITY OF DENTON
Variables Considered
ELECTRIC OPERATING STATISTICS
o Residential Customers
o Residential KWH/Customers
o Residential KWHS
o Commercial & Industrial KWHS (Aggregate)
o lighting & Other KWHS
o Sales for Resale KWHS
o Losses & Unaccounted For KWHS
o Annual Load factor
o Annual Peak. Load, KW
o Known & Anticipated loads, KW, KWHS
o Other Studies S Forecast Results
I
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A~
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+ ~ rl; v i¢¢ wh ~~.,fY :•~p~~~ } ~°(.li i .y ° i ~°t°r M'~^tif
t-
HISTORICAL 6 PREDICTED TRENDS
Demographic
Economic
Electric Operating Statistics
wtiitwM.~..ra
't!.'+,I^~,''hf~'te..i
, ,v,..» ::1~. <!r l .41'l'..5 ~ $°"'>•r<. li ".~t~... ~"`d a•'gt 'i ~.y« ~a k. 7i _.'.i"~da
,
r !h~ , hi 'r~.:A N Y': 4 L r~ 1 Y, •~i . 1 r~r'{y: r i ~ M ~ T rru"v, ,Yt _
'.v r .Y + , i. ' yu , .n y ~ .P dY,I l..Y_: : '•h L;~ , ,.r;S . ~ . r ~':r t j e C w.
' D1wDt/cnnalliaLLi51
ct11 a D~_
OrelrorUf e' ~ tewtoa,~ M...Mar
ttll•tertc4l t hod{area
r 1144 1110 t114 ` I1H 1914 S- 11 _ tr
o !!0 9ertttloo 11011 194 204 114 220 244 1.1 0.0 0,1 0.9
o/rw f1uAI10)) 1.900 2,316 2.622 1,919 ],Sso 1.4 2.6 1.1 1,1
aoteo cowty S1,Sao 15.9a1 91.110 In.1so 1".139 3.1 SA 1.1 1.6
city of Dootw - 19.614 46,130 S1,1S0 16.0% - 1.2 2,6 1.1
o • jpp
Colrlty .029 .071 .071 .044 .051
eity/eaussy - .525 .410 .404 .404
v! IS 63 7 it 1.1 2.3 2.1
o d IiOi) !
City of Deetoo 2.739 9,13) 11,034 14,SIS 25.552 2.0 2.7 7.1 5.7
■ 14110: ree•1etloelCeato.era
V.I. 3.25 2.91 2.71 7,46
City of bootee - 4.11 4.24 331 2.97
e Mattel taxer yore./ ae"lotlae
N.A. .11{ 405 .173 .4U .414
city of bootee .440 .sal .STS .400
o L4Wr Force
U.S. (IOa) 14 a) f) 103 Its 2.3 2.1 3,6 1.1
City of antoe {),141 26,19) 29,666 ♦f,4v La ].1 ).a
e V.S. let
Y.1. (foal T1 19 1S f1 111 2.2 1.1 ).4 1.1
City of Denton 1x,92) 21,It1 21,4494 43,322 - 1.0 1.6 1.6
• Far Coital row ft"
U.S. (i ro uoe - '670 2,915 7,76) 3,641 4,020 4,991 2.1 1.4 2.S 210
DOW RLSA (1/1ataw - '670 ),01) 3,572 1,9)) 4,164 - 1.0 1.9 2.1
Denton C~ty (1/1'araaa - 44711 2,416 2,1)5 ),Xa ),112 4,T4D 1.0 ).1 ),3 7,0
e Wf +ultaf Ilw. plE (C/1M11
21 1.60 1.99 - (4.51 16.51
U.S, (i l i1
City of Dsatoe (41 1) 2.42 {.1a {.f7 2.11 2,11 (S.I) 0.6 T.1 0.0
a Ma, 1911 City ropwlalJan: 51,550
4 .~,1 tin. ~ r~# ,I~:.ni a~ ~n?4i,,. y rg ~ r+ M,i _~s q• r 2~. r9" j7 k r5 i, r' r .'dl7 r•?` ~ i' .r. 'r'.,~r ,r
"W
t:,,: j;:,.,•C ry r ~ ...,r~ PP ..a .it r!r+'!~: . ti''t.`:d i'Y r91p~ '!«:~K ~ i rV'.'yi~ `dir., ~4.h~ .!4'. I '.i J a.»iJk."
5 ~ , ,.bN ~r ~ r
' .vi f4'.J'at k), t',:• ~d e ,i. :.kf• v.~,,. ~~h r. , y.~~,e ~,5:, :r ~q., 1. ,,1 J~~^t't~, r •i•W ~.,s ~,7.~r^~ Y~<~ ~T•{'p
~ '`=r ~ Ky~ :;q, 'r
r V r l r A.r t w T~ u 1 Ai., , 7 f y 4'1 r . v
aM r N.~. r^ 5 ~.Y~r~';ny, •J.. VV A~ 1,
~~'~'<d r +4 .p rK~%„~.• tt'rY t+• `,i .~,1 ~'d l; ~5~;2aG ..j •RpF4 r~ 2,7 R,~.~~.,`yv Trl'~r, L*w+ e'0~,4 ttir~t,~.~ ?tl`r e h "~e
'f oC;1,..f't ] n.. S
rw a r.. r`, L
CiLKR~T-~'/pi~e►j1l,lrlir
ctu or two
tlaclde Ilatw Op•r•tly l~sndt
(11let•rlell ~ rrellttrU
1 I S ,
If6)• 1!70.1 1! 1•
a.rcnle Otl'1AT11q tt6TE1TICt
• ~l~jlal ettaaen
MAIM 1,)]! !,N] It,O]0 11,313 IS,SS! 1.0 2.1 J.! !.3
tl./, (U (a tOl) 6] 11 71 H 1.! 1,4 1,1
° al~~l t9m ■ r S,SSf 1,311 l,S31 1.171 !!,tall 2,1 (1.1) !,1
e.g. (4661 • 109) 1,066 e,tT6 e,fa tt,S33 7,e 1,1 !.1
!~d(Aeetl.l~flfl
war. :IOI) u w IOS ►lk) 311 lsa s.6 1.1 6.1
0.1, (t0Y a loll 411 SK 70) 1,11! S.S 4.1 6,S
° d 141 Solos
Oe•too am r 003 Il Itl 116 114 $11 11.1 1.4 - 5,1
ti. i. (r3e1 ■ W) - $IS 1,060 1,3r.7 I'm - 4.1 A.!
° IM fi (r1M a~0:~!A 6 21 21 24 It 25.5 ).A t,l
• Ialeo (at Noodle
De•tan (rW a 106) ) at 46 1 41.6 11.0 (61.e) -
-
d Lazio* ViwtmLadja
De•to• (h1e1 ■ I 1 23 ( 11 24 SS
• 14tal !early 11h•ul
Da•lo• (MAS a 106) 160 306 415 461 ON 1).1 9.2 (0.1) 6.)
).9
V.6. (r{fl a 101) 1.142 1,9?0 2,101 3,491 4.6 4.1
o ennwl tjt4 twor
Daolw J7{ .4){ .312 .464 A" -
0 Anuwl Iya61,e,,ll
Nalun (rtr a 103) 57 al 106 109 114 1,3 S.S 0,1 6.1
U. 5. (r4 a 106) 1)3 NI All 6" _ 3.7 3,6 4.3
(11 S°arcn E)t. a lku1sett. 11. 1919
"30th Amain llaclrlnl 111juHCr ►uraca al"
Y W I. i Y; ~ Yr'~ l 4 q 1 4 f1 { ~ l~' 1 ~t J~ 4 S y+\ °M.',
5 a re ~ Y~ l ~ n 'r L a;94 P. :t rKh ~ $ .0 -u~ fl r' yY f~4 tix4 Mr hi k ~a:e-~ aR ~Gr ie yY~ a t i
1 7 .Yas Fh ~"r''~. ~Yf tl Sx~df i r'1 r({ 1if euPp~ s r eI arf; a i{+~3klfrl
fry ~
ti`. {i I rYd Y' Y ~ > 4 V 1b" rb } { sn 1 a i S. J r ~
4d 4M 'I ~r ~ fi 1~1 1 h ~ ~ Y1F r'F~ Y H. S
f
DETAILED FORECAST RESULTS_
Predicted Case
ae~rtw.M•+~
~ J, . ° A S y;~)a}, 'R eA xr' k ~ i ~ 7 3F ~ I ~ t.~ yM k 1 ~,,F ' tn' • 7y4, r\ ? l ,
'r; Pwi +y;'. v}'•~uat ~ '.N, v r'f; .u iti ~';.v i . ~d. r,~~'r s r. d'r 7.J~ 4'"rq!' ri x}y -!.'y r`~,..~ v 1 ~
L yA. .r, tfi,. 9pwa.4 , k :'1".
2.• I s c: .E_ ,i tw ♦ t.. k; ,rC. . , ya, :J, , 'V ~f tw $ n
.1 yr y, K~ e,,:.. $1 i~ 'y ,y, PfcY,<~ /d'•' '4.. ,`..{v., (K k '''a•). r. " L} " '-1' M'"a'}~i't4c.r ,.'fr• 'i r~~.~rv
l, r x':4:1, 1 t r °~[~r~tyL r. a r
i5;?.~
!3TI Tll
ontall d rococaat Rat+lt~ - rro6lcta0 Casa
(p'a alialtyl
i9H ISO I n l S i t!) 1 CROI4RATR
ACTIML %
1,91 04.0 + 3.002 si ],505,2{S ),519,591 L1
R oslo
Ratios COUO9118MA Asia 111,9:9 s.{
Dole" COU%ty I21.9s0 134,611 404
Ratim eityledaaty .406 1404
City ON Melon 51,150 55.103 51,104 61,014 63,911 66.119 69,150 11,001 11.231 ?).Sol 74,151 16,004 ).6
for Capita bear 0/rataod! 1611 1.011 LRt1 3.9{6 4,043 4.ll6 4,109 4.193 )41 4,416 4,556 1..161 300 43{O..100 2.0
Total PeFoowl Incomm (121001) 0671 191,300 114.600 130.440 144.410 261,160 211.130 1".400 310.910 312,016 334.060 I00 S.{
Roe, 004. RISC, riled (CIAO) 8671 2.11 2.11 2,11 1,11 1.11 2.11 1.11 2.11 2,It 2.11 2.11 2.11 0,0
1,466 1.511 2,576 I.S76 1.514 1,516 2.511 2.571 2.511 2.511 2.571 2.316
5 m! Coollal D-0079
Mud Ron. Cult. Oouaehdl/a 3,5)1 3,161 1,000 1.000 3,000 1,000 1,000 ),000 3.000 ).000 3,000 1,000
RI$lIIW6AL
cuatanra 14,515 16.142 11,102 19,062 20,112 11,542 21'"1 21,384 27,9:6 24.141 35,010 ls.isj 5.1
talc ropetattoa/Cwt, 3.51 1.16 3.16 1.10 3.15 3.10 LOS 1.04 3.02 3.00 1.99 2.91
Ryy~C.te,y,!t 9,1)1 9,520 9,190 10,054 t0, 326 10.4% Io,11S 11,17) 11,465 11,766 12,071 12,31! 2.6
KUM 2 l 1)2,534 1S5.107 174,111 191,169 109.845 !21,13{ 1H,QS !41,!10 !70,111 167,190 )01,191 )16,1104 1.2
cAfteocut, 6 1100VITRIAL (IOM A 1o's 176,199 397,2)1 117,111 341,654 171,061 401,01) 411,660 450,021 464,463 419,416 4%,1114 1134,710
).1
LIC11171Y: 6 ffsk MIRE (9511 a 1411 21,SH 2),900 14,211 24,542 14,667 2$,164 304.$05 25,026 26,141 26,461 26,1" 27,111
1.1
fOyAL INU MIA$ (IORI a•10?j 412,112 412,5)1 511,641 $31,045 605,191 651,11) 105,620 777,116 764,%4 191,174 671,517 1154,211 6.4
MLIS yot yma trwm 2 toll 1.414
J03, 020 ))7,116 164,%4 797,Ut R17,S7! 1)4,77{ •.4
TOTAL 9ALR3 11411 ■ 1411 471,7211 412.419 511,641 536,045 605,191 614,111
1.4sm 6 UMCAAART1tU h61 (t1M 2 101 21,140 70,184 )1,611 3S,420 18.661 41,616 45,051 41,050 41.126 50,410 57,565 54,516 ►,7
][IA WIMMAT6 1101 K 1011 461.5% 5o7,0b7 $44,511 $91,665 "4,459 4%,929 150,012 184.166 613, 1J0 14 4,504 116,061 9W,iS1 6,1
Mutual Ltwd factor .416 .464 .416 1416 .416 .4 64 .416 .416 .464 .416 .616 .416
~MttIA4 ~-lAK Mo {q ■ 1011 101.0 1lIJ 111.4 140.0 151.0 014.4 IJJ.1 115.0 111,9 199.2 .0b.6 214.1 a.I
CIA a
7W
17 1,
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ill
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I~. ~ .ICI.. ~VI i llI
ri, I,
Ills
II ~II i III' i
i
~ . f ~"~9.:~r~~' ~ ,~~b t 7 dt~•r " J"~i^~.~ "7K ~ ~ .d u 1 ~i~l~ o, w 4 ? ^ •1~' S ,~7+-/-"`N j ~ ~rv~~rv, :'~'y'~ 9 ~ ; r+e c~~'
rFy y h 1~ ~Y "~~~5 ~
>~p~e M,' a ~ ~ v ~tl i ~ x, A~~ N l,~` 1 S•r, 1 ~ I. ~ ^7.1 ~p ? 1 ~ T~
aid ~ yll' ~ d.A J Y Yl< ~ `{~'y~['rty~J iy~. y] 'i u ~ t1, { j~ri lai 'L • / ~ tY ~ ll r o`fy ~'.~~•n
+,+i r
h
`Y. ~~1~ r~ ,F~ a~1 iA,s^''~ ~ft ~i~F'~"'~`d ~la~F';'j. (~IR~'t'i~ti '4 ~2~b?~~i~sklt~~,{y ff ,~y k. ~j ",`"F~k. ~l, ~?,-~R~'.f f. f• ~~Y+~W!. ~r
s~'
1
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
wn~twr~.w
P
r r. Y C r, ~,°-`,.f~.. .3`r' i•V;w r7 : ° r, d,"ul~p 'r.7 ITT,
{eA b!.
~n:~.r e', 1n• z•r
.-t. ~ x.Y: ~F^~. WM.. S. ~.e ~ rS:~M c ,r rW~'4~A:~ C•f, R~.. y~7' +~P(..a., is p:i f45 'f+ r.. ~:?R .siW
yS.r r. fi Pi,..'v L.:f rt .f, r: V...";~: .~i:.dt, I`~„. . 'era. RL%(kb 4
'y . , ~ i. mN"~~ ~4 w` r 1.'jc'T~•'~
~F~ '.ct.,., c . ~M~7rir~~I~~~t'",s; ~~^F:F ~,{I
fia,. y lrj r'
,A k7'}6''., J.W `r r,' v. Ei,',I+. rH ~Z'-;~y~~+~,; jpa.' ♦ Y * a! r:_y~ F y 1Nf
fk f «x e'Pk,r ,1"0 r. i`.f,.P I'.~ EF.t t ?,4 ..i' r i a•~,
r .
r C EXHI_ ~i~ r
Gild~RY/4~OMIOfI~lE~1lTN
City pf figKOH
Sensillyity Anal]lj A#sus 1ons
ANNUM 6 RAIE5
VARIABLE 1979 1990_ 1979-1990
Low re- ct Mqh ow Predicted
f CPULAT I0N_
City of Denton 61,750 76.004 76,004 76,004 3.6 3.6 3.6
RESIDENTIAL
Residential Customers 14,515 26,052 25,552 25,252 5.5 5.3 5.2
Per Capita income ('67S) 3,"12 4,490 4,740 51277 1,5 2.0 3.0
Electric Price-4/KWH
(167$) 2.11 2.35 2.11 2.11 1.0 0,0 0.0
COM`iERC1AL h INDUSTRIAL
Per Capita Income (167$) 3,812 41490 49740 '50277 1.5 2.0 3.0
Non Res. Households 39537 21500 3,000 3,300
I n + '`a• .'vA"" R I r.{?, ~ ~ ;F1:,.~ ,r e r y rjr i N J+'w 1 F. yr r. ,y~fy .71 j;q~;.yr. w ,w, N i',.'.
~ >y,..S•.~~~n ~ y +`~nni.. .r7; 1~; ''rj `r F~ ' ;=*ti .r r ' pis: f4. ~'.i.
J t^ f ',M;4 .y'!~. .j r . w y . i`n' ~ ~ .n ~,r u.f A.:' rav rry,.. w' 2 is xtia,5.', 1, (r.. { 'I
it!'f~.#.F~rS .A L: ir1w,, ...LS., ~ ,51 r'e~~.+ .e Y~;..~} S•I~~. y. u e ! /err:: 1" Y 1 r. ur~1 r' Yr~-h'<', ~r
p ~ ~ ~l+~ ~,1 r ~ Ir, ~.~y {'~47 ~Ar ~"1 !-..,.r ~FF! , > d t ~ 'rr<ef K r, t "'y 9r rr ~ 4k'• ,ki. !'n../r
{k- ~r».
j fir. .=5~ ~'~frA••'Y _ }e f,a'y\ n t. ~ ,F r.. '.IS 4y, Isla: ~N2..,..i :6'u. t ~ r d P'',~ j?' ~ r ri d'r r I;'d
,t ie 5
ea .r r .r y, rn~..,A a, i'y' ,.r~` 54 5.' d ~'e 'n Y+' ♦ ~ °Yi' RF~ x~, d"S
.
pp Ry" ,rw 3~: i~r °-~v4r^y.= ^9y,4 L6k .".a Y'lli .'a~sge',~` f yr a4a g'St ti~ItdY{kn ~r '.'a+,r C C'f°;.r l,~~w,,' ~s .~+,!lr~~nLf
, + a's` lgy~r L~ 1 Jar r r r d w. N r .l' a! ^•.r ry L tr:rr .e , r
d. v, .t, dl x.~ g V y ,
r ,r r qs 7~; i "t'r 4~'y. f I , r 1 r u t +r:, ,~1w k79
i C ,C~MONf7A1~
kig(le1 ■ptec4mt 94ar1 ■ - Low 0461
'
If7 1f 63, l l 1 If l 3 1 ail) if f1 ` 1"0
ACStrt AMR"
1M
IL
i,4J1oM
city of 91rr4rOa S1,1S0 53,193 31,101 61,016 67,921 k,630 69,750 71,00E 12,25! 13,502 14,153 71,004 3.6
Far espit• tarty (11hraoal 'N1 3,812 3."s 3,911 1,966 4,016 6,101 4.t" 4,111 4,794 4x359 4,421 4,490 I.S
.41 .2s .39 .26 SA
2. 211.54 111.11 24 2.11 25!10 274. 291.24 X1.26 12,26 322.11 71t.!! 141.)3 1.0
Total bo. AV& parsomak (4a/161M) ~4T1 191.34 2.1 2
I ► eeeuq 6-0620 2,466 2x111 2.518 2,!16 2,311 7,Sll 2,SR 2,51/ 2.51/ 2,57/ 2.511 1.571
Moe gas. Cwt. 1"606olda 3,531 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,600 2,600 2,S66 2,S0o 2,500 2,500 2,500
1ISIDMIAL (to a 10)1 12,534 tS1,693 114,139 t19.112 201,412 220,110 236,244 245,326 234,959 264,062 274,003 294,201 LI
ffIMIAL 6 IMLOM52AL ICON a 1031 216,199 212,411 2f/,S16 125,119 3$1.465 311,354 40!.612 425,711 431,412 450,311 461,014 475,916
5.1
LI MTIM6 6 M-11 MM (6181 ■ 10,1 23,579 13,900 24,221 24,541 26,/63 .25,114 23,505 25,124 24,147 26,461 26.190 21,111 1.3
TQT$L "Tait, "US (ON ■ 1031 432,112 461,024 497,446 540,031 512.800 626.716 671,422 491,13S 118,976 740,663 163,101 751,290 5.6
MAI, SAt" (9151 a 1031 413,12/ 467,026 411,646 540.033 512,500 626,116 611,422 691,US 716,918 140,163 763,607 181,290 S.6
{ASSES 6 1NACMWFI6 905 tBVM L-wa 21,1N 29,110 31,165 34x470 31,100 40,001 42,657 44,4% 45,892 41,269 49,154 50,15) 3.4
TOM E*JCT 1T0O11D0'Yf/ (L'4N a 10)1 461,896 496,116 529,4L1 374,107 620.000 666,121 114,119 141,613 1".N)o 1u.m 811,541 831,543
5.6
Ae I Load Paccar .464 .464 .484 .4N .404 .464 .464 .484 .484 .454 .464 .414
ANMUAL "AK 1MM0 (Im 3 109.0 111.2 124.9 135.5 146.2 151.1 165.5 114.9 180.4 ISS.1 191,6 191.$ 5.6
J
NW, r v ! A rt Y 3 1 ..E, Y ti.f ~ ' V'~ ~,4v x °t.A
t . ~.t .,,1 e v + .k. ' G E' <e s, r e • 'd ( i rK Fv 4 I
~.rc., G". s. dirk 4 'f. u 1 ^ n ~ , :u~~ r , ~ v. 3..iy _ ,1:, .S 'S; P"i•y.} rV, yS« i,, vS' y, m.. Ol~i
'.g.ti'.L~ . r A-~;:,ry. .~x ..'r(IC ~w , sE r,p r.qa..
p Y"1 1 S' F J' t S Y Q is y~
~x r ♦ s aP~~ i1' 4 ru + ''t: r ~ i? x i te.. w 0r ~ n` u - , :•*a',~
'J~ .,y i •E•~ ~t~_: e: , r r .,,q9~ r I ~~ti j~. u f I ( 4 5 ' v vyI'a
OtLIt6tl0011[Ot116EL111 :
. ~lr,r a~ 11fN1>til
H79. t960 tl61 l 2 1.; 9$4 Ills ! 1117 l9u INS 1190 clailtr
(r6.63! ,150 11,001 12,132 17,502 14,TSS 16.0%
for"nis of OaNM 51,750 55,1f3 36,104 61,011 67,921 14
Ily Lf
the G/t[al lacer ll/Talaoyl 'i7( 3 '(1 7 926 4,014 4,165 4 290 4,410 4,$52 4,660 4,129 4,914 5,123 5,111
0.0
O 40! IS L.T
Is .69
total ?etsaul Iacor qal ) 'I1 19;,30 272.11 2 2 Il 154.11 111.35 72.11 1f?,jj 3150 33; Il xSL=:L
6ae. ►vs. /lee, hlce (414) '673
Eam a„sl CoollaE 0-Days 2,466 2,17/ 2,11/ 2,57/ 2,576 2,51/ l,S76 2,51/ 2,57/ 1,576 2,576 1,576
..%at. IW-o•6olds ] SST 3.7011 ).300 3,300 3.7110 7.300 3,700 3,700 7,700 5,700 7,700 7.300
Noe Res
msam u. (1641 a 105) 171,574 tSL,R13 175,111 196,11S 111,770 240,63E 264,!]6 261,009 2!!,601 )16,220 3]1,617 756,124 !.S
. runtanlAL (tl11 a 107) 276.111 2!1,101 325,017 357,319 390,176 413.1t4 460,121 413,715 M],501 $24,021 545,313 S61,LIS 4.6
Lu~nr• c m[ua 66111 (RIM = 1077 21,519 2],900 24,221 24,542 24,163 15,164 2S.S05 25,124 26,147 26.461 26,790 21.111 1.1
fOTLL RRt41l 2A11/ lqM a 1051 412,712 476,640 525,117 371,056 637,771 630,936 731,161 791,420 629,255 664,716 909.IS0 952,650 1.4
]t71►L y(s1t/ (1.11„1031 411,126 414,640 525,217 $71,054 637.376 690,936 751,163 791,420 810,155 666,716 909,650 02.150 7.4
S KS a WACO[a1Nt6A 101 18461 ■ 1071 21.161 30,564 ]].525 14.691 40.',11 46.102 41.!41 SO.S16 $2,931 35,440 $6.076 60,620
1.2
iq[al rersr:r areultbtM71 (86411 ■ Icl?) 461,190 509,404 SS6,143 N4,953 673,107 13-1,036 799,II0 641,934 6/2,186 924,t64 941,116 1,011,470
7.4
6aoaol Lod I'aclor .464 .404 .464 .464 .454 .404 .464 .414 .464 .464 .444 .414
APOWL ry'A2_[.MD ql 1 101) 109.0 170.1 t]1.4 145.0 331.9 117.4 I16.S 190.6 201.1 211.9 121.3 219.1 7.4
I'M
i-4 F Mll Iv
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11 i VI ~II I
i i III Illtl11 ~i
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1
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.17
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~Uf'F
LOAD WjDEL PREPARATION.
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c)
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irk 4 L' "LY,~t $ P P" i . n b<r NyF.~.k. p~ ~i 5 4 al F EGf
r9 P ?t }I L rq~ p:
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; ~f fk , v @yR Y ht,~~ p4 rl w ~ ev.~~q Y y ' !i Sf J~{ t, CNy , 6~ ~l~ity ~ t i l ~ '4
ei r ti~ aA~n~i
E1 MODfL PREPAAATIOIi
yr
The'firsVstep of. a ¢roducl;lon costing analys'it. i3 pr4oriation of typical
load shapes representing t'he'specific a;rea.be6g studitdi. kistoriZal load
shapes ireassumed ta.be,consxant.over tia~e.:lhe Monthly Production
Si~nulat 06" (MPS) oom~puter'prpgram requires a load model consisting of a
four day types (Saturday;•Sunday,"Peak: Weekday,
normalized monthly set 6j
and Average Weekday),.,Och day is represented by, an hodrly load shape as
a fraction of the monthly.peak which in turn is a fraction of the annual
peak load.` Thus, by inputting an annual peak load, the monthly peak and
hour demands are determined by multiplying times the respective fraction.
The Denton load model is based on four years (1976-1979) o5 hourly system
load data. The processing function was necessary for two reasons: first,
any single year inconsistencies had to be identified and eliminated from
the four-year average; and second, the data had to be normalized and
structured in the proper format for the MPS program.
Figure I shows the monthly peak loads for the years 1976 through 1979.
Except for minor variations, the annual load shape is a consistent one.
Figure II shows the four-year average per unit load input to the production
costing program. The following steps were taken in development of this
input:
1. In an effort to conserve computer time, a bi-hourly model was
dew:loped by averaging consecutive two-hour intervals to obtain
a tgelve interval day.
2. Each two-hour interval was averaged over four years and separated
into four day types (Saturday, Sunday, Peak Weekday, and Average
Weekday)
3. The peak two-hour load was identified-for each month. The monthly
and daily peak load distributions were then normalized based on the
annual peak
For the Denton load model, August had the maximum two-hour peak load of
98.26 MW. The actual peaks of years 1976 to 1979 cannot be averaged since
they occurred at different times of the day, and the objective of this
analysis was to develop an average representation of hourly loads.
The MPS program applies the load shapes as follows:
1. Suppose the annual peak for 1988 was 200 MW. This would become
the August peak according to the annual load shape. January's
peak would be 114.8 MW which is January's fraction (.574) multi-
plied by the annual peak of 200 MW.
2. The study begins on a Saturday which has a per unit load fraction
of 0.672 for the first bi-hourly interval. The load would Dc
• 77.15 MW (.672 x 114.8). This method defines interval loads uy
day type and by month.
CsafC..e+onnw~
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k ~ t ti,r xtef 'x ~ 'TM~dr r ; w
34 For each yeat' 000thly energy ii Iresl+Prtts°are .,input aril
are met- hy,an adjustment of the a ly oad sha es.
An idditib'nal,- task;of the'data~reparat of°pr9cess'was..deVglopment of an
annual load duration, 4urve `ttDC , Althou 'n not .part of HP t,n ~t ;data,
the LDC describestthe p~bver'a1.1 choracto s., of Nn' ~'s system loads
and is yseful;for.otha~•,,, ks % the power supply studdy'. the'`four-year
average annual LOC is shown on Fig'04All.
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0 1 gooo aooo 3000 4ooo Sooo 6000 700 6Goo Et7Go
HOURS
IJ: ru b-,.1 M: v nz
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~
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i
PRODUCTION COSTING PRO'SRAM - SAMPLE OUTPUT
N f r ~ n~ v, r ..4 } r etfYy44~1 ~ Ly n~ b it3A Ti ~ ~.i 17~{ E
c r siE ",~~('fi.. ar,r x ~ { N x C"r.fr x rr r ~r ~Y t h v to 0 a r 'Jr
A 4 l4 l ~ ~`f T 4I t Y q -0O ~v ~.ilt Fr IL'Y VV.! P A~ L y E ~
x n EL rst r' ei. emu'' ih •iy 44~ T r r e i :.r `f ,i. v
n e it p p4
~E7~ F rkKy~N r Pry -~~„7 . ° lr y t K u 'S tl~ 4
w F Y
t M1. t ~ i Y + r ~ M a N
'rt Y 7 5'i. , i . ? r ✓"~Y +r s "',r. eEi
C'TION t65fI i0 PFOG1lAM 'SAMPLE PRO Ol)1?PUT.
I . A.~ OIV
l Productlbn'Simu-
The ppr4du }#on tpstiri0`'arlillysis is cent red ON the Y:.
1dt#bn ( S computer p~^o4r x In" AM 0,06 to jh~ iously defirz~d load
, ~ ¢ata implodes dc:Qnomio'sr#terl'a, gntt?ppe.rfonaance harac
model W,: nput
teristics and geniral syst,,,,per~ting ¢al&00ters. `Follewin9'this ,ectton
is a sample output from the HPS program. The page numbers refer to the
following descriptions
Page 1 Printout of Study Description input variables
Page 2 Printout of normalized monthly peak load
distribution and daily load shapes for a Saturday
day type. The monthly peak load shape was
obtained from, the data shown in Figure ll. Musing
pages 3-S are printouts for the other three day•
types.
Pages 6 & 7 Printout of input thermal data for each generating
unit on the Denton system.
Page 11 Printout of Startup Priority as calculated by the
program based on fuel and variable 0&M costs.
Page 12 Printout of annual production coat summary. Output
• includes maintenance periods, capacity factors, unit
energy output, total fuel cost, and total 0&M costs.
Also shown are curi.-ent and present worth total costs.
Pages 13 & 14 Printout of production cost summary broken down by
month and unit.
Page 15 Printout of Annual Generation Summary by generation
type. There are several other summary options
available which are not included in this presentation.
The data shown on this sample output is preliminary. As the cases develop
and current data is assembled, the inputs will be updated.
tlSF¢tf ~Yyf. ~ ~ { p C , yFq 5 ~ It ,4 N~,`.tp ~ r~r'~Y~u. 1~• ~ lrl I r ~
e, K.'Sf #~"iY,w.1 ~ i¢. ,q, f'~i?. F ..y tl Y'}~, ~ 3,.; ,Rt tM'~ ~~yiAtlt'F•Y ~.r]~.`~t' A 1 1':3n^l. • r.. l ! j}~Y ti?i
..a .tl. ,.1~ r.,~}~ y C,.' t'd'' :J, fi: 1'Ln. .rt~i~y Sftx: 'f-'. ,y ~1~ ~S~l'°; .~,.1 .~'[jk;t<~ ~ ..;l,.i.vl°. 'r•'d tl
i i:-"1;.
1 YN a M1',. r 1, ,~ltl~'e,y '7-: -r 4 t y,
r,.l. Y;.'~Y`~' ~.ar ~%y';?[ 4W,N'• In ~ n. ,i ''~i - .'~m i:'.e ~ :11. s,! S i M,
~I 4 ,.s i Y - a~, ~ 1, ~~i~ f~ • h~ N+., P ! D. Y r~ n~~ ~ 1 ~n 1-j.~ ~ li k 4 'i
MON HLY Pk01J1CjJOrjOCOSSYPROGRiAMEI PAGE 1
THE H'SUVNLY%,410r~4 NO SS1UUY 01/24180
TkSY CAST vlTM UEN1ON GLNtRATIUN ONLY
S TUUY U E SCR I. P•T 1 ON
YEAR FOR WHICH COSTS ARE UUOT£0 - IVb0
YEAA IN VM1Cn STUDY HEGINS - 1980
NnESENI VALUL INTEKESI RATG - IoI00
OPtkA1104 ANU MAINIkNANCE INFLATION FACTOR - 1.060
STUDY STARIy ON SATURUAY
HOLIDAYS ARk k£VHCStNTEU Atv A SATURUAV VAY TYPE
PRIURITV L1*1 IS TO BE CALCVLATEU tlY THL PROGRAM
DISPATCH IS VLRfUlKLU UEICKMIN1STICALLY
G NtKA]Uti5 WILL et UEMAILD tlY THE TWO-STATE FURCED OUTAGE RATES
tsEGIN411+6 INVLNIOF:Y AND FULL OLLIVEYIES AWE NOT SUPPLIEU
• VARIABLE O•M USCU 10 UETLRMINE UNIT PRIORITY AND DISPATCH
AN AUTOMATIC NIUMT SALE WILL tlE CALLULAIEU
LUAU UNCERIAINT1'INLR UNIT OF PEAR LUAOI IdOO 0• • 0. 00 0• 0• U•
PRUdAiIL1TY Of LUAU OCCUNRING 1.00 0. 0• 0. 0. 00 0.
T1SPrR AT 50.0 DOLL MIS PER MWHRv WITH AN INFLATION FACTON OF 1.06
IUTAL NUMdE4 OF UNITS IN EAPAN.,10N - 5
NUkdtk OF PLAITS PRCSENT - 1
Vr j,f~d~CFti~ gy`p`
y nr YT .1 N.a :,r f. k~.^'•', "''F"a.',,. •
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MONTHLY PEAKS IN PER UNIT OF THE AINIUAL PEAK
JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOOER NUVLKd£R UECEMbER
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HOURLY LOADS IN.PE11 UNIX, OF THE INTERVAL PEAK FOR SATURDAY ,
JANJARY FEBRUARY MARC" APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOOLR NOVEMdER MEMBER
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sUPPLY GlNtRAT1UN ONLY
IVd0 STARTUP PRIORITY
PNIUMIIY NAME CAPACITY ID. GENERATIOn TYPE FULL LOAD MINI MDOYN
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01/24/00
THEEECIjYUu Of OFNT0;1 @1111
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tEE .-1990 AWMAI, PRODUCTION COST SUMMARY _
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W. NAME JlAXe L COSTS GIVEN IN MULLIONS TOf, DOLLARS NU MRS p c y E Y U~`
T MCISf ZJSI TCOSr !/N~~li
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99 JAN* p FEN• 14AR APRIL' MAY JUNEO 77JULY AUGG• SEVY.o OCT. NOV. OEC. ANNUAL
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~r'j' r'~ r L i 1
f a. ,
I kAL LECTRIC C0HPANY EEUSEfl PAGE' 14
RE~HUN MLY ROOUC A COST PROGkAM
tHEECItY OF
~CAStPMITNNI;E4ION "JUKA11UN ANLY
lydo P1lOOUCTION COSTS
JA]dt. ] FLU. . M11AR• APRIL'' MAY' JUNE JULLY AUG& SEPT, OCT. NOV• DEC.] ANNUAL
lCtAP41TYG.M 4bl]~6 4i.2.6 397yzyed 4biayy2 4176 STa$ T 'S 11fili 61'ji!Qj4 401136 X al • 6 dS
FlltL {0 f IOtt. 9 0. dl • dY 1. ~G2z }q4• I~ ~y • • • 2l • 8 j/ 2• 1J7~~QQ.
U•I1 k 00! LO• ~i. Z~. L3• j(. 4• 4 • ~Q• 7• . z)• 4j♦
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~'$~i ,j,~~
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`:'j, .1,• 1 ~ d,• 9 -y, q ^•1~ p, Yh' a. ~5 i. ft. to .m ~.tE~ Ss~~ °x.
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GpNcchA ELLF 'Tk!' COKP NY lUSEO PAGE 15
rTTUNirk Y+~F6~UCt~Url CO5t PNUGNAPS
t"EE I{Y PLYYOFNJUJtNIi g5TUUV OlI2♦/60
TEST CASE MI1+1 OLItITUN GCNLNATION ONLY
IM ANNUAL GENERATION SUMMARY
tYPt OF l,tt+£kAT10N CAIMwl EkE11o AAGE OENAMN C I! GE GEIKYRMHRAIN ENlRA? 0 cu f 1 RES. OIL 08 00 Of 00
0.
t UIS. OIL 0+ 04 00 00 0.
1 COAL 00 00 00 06 06
4 NUCLEAR Of 08 0. O. 00
+ 5 bAS 112.3 13.239 063,47 6013040 100000
o CuldA TURdf 000. 0. 04 0.
E 151`rtr+ 00 08 00
TOTAL ~Od3Q~0
*COSTS IN NILLIOMI) OF DOLLARS
s {ati i n ~y C. ~J.'• t 7~PY-~} Tr~~ 'a ( W 's 1 }yam a ~4
~:a ~ tiA v RI~ ~ t , .i t
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rl 6Yr } J ~ ~ l
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• jai ~
CASE DESCRIPTIONS
i
•
i TS 4 J yd iyy u pp t tCr e y♦ k E ~ Y r`
r eC w Yb_ Ydt.[9L..4Ji 9, a1 t4. ~+fr nR (F114 i!• i1 ii t"L 1. J!t ~,C~ d r c i?~, c'.. C. r C....
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r a l.F r . r i 4a n l^t I, r
yy ` x
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'ifi
CASE DE5CRIpTIO~IS
INTRODUCTION
As discussed in our previous meeting with the Board on'November 21, 1979,
six alternatives were selected for further analysis in meeting the projected
dewd for electricity in the City of Denton. These six alternatives were
as follows:
a. Additions or modifications to existing Denton units
without committed TMPA units
b. Purchased portions of future generating units vithman& without
committed TMPA units
c. Continued participation in TMPA as presently executed and
planned
d. Sale of city-owned facilities to either Texas Power a Light
or Community Public Service Company. Other options to be
investigated and findings reported back to the Board
e. 11holesale power purchases, using existing generation as
back-up and peaking power. Again, without committed
ThPA units
f. A qualitative assessment of advanced technologies with emphasis
on refuse derived fuel
As a result of our progress to date, we have restructured the alternatives
in the following manner to facilitate our case comparisons. In addition,
the load forecast developed by Gilbert has impacted the size and timing of
the fOture additions under each case. A major development of the load fore-
cast is the elimination of any future requirements through 1990 if Denton
remains cor.iiiitsd to the existing projects presently under construction by
TMPA. This results in the base case serving as the alternative case (with
TMPA) for previously delineated cases a, b, and e.
Following are the case dsscrirtione. as we now envision than in our Power
Supply Study:
BASE CASE - (previously defined Alternative C) - Continued Participation
with TMPA as Presently Executed and Planned
The City of Denton is currently committed to additional generation capacity
with TMPA from the Comanche Peak and Gibbons Creek Units. Based on the
results of the Stone &Webster Power Supply Study, Denton does not experience
any capacity deficits until 1992. Table I is presented to show the results
of that study, The Gilbert forecast on the other hand, will push the
• generation deficit even later. Table It shows that the % reserve is even
higher through 1990.
row lcomofteMN
'p'ft' 4SU, rt1 {a Ig.h,'f 1 Y:~R6i~.~rw¢ ~N !4, y F {tale ~'(yp f'i 7 Yp a 4° of t~''
Y~
d '4 i A A.. °C aL , 3a v
041
Asa result of these, ridings we h`eve~-'selectid this=c ;;e~ serve alr>,sA;,
case against which a1 dither cases "111 be codsl~refurl itnpltafion
the lower fore cast is; the Ipmpaot th s has on the 'alternate v{iriation! under
cases as b and a previously Rnvisioned4 When.strdcturing the cases,'itwas
assumed that,with the coati ttedr,J(OA units: there would be a nees3 for additional
generation in the 1965-149 tia'period. This is no longer the case,
The question of what additions to existing generation do we add for the other 5
cases with TMPA becomes moot. The other cases, described herein, then become
mutually exclusive cases focusing on Denton generation without TMPA.
The Base base will be adjusted to reflect the use of the Gilbert forecast and
the resui,,s correlated to the data presented in the Store b Wbbster report.
CASE- ~Previously defined Alternative A) - Expansion of Denton's Capacity
According to Table III, Gilbert's demand, plus 15 percent reserve requirements
result 1;~ generation deficits beginning in 1963. By 1990, there exists a
generrltlon deficit of 73 Mw. This asswnes that Denton is no longer partici-
pating in the existing units of TMPA.
Three basic alternatives have beer identified for the required additional
generation capacity: repowering, combustion turbines, and fossil fuel steam
units. In addition, short term purchased power must be considered to fill
in capacity deficits during periods of construction.
The unit size (MW) and timing have yet to be defined since severa', preliminary
optimization alternatives must be reviewed as a first pass. Table III shows a
capacity deficit of 73 MW by 1990, however, this deficit is based on installed
capacity which is not necessarily the optimum generation.
The load duration curves from the Load Analysis section show a base load of
approximately 100 MW in the late 19801s. Thus, the preliminary studies should
focus on a base load source of 100 MW. This holds constant, for Cases 1-3,
that is all base load sources including sharing units or purchase power will
be 100 MW. By making several preliminary runs on MPS, we can determine
whether the base load should be higher or lower than 100 MW.
Re owerin - Two methods of repowering, boiler repowering and steam
turbine repowering will be investigated lender Case I. Appropriately
sized combustion turbines, ranging from 15 MW to 75 MW are being
analyzed, not only for repowering but also fo• the stand-atone varia-
tion. The boiler repowering considers replacing the boiler fans with
a combustion turbine such that the turbines exhaust provides combustion
oxygen for the steam cycle boiler. Steam turbine repowering consists
of replacing the steam cycle boiler with a waste heat boiler where the
combustion turbine exhaust is the heat source. In both cases, the re-
powering connection between the combustion turbine system and the steam
turbine system should show a net improvE.ment in station heat rate.
rrr..M MM IMMwm.-'~'
A,
; it ; t }r t en ^t..• & ~i . '~c n.~f t ~P~ a '1 p!'f ~F. 1 y ~1•
AI 4" T' r w 4i P N.
rR,1, lo I
,r
T P d 1 ,J ` d i~ " ~ v 1!, J 4 ~ Z I" j a i. P L 1 4K 5 i6.{ v ~ I 1 F P d-N " y-JNi „,1 'S T 4:ij kF. if A~". 1C ~I
it A nl 't Aen ~11P4 k"! It ti"1. YIY iIE.~~vu~ Ay~_
d r R Ft7..Cbust on 1'uFbi e'` y"i '#as►e combus ila 'tTjrb~n„es Cojiiidefe irk
h M i
e nn~lY>R4:.o stpnd' lone D;4s tf~at is
repower ng S G an will' I'l without the repo~wering pW1il14ar ,onnctionsf Athough theuels,Use ,
Act prohibits. the Use;of.r~'2111 a gas or fuel Aoi1 a5 afuel'fpr electric
v.,stigated t0 determine if it'is
eneration, it should &t least be'
¢`roVes' ecgr►omical,
nd~ed competitive .to, other ;altorol I s if it
sufNient grounds.inight exist to: qkr''tnt further investigation into
this variation,,
rossil fired Steam Units - while different types of fossil units are
pract ca , we are e m natin lignite as ari option along with natural
gas and fuel oil. Our fossil unit will consist of a bituminous coal
fired unit ranging from a 50 Mw to 150 Mid size. The cost of bituminous
coal used in the analysis will include transportation. The capital costs
will be "order-of-magnitude" estimates based on industry standards and
emphasizing the coo''ing system and pollution control equipment. The
minimum operating loading, the charecteristics i outage include: rate and O&M r oetsal heat rate and
Once the three generation options have been defined with respect to cost
of investment and operating characteristics, they will be incorporated
into several alternative generation expansion plans to satisfy the pro-
Jected load growth for the City of Denton. Analysis of the alternative
plans will be performed using the Monthly Production Simulation (MPS)
computer prograrc which is currently modeled with preliminary data for
the Denton system.
Output from the MPS program will give operating costs on annual basis
for the study horizon. These costs plus the fixed costs (investment and
financing charges) will be incorporated into a revenue requirements figure
from which the optimum alternative can be identified,
CASE 2 - (previously defined Alternative 8) - Purchase a Share
Major Generating Unit
As shown in c,se 1, our preliminary forecast shows an expected capacity
deficit by ' 33 (without TMPA). The objective of this case is to obtain
capacity to cover the deficit and displace base load capacity provided by
the existing less efficient Denton Units 1-5. Uenton units would be used
for cycling or intermittant load operation..
In order to fully develop this alternative we propose to:
Survey Texas utilities for the possibility of sharing in a planned
unit. Table IV presents a list of the planned thermal units for
Texas through 1981 which will be used wi`h other information to
identify the potential unity to be investigated.
After identifying potential units where the utility is interested,
we will determine the terms of contract for sharing in those units.
Included in this determination will be a review of operating charac-
teristics, capital cost information, fuel contracts and operating
cost data, and a projection of Denton's o%ming and operating costs
over the study period,
car%reeaRvo +.nh
I~ ~ } p 1
wG ii _ C~ 7kK 31 [J ~I v''18 i,{y' ia,~ I ~3l ! J~ ti Jn 1 T
S ~,n ~ Y ( i. +l' 1 ~r4 ~ 'lt l I' 1 f ^'a l rv p Y ~ S
a; wi if } S 1 S i ♦ y,,f;7. ~ } . +.v ~ ~ ! ~a is ~r 1,1 Ir t y~i+ " e~i
y~y,♦ f i
I~ i1 n ya yII'Y a u , 5 u }1~ f 'frf K• S. `YYU h`'f r ° i r
' ~K►. t 1k" tlq~ptY;~,?,C§~*.~,v ~~A^S'a- ~d'++f((..ee 9'~~ t a~ts~"`'r",~,$~, fi ~ °e"~'~`^y `4ks' ;+~R~~`~ °~~'1 ri~"9~~Y~ N ~Y fl~~~t~,.
~If Y k i i`~~ri ~ fA~ ~~~VS~ t A' ~ 4~Y UhV ti Y°. 5 1 u R ~ ~~b x SN
7>' N p. r '.♦"a 1.'. q :fir 4 +~t4 i +ii aY ; 9; iar
d r! 1'.Y! t e5 ~ 1 :.~U , tf9 l ~i. 4 ~ ~:'7 « /7eG~i f •rv d. i ~ rv a n~'PY Y .ae E ~ Y ya
the myst` also.lOvgttigate the tire'nsmi##saion ac`i'ltty capabltties
bi~twte'n Oenton,and 06' "t of the plrapf$e unit. Our analysis
will •irei OAe the limits of the tra6s0s , on :ties plus any ;losses'
that a~ay'be incurred. Shirt term purchased power. alternatives
will be identifled if required during the,construction phase,
CASE 3- previously defined Alternntive''i' - Purchase Power froth
Members of„the exa Interconnected System
The objective of this case is similar to that of Case 2 and considers
Ionq term firm power purchases to cover the capacity deficit projected
by GAS and which can provide base load power. The primary task is
identifying and contacting members of the Texas Interconnected System
who have power to sell and determining the associated terms. Trans-
mission limits and losses must be factored in, particularly for the more
distant sources.
To satisfy this alternative we plan to identify those utilities with firm
power available and review the rate schedules and fuel sources of those
utilities and project purchased power costs over the study period.
CASE 4 - (previously defined Alternative D) - Sate of City Owned Facilities
The major consideration under investigation in the Gilbert Power Supply Study
is the economic impact of selling the electric system to either Texas Power
and Light or Ccanunity Public Service Community. We had originally proposed
to synthesize the operations of Denton's Electric Utility as if it was owned
by the private companies. We are now proposing to modify that methodology
slightly in order to conduct a cost/benefit analysis of the sale of the
system. This will include all of what we had originally planned but in
addition, it will allow us to more accurately demonstrate the impact to the
ultimate consumers. The factors listed below of costs and benefits are
those which we believe have measurable economic impacts to the citizens of
Denton.
1. Cost (Present Worth of Cost to Ultimate Customers)
a. Projected cost of electricity under alternative rate levels
b. Projected net income to City under existing basis (foregone)
c. Projected cost of common services to be borne by other utilities
d. Projected cost of City use of electricity (included with la)
e. Projected loss of revenues due to Electric Department use of
other utilities
f. Accrued vacation and sick leave payments; severance pay if
appropriate
. g. Residual costs under existing fuel contracts
h. Customer deposit refunds if appropriate
I
.,:1.S ~W0 'S r'.~ al. .Y,:~L'n Cry,. 1t M ,i4 83 ~~N f'MiiLA v' 11r i. L Y,L~ e! ! s ,4yTC
WIN +
4 1
r~"
WF1
rr .1{P 'fib nI G,N t k Lz: u uL ' t 9. a 'P
+ r r Ip.;y a i g f t a t 'y. j` V t' { v
{w 7 L ( L ! °V t
J f yi....i wLiwd e*T'~;1 i. l,a ~t+tidEv r i t 1 'i~~ L t a r1 ~~4 L v i k~at~` L A'
'r.• v°F ,fir ~h srL. ytr L ++i~ tL/ - +
sehefits (Present worth
a, Pr6 etted cost d~ electricity.under continued Oily operation
r
b, Incremental property taxes
co Net $alvage valuef if.any, of generation Plant (assuming
"purchaser has no use therefor).
d. Release of restricted funds
e. Value of materials'stock
f. Working capital
g, Interest income realized from purchase price
To date we have obtained rate structures and developed preliminary rate
comparisons for Denton, TPSL, CPSCo., and TESCO. These rate comparisons
indicate that Denton and Texas Power BA Light are about
ormaual foitresidential
and small general power customers.
that the full analysis be developed first on the basis of the TM alter-
native. Since their rates appear to be generally lower than either Community
Public Service Company or TESCO, a lack of feasibility in this case would
appear to be generally applicable, all other factors being common. If the
reverse is true, then we would conduct our analysis of the other utilities
• beginning with CPSCo.
ources
CASE 5 (previously defined Alternative F) - Alternative Energy S _
The power supply plan for the City of Denton is based on the utilization of
conventional technologies, namely nuclear and fossil fired generation.
Alternative energy technologies including refuse derived fuel (RDF), solar,
wind and biomass will be addressed in this section of the final report. The
reasons for excluding these technologies from the power supply plan and
quantifyin; the results are as follows:
1. Conventional generation projects can be cancelled or postponed to
facilitate the integration of developing technologies, if and when
they become available and economical
2. Inclusion of a new technology in the power supply plan would fore-
close the option of installinga conventional facility hould the
new technology not develop. This is due to the long lead times
associated with conventional generation alternatives (e.g. 15 years
for nuclear).
3. New technologies are Initially applied on a relatively small scale
before expansion to commercial status. The process of development
long
d.uncertain, consequently, the planning criteria
to full commerclcstatus b is satisfied.
Yr Si
d S r l 5^ 1. 1M b . y, n 1 F M
r SuL! f~ r d~Y ,'Q//r~ .,.F<e d )sy 1' ~ f 2y. ( np~ n t~! i ~a4~~ a v~,, y d"'~'~ }~!7~d R~i~r~~' F~ t AF 'f91W
}1~+! 1y~, ~i Y.n,j
~~d~s$h.~Q~tOnaf tht,:,4races~
The disc4is'sion bt:'{tc'noq"`;: i+41i'tnclud;.,.
t in t'e tduthwe re ion and Compara•
perceived Shortcom tl.c Zhnol99ies b 1 .Y..
five cost estiaiate9. ;the e to be discuss d are:
A'
1. Refuse Derived FIA1
2. Solar Energy = Theimal'Electric
- Photovoltaic
3. Solar Effects • Kind
Biomass
As an example of the types of qualitative evaluation proposed for the advanced
technolo
to 9i
your review.
While OF and solar effects have not been specifically addressed in this
progress report, research data is currently being gathered in order to
determine the status of development and approximate year of commercial
availability, the capital and operating costs, and the possible application
for the Denton Area.
SOLAR ENERGY
Alternative energy sources for the City of Denton under the category of
"Solar Power Plants" consists mainly of three options: Solar thermal,
S solar photovoltaic and a hybrid solar thermal repowered system. Each of
these concepts is in various stages of investigation and experimentation
under a number of DOE study projects. Prototvpe systems have been developed
and tested for small power plant applications and reliability and economic
factors have been investigated. The DOE objective is to develop a solar
an c acceptablee degree with of conventional reliability. sources both economically
and program with which
Although a considerable amount of research effort has been devoted to solar
development, the solar option will not be commercially available until at
least the 1990's, as mentioned earlier. Smaller scale systems such as solar
space heating has found limited applicability in the residential and commer-
cial sectors but solar power plants in each of the three cases still must
undergo additional testing and experimentation before they can be integrated
with existing utility systems. In the following, a brief overview of the
solar to electric process will be presented and operating req O rements will
be e outlined. study will be noted
discussed fato be case. completed Current willprogress
and remaining work
Solar Thermal Electric - This process is basically identical to
stun ar t erma cycles except the heat source is solar radiation,
replacing fossil fuel combustion or nuclear fission. Many
conceptual designs for a solar thermal electric plant have been
considered, ranging in size from 1 to 100 MW. The system consists
of a central tower surrounded by a field of heliostat (mirrors)
• which track the sun and concentrate the rays on a boiler located
on top of the tower. Steam generated by the sun's heat is then
to p release energy conventional during steam the evboiler or to a ening or overcast storage periods, designed
wtR...w..~N
ily
~ py-, r• ~y 4~} tf h '~N ~r r ry r Vy+++at ~a"~ aid ~ tr I~ ' >ti I6 { ~ ,~I' r~,,KlSF ~ , Y 4 ~ 'J ~}^:~ti'
t i4~' ~ .t sy". t ~S. '`'`S r. th { 'C••.7 .SL 'f.'ik, n ~ ~ i+ :4e ,
'1 r r r e'*r(Y'1'J~R~~y`` ~~y nyt~~'t e~~ ap~'t "'St iliyl~o-' ' }~if~ 1~r 4S~• y~T"pj,n~
1 w + v i ♦ 1~ t! { ,;(+"r r. d '7+T~di F3 ~ti r r:''rP Nr i, I~ 0 NtrY~~ RY~"
Thyi~~ rlqu ' l!/5: QF "9I ~h 1 t1Ail~ste~s'ur~''of On
sa r
space e ` Snsglon?;1ev~~S
Plant `3jtr~l tmpprd~it finte area ni<15t bereseved
for the eliost ~r,tn;;olatidn anf st ~e hi~ h. r Wind,~an' else
of
the t
have a vital rotte ~n~'ssUceb~ high Alin s,~5e~ tohdctruPresult inaa totalof
heliostats; Kinds Of rEe er than ^s' approxS tely ,6 square
o'r i► 104 Nile:plant! The
61
shutdown of the iyst
miles of land area,n~ust be oncernblforoa t00iM4ftplanLstthe~tower
concern;
tower.is also a source o f
height site is oveativelyf eclose t, wto a restdentialnarea,to homeowners
DOE and Southern Edison are currently
solar thermal Pilo plant near
scheduled for 1981* this plant will operate in parallel with the
Edison system and will permit system planicatlsnfofr both the ra five yearstest
tific and utility perspective. The
operating and maintenance g and design. and cost estimates
covering for develoent of
We are currently tabulating projected capital cost estimates for the
entire system (including storage) and will investigate previous of sol
the onuutilities. hCostave presentedmand operating prof less versus
0
conventional generation will be prepared as they apply to the Denton
The alicability of
system.
critical factors indtheaimplementationloflao
be discussed be discussed
solar ccsysytotem sttms . willo be tc{ompletedsis, a critical evaluation o
solar thermal
Solar Thermal H br_d Re o_p veered S applicability solar thermal hbrsystem.
repowere p ant may~iav-e a 1 im to app
The solar repowered plants operate via the same principles asolar
boiler
thermal plant. The main difference is that an existing plant
to the
is used on a continued basis. During the day, steam is supplied
existing boiler from the tower and in the eventhuscanventional fuels.
are used to provide steam heat to the boiler, lowing the exing
fuel system to act as a back-up. The advantage of this system lies in
the reduction of caital cost already outlay and
building ng housing
and the heliostats are primary plant additions in addition to retro-
fitting the steam boiler system. Also, the need for a storage sub-
system is eliminated. The main disadvantage is that the existing plant
must have sufficient area adjacent to the plant for the tower and helio-
stats. Since
The size of these systems will range typically from 10 to 100 MW.
the Denton units are in this range, they allows possiblyrbeagainidatss
for a solar repowering system, if space concept luntilike thermal, will
commercially
not be
~ws rc«
/a~ E <'•~rii l `''~~~r+~ i~,~a'J', «O` 11,~'r F;k F~1 9 ~`'N,- XY,iYS }~M M~«FI`.,'!:r4r~1 .1'ui;,
s ~ ,}r,Pk «,y ,~LLi~~ t(!, ,,6y "1ij i• a' ~.«I r Y' .F r~ .1' 4 Y' ° r ; .r r1" 5 F , 1
I~.:'F it yc«~ ay4 r
r~
. a r + ti y . ,
Re igating;F g ors existing
Curretl~i rte ere invest
s i nl n9 the ,economi c
ystere►ith sal pr thermal s )tstfr~bdrastudidui
feasibi lity of; thbsbR's!!►steilt on the Texas ut't~iy; System Hill be
presented. an the•appil'cability of a *owe re"d systeia to the Denton
plants will be discussed.
solar P tovolt' k to tPhOtov;l'WO, ppears to. be One of the ~E
ppromising solar a terhati,vei. in terms of cost and availability.
costs projections indicate that with extensive mass production of solar
sometime photovoltaic
time to frame is erewith duced when these systems
1990's.. y The able
are evaluated for residential uses.
The basic process involves the direct conversion of sunlight to direct
current electricity. Panels are fabricated with either a silicon or
germanium structure which can transform energy in the form of solar
to electric when activated by sunlight., The direct current (dc) is
then transformed to 60 hertz alternating current (ac) by a do/ac
converter and can then be distributed to the utility network.
Approximately 1 square meter of panel can produce 100 watts of elec-
tricity. Simple calculations reveal that to produce 10 MW of elec-
tricity, 1000 square meters of panel are needed. Thus, space is an
important consideration in the evaluation of a photovoltaic system.
Regions which have high insulation will also increase power output.
Since the technology for photovoltaic has progressed to the demon-
stration.plant stage, these systems may have some applicability to the
Denton system. Again, the time frame for economic feasibility is the
1990's, so photovoltaics are not a viable alternative at present.
Reliability also poset. a problem in that a back-up power source will
be necessary to provide power on days of low photovoltaic output. As
with the solar thermal systent, an energy storage subsystem must be
incorporated in the photovoltaic system. This presents a major cost
obstacle and must be resolved for photovoltaic to be a practical alter-
native.
Currently, we are assembling cost scenarios from previous study work
for photovoltaic systems and the associated subsystems. State-of-
the-art concepts are being reviewed and their future applicability to
the Denton system will be discussed,
Own X000 +.ra
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QN1) pur) 4APACtTV 1(A'I CAS CAMCIrt O(S 11991 POA R1 09
n6n
1910 345,421 1,691,454 .203 - - 173,0 130,1 1%0.3 41,3 32436 0
1961 609,464 1,909,912 .109 - - 173,0 144,6 16613 21.4 19.64 0
1912 671,161 3,144,193 .219 4110,3) .109 91.4 271.4 160,6 164.1 110.0 61.99 0
1") 136,516 10347,925 ,120 342(2) .113 116,3 299,11 174.6 200.6 114,9 63.11 0
1984 196,761 3,553,714 ,224 342 .220 119.1 292.2 116.1 1111.2 103.3 54.61 0
1903 651,120 3,166,063 ,137 342 .224 121.4 294.4 203.4 133.9 91,0 44.14 0
1916 901.366 3.946.516 .221 $42 ,227 122.0 296.0 213.0 245.9 12.2 31.45 0
1901 926.463 4,151,612 .225 $42 .111 113.0 296.0 320,1 253.6 733 34.11 0
1900 954,4$9 4,341,044 .320 341 ,121 120.9 293.9 227.10 241.1 66.3 29.13 0
1939 965,385 4,532,549 .311 S42 .220 119.1 292,1 134.9 270.1 51.3 21.23 0
1990 11015,219 41)21,331 .214 542 ,111 117.6 290.6 MA 119.3 4S.2 19.69 0
1991 1,041,340 4,931,421 .211 541 ,214 116.0 219.0 24912 164.6 39.6 15.91 0
1992 1,070,191 3,130,)63 .206 542 .111 114.4 267,4 23611 294.5 111.3 13.22 !.1
199) 1,096,152 3.346,659 .105 342 .206 112,) 265.7 263.3 301.4 12.4 8.51 17.1
2994 1,128,374 5,559,36) .202 342 .205 111.1 284.1 210.4 311.2 13.5 4." 21.1
1995 1,158,706 3,774,324 .200 542 .202 109.5 282.3 170.3 )20.0 4.2 1.51 37.5
BU7ESs (1) Nta It= MM Power supply study 4y stone 6 NAeter (December 1979)
(2) Additional 71 1G from Comanche peak Nuclear Unit (6.21 of 1150 IN)
(3) Additional 400 IN Tram Gibbon Creek Lignite Ualt
(4) "tercentage Share" allocated according to previous year's tad on WA eyetee
(5) hard on City of Denton lnatelted Capacity of 173 7N vith no retirewnts
r
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0w)-
1950 363,063 1,653,06 .190 173.0 111.7 M's 54.3 45.1 0
1911 SN,312 2,e4s,olo .191 113.0 121.4 147.1 44.6 34.7 0
1912 593,665 3,059,699 .194 471(2,3) .191 90.0 263.0 140.0 141.0 123.0 17.9 0
1961 644,639 3,235.796 .196 542 .194 105.1 271.2 1S1.o 174.6 116.1 13.0 0
0
1964 696,929 3.455,942 .202 342 .196 107.3 260.3 164.4 169.2 115.9 703
1965 705.en 3.659,22s .109 541 .102 109.5 112.5 117.1 203,7 NSA 59.5 0
1966 764,166 3,649,$14 .204 341 .205 111.1 2643 163.0 212.6 99.1 53.6 0
1967 613,770 4,037,179• .102 542 .204 110.6 713.6 191.9 120.1 91.7 47.1 0
1911 144,504 4,129,069 .200 542 .202 109.5 287.3 199.2 219.1 63.3 41.1 0
1929 676,081 4,423,191 .191 $42 .100 101.4 111.4 106.4 131.6 74.1 36.2 0
1990 906,737 4,611,609 .197 541 .191 107.1 180.3 214.3 246.4 66.0 30.8 0
1107[1, (1) Lava from Gilbert Associate$ '"Lemsad and Lneeby, forecast for tie City of Dcatoe"
(2) Additional It !.'V from Coeaaea Peal owlear unit ((.7t of "SOW)
(3) Additional 400 Nt Iran Gibbons Creek Lignite Unit
(4) "Percentage Sara" allocated accotdlal to prericua yeae's load oo VITA systu
(5) based on City of Denton installed capacity of 111 !if wit! oo rstiromats.
(6) 9MTA energy requirement reduced by difference betress Gilbert forecast and It we and Vetstar forecast
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't' ''}a 1 w~ (w,'il vk~J'°b ~.i~C *'6.E t>~Xa.' YT3tT {!"$'t ?r i4,y' h,.i r'`J i~.~ 7
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'
C ITY OF DEN'r N
toad Vs. CaaabilitY [1
YEAR DEHAND PLUS 1,L% DEFICIT 2
118.7 137 0
1980
128.4 148 0
1981
140.0 161 0
1982
152.0 175 2
1983
164.4 189 16
1984
1985 177.1 204 31
185.0 213 40
1986
1987 191.9 221 48
•
199.2 229 56
1988
206.6 238 65
1989
214.3 246 73
1990
NOTES: (1) Based on revised forecast - GAI
(2) Based on 173 MW installed capacity
with no planned retirements
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y TABLE
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CITY OF DENnW
>totttltial IInita fo Shared Yutchae_e
Texas
2 4i8 COAL 9/ a 2/78
SAN ANTONIO PUB SER M pEELY 1 100 OGAS 9/74 3/78
BRYAN CITY OF DAN*BY 738 COAL 12/77 4/78
TEXAS POWER & LIGHT (TU> MTI LO 3 750 COAL 12/77 6/78
TEXAS POWER A LIGHT (TU) MART IN LAKE 2 317 COAL 12/79 6/78
6/78 6/7@
SOUTHWESTERS! PUB 5ER4 HARft,llX3T0lE 2 53 4 GAS
V A 2 7150 COAL 12/79 2/79
TEXAS BOCK POW POWER ER & & LIGHLIGHT DEPT T (TU) ~TINLAKE 5 0 COAL
6 5558 COAL 3/78 3/79
HOUSTON TEXAS LIGHTING & POWER PARISH 3/79 6/7.
g/79
LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY ~E?EE 1 9/75 5 490 { OIL
GULF STATES UTILITIES 550 COAL, 1/79 12/79
CENTRAL POWER & LIGHT (CSW) WELSH CREEK 2 528 COAL 2/90 2/88
SOUTHWESTERN ELEC PWR (CSW> WELSH 409 COAL.. 6/79 4/90
BRAZOS ELECTRIC POWER COOP SAN MIGUEL i 317 COAL 6/80 6/80
HARRIElGTON 3 12/79 6/80
SOUTHNEST£RSI PI~B SERV
LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY FOLVUTH TTEXAS i 1250 LmI V 19/80 i0/98
HOUSTON LIGHTING & FCM1IER SPARISH 7 600 ccrAt_ 3/01 12/80
"JSTON LIGHTING & POWER 4 545 COAL 4181 1/81
XAS POWER & LIGHT (TU) S#VKWN 1150 l'FAEIV 1/86 1/81
TEXAS POWER & LIGHT (TU) oleB ECHE PEAK 1 4" COAL 6/92 4/81
TEXAS POWER POOL WELSH CF.EEK i 528 COAL 2/82 2/82
SOUTHWEST£R1I ELEC PWR (CSW) WELSH 3 1250 URAEIV 1/92 3182
SOUTH TEXAS 2 513 COAL 9/ 0 6/92
HOVSTO?I LIGHTING & POW£F. SOUTH PLAINS 1 il83
SOUTHWESTERN PUB SERV COMAPICHE PEAK 2 1150 URA11/82
TEXAS F4WER & LIGHT (TU> PLAPIT 1 750 COAL 3/93 3/93
HOUSTON LIGHTIf10 & P'?lKF TWIN X OAK 1 751) COAL 1/91 1/94
WN
TEXAS POWER L LIGHT (TU) 700 COAL 12/78 1/e4
FOREST GROVE 1 6/84 2/e4
TEXAS F•Ot~1ER ,r LIGHT (TU> :.qp COAL
SOUTHWESTERN EL£C FWR (CSW) PLANTYX 2 750 Cm 3/85 3/84
HO USTOtI LIGHT 1110 & POWER LINS1T£D 2 2011 CN)L 6/ 84 6/84
TEXAS POWER POOL 4 7L'9 (•QRL 12/7? 2/95 MARTI TEXAS PCYIER & LIGHT (TU) ALLEN LAKE 3/80 3/95
ALLEN N i liSU ItF.AEE
HOUSTON LI4jHTISh3 & POWER 1 300 COAL 6/84 6/n5
LL R COLOPS00 RIVER AUTHORITY p8to MIGUEL 2 4OO CrAL 6/83 6/95
TEXAS PO!•IER Pnel- 2 1513 COAL 0 6/87
SOUTHWESTERN PUB SERV SOUTH FtAtE15 750 r.OP4_ 1/015 1."86
TEXAS POWER & LIGHT (TIU) 0*ITEO 1 750 1/92 i/86
O1AKYEF.SION i 640 COAL 3197 3/437
TEXAS POWER & LIGHT (TU) LAKE EE OAK
WEST TEXAS UTILITIES (CSW) LA
~i