HomeMy WebLinkAbout1985-1989
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LONG RANGE
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F xNANCIAL FORECAST
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1985-1989
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I CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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1985-1989
CITY MANAGER
G. CHRIS HART UNG
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PREPARED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
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CITYof DENTON, TEXAS MUNICIPAL BUILDING / DENTON, TEXAS 76201 / TELEPHONE (817) 566-8200
July 27, 1984
The Honorable Mayor and
Members of the City Council
City of Denton
Dear Sirs:
I respectfully submit this 1985-1989 Lon Range Financial Forecast for your
consideration. I believe the orecas will prove to be a va ua a policy and
management tool in matters bearing on financial planning.
Some particular benefits that can be expected from the forecast are:
o Policy decisions may be made with recognition of long-term financial
impact.
j o Significant trends in the financial condition of the City will become
apparent.
1 o Bond rating agencies will have the opportunity to note the extensive,
k systematic financial planning performed by the City of Denton.
Eft I hope you find the forecast useful as you consider the financial issues
a before you this fiscal year.
jj R ctf submitt d
I~
G. C r s Hartung
' u City Manager
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I, INTRODUCTION. page I
A. Table of Variable Values , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3
II. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK , . , , , , , , , , , . 5
A. Forecast Detail. . . . . . . . . . . . 8
B. Plots and Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
III, FINANCIAL STRATEGIES . . . . , , , , 37
IV. REVENUE FORECAST. . . . . . . . . . . 39
A. Ad Valorem Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
B. Other Tax. . . . . . 42
C. Facility Fees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
D. Fines and Fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
E, Licenses and Permits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
F. Miscellaneous Revenues . . . . . . , . . , , 51
G. Intergovernmental Revenues . . . . . , , , 52
N. Other Fund Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
1. Interest Earned......,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 60
V. EXPENDITURE FORECAST. . . . . . . . . . 61
A. Departmental Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
B. Expenditures to Other Agencies , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 71
C. Miscellaneous Expenditures . . . . . 76
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CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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INTRODUCTION
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CITY OF DENTON _
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
INTRODUCTION
This document is the product of both extensive research and the application of
techniques that have been proven in practice by other cities. The forecast is
submitted as a tool to be used to identify general financial trends, given a
field of reasonable assumptions. It is by no means a prediction of the
4 precise dollar-level of any financial category in any particular year.
The most important purpose of the forecast is to serve as an "early warning
system" that allows citizens, policy makers, and managers sufficient time to
study potential financial problems and to then make informed choices.
Assumptions
The financial projections in this forecast are based upon a network of
assumptions, a change in any one of which could render the projections
invalid, Particular assumptions are noted in the latter sections of this
document. General assumptions are:
s, 1. City services will be maintained at current levels and only those new
programs to which the City is presently committed will be adopted in
the future.
2. There will be no severe change in the local economy.
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3. There will be no major annexations.
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ii 4. Any change in assessed valuation of property will not be offset by a
change in the effective tax rate.
l S. Claims against unfunded liabilities will not exceed historical trends.
6. No new debt service obligations will be incurred and existing debt
will be retired on schedule.
These and other assumptions throughout the forecast are made solely for the
purpose of establishing a framework for projections. They are not policy
W recommendations. Most certainly, they are not attempts to infringe upon what
is in many cases the prerogative of the City Council.
CITY OF 4ENTON I
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
INTRODUCTION •v
Page Two
Methodology
Both revenue and expenditure projections have been developed In a systematic
manner,
Revenues for the past ten years were restated to fit the revenue categories used in the current accounting system. These sources were
aggregated into
revenue categories used in this document, then stored in a computerized data
base, and finally were subjected to various forms of analysis. Several
significant revenues were modeled using computer-supported statistical
techniques. Other revenues were projected by deterministic approaches and
expert judgement. The statistical approach, for example, was used for sales
tax revenues while the deterministic approach was used to project transfers
from other funds. Expert opinion was relied upon to project some volatile
revenues such as that from interest income. ~i
Where the statistical approach was applied, many like items were forecasted in
total rather than individually because the practice, beyond being expedient,
generally improves accuracy because aggregate errors tend to cancel one
another. The variables used in this technique are listed, along with their
sources and projected values, at the table at the end of this section.
The expenditure projections employ only one of these 'variables, the Regional
Consumer Price Index, in their forecast method. Here the rate of projected
change in the CPI was converted to an inflation multiplier and applied to the
pertinent year's expenditures to obtain the base of the next
year's
expenditures. An additional calculation accounted for incremental additions
of new costs and completed the projecton procedure, Here, it is essential
that a qualification be made clear if the forecast is to be understood.
j Expenditures relfect only committed costs. Committed costs are defined as
those costs which are unavoidable If present planning and policy mandates are
continued. Mandates are viewed as deriving from Federal and State
legislation, Council action, or adopted City plans or policies.
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In this respect, the expenditure estimates cannot be regarded as an attempt to
forecast total costs in the future, but rather, they must be considered r~
approximations of minimum future costs.
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2 CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
INTRODUCTION
Page Three
TABLE OF
VARIABLE VALUES
1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
Denton Pop. 51,684 60,568 62,688 640882 67,153
Personal
Income D/FW 65 61 66 72 19
CPI D/FW 369 396 421 448 413
Inflation
Multiplier 1.016 1.074 1.066 1.061 1.057
Sources and Co(wents
Population estimates were obtained from the North Texas Council of
Governments. Linear interpolation was employed to determine yearly values.
Personal income history for the Dallas/Fort Worth Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Area was obtained from the Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Projections of the rate of change were obtained from the State
Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating.
Consumer Price Index history for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA was obtained from
the Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections were
6r obtained from the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating.
Inflation multipliers were derived from rates of change in the CPI projections.
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CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
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i CITY OF DENTON -
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FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
The 1985-89 Long-Range Financial Forecast projects the following operating
balances:
1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
Revenues: $16,876,399 $181811,387 $20,4710326 $22,153,602 $26,635,383
Expenditures: 16,876,399 18,795,079 20,429,192 22,109,055 23,717,406
Balance: $ -0- $ 16,308 $ 42,134 $ 44,546 $ (82,023)
Positive balances are recorded for every year except Fiscal Year 1988-89. In
that year, expenditures are projected to exceed revenues by $82,023, primarily
because significant new expenses are anticipated by the Police and Fire
Departments and because debt service obligations will increase by $409,419
over the previous year. The overall forecast, then, indicates that revenues
will generally keep pace with minimal expenditures but that major increases in
the number of programs, the level of program services, or the amount of debt
services will bring deficits vnl ess corresponding adjustments are made in
either revenues or expenditures.
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Revenues
Several characteristics of the revenue component of the forecast are
noteworthy. First, Ad Valorem Revenue in Fiscal Year 1984-85 increases only
,i 6.7 percent above that of the previous year. Such moderate growth is
disappointing given the phenomenal explosion in new building construction in
" Denton last year. The point' Is underscored by the fact that the Appraisal
District's estimate of assessed valuation for Fiscal Year 1984-85 is 40
42 million below this office's own assessed valuation estimate for the same
period.
The forecast assumes that the Appraisal District estimates will better reflect
actual appreciation in assessed valuation in Fiscal Year 1985-86. This, in
conjunction with decreasing debt service obligations borne by the City,
accounts for the estimated 20 percent increase in Ad Valorem Revenue in Fiscal
Year 1985-86. For the next two years, growth is estimated at about 12 percent
a year, but in the final forecast year of 1988-89 current revenues are
expected to increase by little more than 3 percent because of the
above-mentioned increase in debt service in that year,
In the category of Other Taxes, Sales Tax Revenue is projected to have strong
E; growth, peaking at 12 percent growth in Fiscal Year 1985-84 and then leveling
li off at 9 percent yearly increase during latter years. ,
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CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Fee-related revenues are estimated to have a rather moderate growth rate of
about 8.5 percent after a near 30 percent increase in Fiscal Year 1984-85.
This initial jump is largely attributable to new revenues from fire
inspections.
Miscellaneous Revenue is expected to increase only marginally in the first two
forecast years, but step up significantly in the last three years by an
average of about 8.5 percent per year. Inter governmental Revenue is
projected at a slow 5 percent annual rate of growth both because of absolute
reductions in some categories and because of uncertainty about funding levels
in other categories. Federal grants are an example of the latter.
The largest revenue category, Other Fund Transfers, demonstrates growth rates
of 7.6, 9.2, 4.8, 4.9, and 7.5 percent in the five forecast years. The
stalling of growth in Fiscal Years 1986-88 is the result of several factors, a
chief among these being reduced growth in capital construction in the Electric
Fund, decreasing growth in the cost of administrative services, and
conservative estimates of future transfers from the Bond and Revenue Sharing
Funds. The increase in growth in the final forecast year is the consequence
of increased Return of Investment payments from the Water and Sewer Division
for the Water Treatment facility scheduled for construction that year.
Plots of historical and projected revenue trends are found at the end of this
section. Immediately following the revenue plots are bar charts that
illustrate each major revenue category's proportion to total revenues over the
forecast period.
Expenditures
Growth among expenditure categories is not nearly so disparate as growth among
revenue categories because, in many cases, expenditure projections are driven
a by inflation alone. This method provides generally uniform growth, but
significant exceptions occur in General Government, Finance, Police, Fire, and
Parks categories.
General Government increases. beyond the rate of inflation are generally „
attributable to the reorganization of other division costs (e.g. Building
Operations, Energy Management, Word Processing Center) into the General
Government category. The single exception here is an increase in the service
level of the economic development program. This project begins in Fiscal Year
1985-86 and is estimated to cost $20,000.
The Finance Department anticipates a reorganization and an increase in service
demands such that increases of about 17 and 13 percent are respectively
anticipated for Fiscal Years 1984-85 and 1985-86. Afterwards, increases are
expected to be well below the general rate of inflation,
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6 CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Polie 1984-85 and expenditure then decli nesh stoadi ly to about 8 epercent pi n cFi sc al n Year c1988Y89r
Fire expenditures Jump some 14 percent in Fiscal Year 1985-86 and then range
by increase a operational
between 15 and - Department expenditupercent in res in Fiscal at Year 1985-86 is This large
Department's expenditures in mostly udriven iby~incret se service i~gdemandsin both
The Parks and Recreation Department's expenditure exceed general
inflation-rate growth because new facilities are scheduled for completion
(causin increased operating -88• During these years, growth costs) in i expenditures e averages 181 percent. and
1987
seotio~nd immediately pertaining followi9 those of revenues. found at the end of this
Forecast
A detailed reporting of forecasted revenue and expenditure begins on the next have four periods in placesofwhich
itemized projections1n PlgotsQand charts close s the
section.
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CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE FORECAST w
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Revenue
Category 1984-65 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
AD VALOREM TAXES
Current $3,884,402 $49744,420 $5,405,723 $600169779 $6,194,349
Delinquent 168,000 179,183 193,662 2096825 226,506
Penalty and Interest 18,900 840211 91,016 98,613 106,452 -
TOTAL 41131,302 59007,814 5,690,401 6,325,217 61527,307
OTHER TAXES
Sales 4,328,800 4,6791784 591159268 51592,067 601060411
Franchise-Lone Star Gas 230,000 273,624 299,910 3271116 355,274 of
Franchise- General Tele. 142,771 1580265 1709440 182,421 194,368 {
Franchise-Cable T.Y. 759769 790557 83,535 870712 92,098
Mixed Beverage 68,800 769055 82,954 89,748 96,514
Hotel Occupancy Tax 2380500 248,040 257,962 2684280 2799011
Bingo 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 100000 {I
TOTAL 51094,640 5,5259325 61020,069 6,557,350 70133,676
FACILITY FEES
Swimming Pool Receipts 280000
Cemetery Fees 100000 all.
;'•i Community Building Rent 25,000
Airport 41,000
Recreation Program 25,000
Athletic Program Fees 10,000
Ambulance Fees 1009000
Williams Square Fees 150600
Fire inspection 90,000
TOTAL 3441600 376,859 406,892 4389505 4730279
MI
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FINES AND FEES
Municipal Court 6009000 "
Animal Control 42,460 - I
Auto Pound 380000
Court Cost 0 " " "
Police Escort 121000 • "
TOTAL $ 6929460 $ 704,207 $ 7560126 $ 8080416 $ 861,438 ,
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8 CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE FORECAST
Revenue
Catego 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
S S
LICENSES AND PERMITS
S
Zoning f 78,000 $
Tax Certificates 15.000 " "
E Wine and Seer
Vital Statistics 12,000
Building Permits 200,000
` Miscellaneous Permits 180000
Excavation Permits 16,300
Loading Zones 1000
Electric/Plumbing ?6,000
TOTAL 3:5,400 373,818 410,694 4489730 488,059
MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES g,000
Parking
Electric Inspections 47,600
Plumbing Inspections
Nr-
Street Cuts 350,000
Rents 1,500
Miscellaneous 100,000
Sale of Land 0
Sale of Fixed Assets 9,000
!f TOTAL 5920100 621,630 6839673 7479565 813,833
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0 INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE
County Contr-Civil Defense 15,240 16,0070 16,8080 17,6480 18,5300
County Contr-Library
County Contr-Ambulance 166,883 1750227 1839989 193,188 202,847
Fed. Contr-Civil Defense 30,499 32,024 331625 35,306 37,072
Small Cities Contr-Ambu. 36,3830 38,20 40,110 42,1 1 44,220
Grants
TOTAL $ 249,010 S 261,460 f 274,534 S 288,260 S 302,673 -
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CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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REVENUE FORECAST
Revenue .y
Category 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
TR4NSFERS FROM OTHER FUNDS
Electric System Fund
Administrative Services $ 1,267,866 $ 1,361,688 $ 1,451,559 $ 1,540,105 S 1,6?7,891
Return on Net Investment 1,667,259 2,020,438 29137,579 21262,602 214119325
Water and Sewer System Fund
Administrative Services 805,581 865,194 9220297 978,557 1,0349335
Return on Net Investment 190,087 795,674 801,923 823,338 1,0069304
Sanitation Operations Fund
Administrative Services 1188510 127,260 1350680 1439957 152,162 ,i
Bond Fund 167,463 1000000 1000000 100,000 100,000
Revenue Sharing Fund 529,121 570,000 5700000 570,000 5700000 1
593450887 5,840,274 6,1199038 6,418,559 6,902,011
~ TOTAL
INTEREST EARNED
Interest Earned 709000 100,000 1100000 121,000 1336000
TOTAL, 700000 100,000 1100000 121,000 133,000 e!
i. GRAND TOTAL $160876,399 $18,811,387 $200471,326 $22,153,602 =23_,635,383 t~
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST _
EXPENDITURE FORECAST
DEPARTMENT 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
General Government S 1,219584 s 1,337,079 $ 1359,326 $ 1x381,245 S 1 402,976
` Legal 2620311 2810722 300,316 3180635 336,797
_ Personnel 288,286 309,619 3300054 350,187 370,148
Planning 2,067,674 2,330,901 2,430,969 2,607,628 20701,095
Finance 2 940,361 3,211,648 3,423,616 3,6320457 3,8390507
Public -
Publc Works 3,0380230 3,348,928 3,6719443 3,970$82 4,287,620
Police Fire 3,135,304 39799,025 4,350,561 4,791,183 5,394,816
Fire
Parks and Recreation 16120947 1,629680 1101,701 2,744,504 2x786,941
Library
` TOTAL 15,403,665 17,2450004 18,7960594 20,394,614 21,921,329
OTHER AGENCIES 902000 46,660 1031040 109,325 115,556
Health 1039800 111,481 118,839 126,088 133,275
Community Agencies Bureau 118,057 122,780 1270691 132,799 138,111
7 Visitor Cultural Cl Confederation 118,067 163,463 127,691 132,799 138*111
11 195,419
Appraisal District ct ~ -
TOTAL 582,114 617,164 651,512 685,892 720,472
MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 401000 42,960 45,795 48,589 51,358
,,r~. Financial Audit 80,000 85,920 91,591 979178 102,717
Bad Debt 30,000 32,220 341347 361442 38,519
Unemployment Benefit 160,000 171,840 183,101 1941356 205,434
€ Disabiiabili lty I Insunsurancerance 0,090 75,181 80,142 859031 890877
D
Transfers Out 5002,615 150,000 15(,000 1502000 150,000
501000 50,000 501000 50,000 506000
i ri Contingency
{ Salary Adjustment 299,620 321,792 343,030 363,955 394,700
0 0 0 0
Revenue Study 81000
Domino Ha11 3,000 3,000 39000 3,000 3,000
TOTAL 11243,235 932,913 981,086 19028,551 19075,605
Less Transfer to -
0 f
General Project Fund * (352,615) 0 p - 0 _ O
GRAND TOTAL $16,876,3,'9 518,795,079 $20,429,192 $22,109,055 $23,717,406
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* To be funded from prior year retainage.
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CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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Total Revenues and Expenditures ~i
24.000.000 (1985-1989 Estimated)
23,000,000
22,000,000
21,000.000
20A0 =
r-~
19A00,000 w I
18,000,000 lei
4' ! ~ I
` 17,000,000
16,000.000
15=000
r'ah' 14,000,000
. 13,OOU,000 • ,
1$000.000 Revenues ti
M . Expenditures
11,000,000 M
~ f
I 10.000,000
S.W MO k
9,000,000 1
7,000,000
i~
6.000.000 w!:
5.000.000 I
114
4,000.000 ~
3 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1968 19E'
1 Year
12 CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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Total Revenues - Forecast
24=000 y,.. Actual
23,000,000 _
22,000,000
i
21rp004000
e 20,0OO,Or'0 ~
19,000,000
? 18,000,000
i
17,000,000
16,000000
15,000.000
J, A
14,0001)00
4 13,000,000
12,000,000
11,000,000
i
10,000,000
_i 9,000.000
8,000,000
J 7,000,000
6,000,000
F
5,000,000
. z
i 41000,000 _ J
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Year
CITY OF DENTON 13
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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M
Revenues: Ad Valorem Taxes - s,
Actual
6,600.000
6,400= it
6 2L x,000 ~ .
6,000,000
5,800,000
5,600,000
5.400=
5,200,000 r i
5,000.000
4,800=
x,600,000
4.400,000 r
~ r1
4.?.OO=
4AOO= I
3,800.000
3,6001000
i r1, 41 '
a ° 3,400=
3,200,000
3=000
2800.000
2,600,000 1
R I
2.400=
2200,000 s
2000,000
- ~ ~.eoaoo0 , ~
1.400.000 r I
1.200.000
1=A00
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 1984 1965 1966 198? 1988 196(
Year
14 CITY OF UENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Revenues: Other Taxes - • - Forecast
Actual
~ 7,200,000
7.0O =
6,800,000
I 6,600,000
r 6,400.000
6,200,000 ~
6,000.000
5,800,000
a 5,600,000
5,400,000
5,200.000
5,000,000 S
4.800.000
4400.000
4,400.000
.
` 4,200,000
j 4.000,000
3.800,000
3.600,000
3,400000
3,200,000
3,000,000
2.800.000
2,600.000
2.400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
10",000
1,606,000
1,400,000
1.200,000
1.000.000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1480 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987 14ee 1989
Year
CITY OF DENTON 15
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST f
Revenues: Facility Fees ' • FOfECafl
..E.. Actual
460=
460,000
♦
440,000
420,000
400,000
380,000
I 360,000 ♦
• wl l
340,000 1
i
320,000 1 t~
300,000 1
280.000
260,000
240,000
1 220,000
200,000
'180,000
1
ooo
/y
140,000
120,000 t
100,000 ` _
80,000
60=
1 40,000
20= ~ q
1979 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19864:
Year
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16 CITY OF OENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Revenues: Fines and Fees - • - Forecast
Actual
900,000
_ 850,000
•t
800p00 I"
750,000 I
I
700= f
6506000
1
600=
55a000
f ~
450,000
I -J 400=G j
=000
i f
300=
250,000
t~200=
150A00
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1560 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1966 1987 1988 1989
Year
CITY OF OENTON 17
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
Revenues; Licenses and Permits - • - Forecast,
Actual
w
500=
I -
48010~0CO y0 ~
4604
4'40.000 ~
4201000 .
40o=
t
380.000 d
360,000 !100
k
340,400
i{
320,000 I # I
' 300,000
280,000
' 4' 01 260,000
240,000 1
1f
220,000 1
xo=
1
'1801000 ti
i
•160=0
'140,000 #
e
Vo= r l
1001000 -
11
80=
60A00
40,000
20,000 _ i---f--r
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19e0 19ei 1482 1983 1984 VS5 1986 1967 1968 1485
Y~,sr
18 CITY OF DENTON
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LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
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Revenues: Miscellaneous • Forecast
Actual
850,wo
80O= ~ ! -
i
75Q000 Q
7D0=
650,000
600X)00 i r
550,000
r,
500X)00
450,000
S 400,000
350,000
300,000
25Q000
200,000
f 150.000
100,000
50,0(0 I I-- --r
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 1982 1483 1984 1965 1966 1987 1988 1969'-2
a
Year
CITY OF DENTON 19
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LONG RANGE fINANCIAL FORECAST
Revenues: Intergovernmental Forecast
-f- Aotuel
310=
300,000 %
290A00 %
280M f,
270= 40 00
260,000 , 00
250x000
240,000 °
230MO
220,000 F
21OPW
200,000 # i
190.000
r
Vo= e
17OM
160
A00
.`~t. 150,000
140,000
'13OA00 , i
110,000
100,000 P
90,000 «
80,000
70,000 1 I
60,000
50,000 ti
40=
30= r +
20,000 t
1D.bo0
1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987 1986 1989..
i 1975 V76
Year
20 CITY OF DENTON -
M LONG RANGE FINANCIAL Fi)RECAST
. • ~ Forecast
Revenues: Other Fund Transfer Actual
•
7,000,000
000,000
6,600,000 P
. 6,400A00 ~
6,200,000 ♦ •
6,000,000 j40
5,900,000
5,600,000 ♦
j 5,400x000 •
~ I
5,200,000
3,000,000
4~OOA00
4.600=0
4,400,000
42WPW
• ~ ~ 4,000A00
r 3,8-0,000
3,600,000
3,200,000
3,000A00
2,800,000
2,600,000
2.400A~ r
2,200,000
Iw 2,000,000
1800,000
I1 1.WO'00O
lge2 ear 1983 1984 1985 1996 1987 1988 1989 .
11600,000
1978 1976 1977 1976 1979 1980 1981 Y
21
CITY OF DENTON
N
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
si
Pei cent of Total Revenues
Fiscal Years 1984-1989
Ad Valorem Taxes
Other Taxes
ri
Facility Fees r~
a
s<~
Fines and Fees
r License and Permits
® FY 1984-85+
FY 1985-861
Q FY 1966-80141
® FY 1987-88
Miscellaneous Revenue ® FY 1988-8;
Intergovernmental Revenue
~i
si
Other Fund Transfer
Interest Earned _
•4
r--r--1 ! i-~
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
22 CITY OF OENTON
i
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Total Expenditures Forecast
Actual
l - 24,000,000
h I
` 23,000,000
fl 22,000.000
21,000,000
20,000.000 /
~ ~ 18,000,000 /
17.000,000
1d=000 /
ti ~~y'~, 15.000.000
14,000,000
13,000,000
12,006.000
11,000,000
10,000,000
1 9.000,000
8,600,000
7,000.000
t
6,000.000
5,0 000
a
4=000
Y 1979 1976 1971 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987 1988 1969
Year
23
CITY OF D£NTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
M
Expenditures, General Government - - Forecast
Actual
1,700=0 _
` 1,650,000 ~
1,600000
1,550,000
I
1,500,,000
1.450,000
1,400,000 ~y
I ~
1,350,000
1,300000 I 4
i 1,250,000 . 1
1200,000
1,150,000 /
1,10OXO
a r• t 1050.000
i ~ ~ < j 1.000,000
' 9504000
900 000
850,000
800.000
750,000
700,000 d i
600.000 t.
550400
500 E, d
450,000
400,000 F l
350,000
300,000
250000
204,000 ,
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987 1968 1969
Year
E ~
24 CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
~ ~
Expenditures: Legal Forecast
Ag-tual
I 410,000 r .
400.000 ♦ _
, f
- M000
M000 '
- 370,000
360,000
330,000
340,000 ~
330.000
320,000
310x000
300,000
290.000
2eo,000
270,000
y 260.000
4 .t 250.000
240.000
1230.000
220,000
210,000 f
200.000
190.000
~ . ,eo~ooo
17om _
16oAOO _
,5orooo
140=
WXO
12=
110,000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19eo 1961 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1967 1489 1989
Year
25
CITY OF DENTON -
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
r
.a
j
Expenditures: Personnel - • - Forecastl
Actual
3401000
3201)00 •
300=
2A0,000 I r 1
i
i 260A00 I 1~
240,000
1
220x000
t
2001000 lwq
tF
1601000
140,000 l
120=
•
100A00 #
I0= i
6nlooo
401000 ` 1...
R~.
201000 '
R*i ~
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1966 1987 1968 1969 ~ i
Year
26 CITY OF OENTON
i
I`rN
f
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Expenditures: Planning and Development
Forecast
390~OOp Actual
375,000
•
360,000
~I
345,000
330000 r L
315.000
300,000
285.000
270.000
a y, + 255000
240,000
225,000
j . ~ ~ :110,000
I 195,000
1
1 ~ 1601000
i
t 165.000
T
150x=
135,000
120,000
90000
3.
79,000
60,000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 1982 1983 1184 1965 1966 1987 1988 1989
Year
k CITY OF DENTON 27
I
I
rn
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
r
W4
1
Expenditures: Finance - • - Forecast
2.900,000 -f- Actual ~
2,700,000 ~ -
2,600M , M
i
2,500,000
2,300,000 y
2,200,000 I
f i 2,100,000 0
2,000.000 f 1
" IXO= 1 I
1.700X)00 1
1 p
. ° ~ 1,600X)00
` 1.500,000
!i
1,400.000 a!
1~OA00 E~
1,200X)00
1,100.000 R
1X)00,000
r
900X)00 ~ J
800000 r i
( 700X)00
600X)00
a `
i f -4
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 IM"'.
Year
28 CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
I
Expenditures: Public Works • Forecast
-•■F-• Actual
3,900x000 •
3,800.000 3,700,000
3,600,000
3.500.000
3,400= f
. 3,300000 ~
I 3,200.000
i 3,•100,000
3,000.000
f 2,900.000
- 2,800.000
2,700.000
~y~; 2,600,000
i1•. 20500,000
q 2,400,000
' j J 2,300,000
2,200,000
2,100.000
2,000,000
ro 1.900,000
r 1,800.000
1,700,000
1.600,000
j 1.500,000
6 ,.400,000
f 100.000 -
b200.000
1,100,000
1,000'000 .
900.000 Y
1979 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1969
Year
CITY OF DENTON 29
i
I
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
M
01
Expenditures; Police - • - Foracast j
actual
4,400,000 w
4,200.000 /
4,000,000
I
3.800.000
3,600,000 r/
3,400,000 /
i ~
3,200.000 /
3,000,000 ~ ~ ;
2.800,000
' e".. Z400,000
400,WV
~
Z ~~y~AYOyb
2,E~0,000
10=000 F ~
1,600;000
1,400.000
1 1,200,000
i
1,000,000
iI
I 814000 T- - --i-
j 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1589
Year
30 CITY OF OENTON
w
._J
N
I _ LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
i
Expenditures: Fire - Forecast
Actual
5,400,000
5,200,000
_ I
5,(,00,000 I -
4XO= !
4,600.000
4,400,000 f
4200,000 I
4,400,000
I
3,800000
f I
" 3,600,000
3,400,000
' 3,200,000
3,000,000
2,800,000
!,j 2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
r4
1,800,000
1,600,000
1 ~ 1,400,000
F
1 11?A0,000
i ~ 1,000,000
1! e00,000
} I t- I ---H----i A
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 9983 1964 1985 1966 1987 1988 1969
Year
r
CITY OF DVITON 31
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Expenditures: Parks and Recreation Actu&l i
2,200,000 ~
2,100,000
2,000XO
1,900,000 ~
1,800,000
11700,000 ♦
1,600,000
1,500A00 • r i
1,400A00
'~:r sl
1,300,000
.Sfg.i.
m- 1,200,000
1,100=0 r s
r
j=000 f'
e4
900,000 a
eooAoo t
1
700,000 r~
600,000 4
500,000
400A00
300,000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1562 1983 196,4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Year
32 CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Expenditures: Library - • Forecast
•-i- Actual
800,000
750,000 r♦ _
700,000 ar
♦
650,000
600,000 r
5501000
500,000
` 450,000--
400,000.
y
..1
35x000
300=
250,000
200,000
k ktil _
150=)
1001000--
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987 1968 1589
Year
CITY OF OENTON 33
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
~A
q
Expenditures: Other Agencies - • Forecast
Actual
750,000 r+ .
700A00
i
650,000 r
I
600A00
fl
550000
500000
450,000
C~ S 400,000 t
350,000 R 1
300000
250,000
t
200=
t~
wX0
'100000
50,000 t
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 1962 1983 1964 1985 1986 1987 1968 1989 y
Year
34
CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
Expenditures, Miscellaneous - • - Forecast
Actual
- 1,laaoo0 ~
1,ceom or
1.0004000
95a000
900,000 f
i
ew,ooo r
_ SOOMO
750,000
1
700,000
f
! 650,000
l
600,000 j
_ , 550,000 j
450.000
400,000
350,000
300.000
250.MO
200,000
s r~ 150,000
t u 1004000
50,000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 1984 1985 1986 1987 1968 1969
Year
r CITY OF DENTON - 35
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
6"1
Percent of Total Expenses ® FY 1984
Fiscal Years 1984-1989 FY 1985-86
❑ FY 1986-L
® FY 1987-F
General Government ® FY 1968-89
Legal
Personnel "
k7
Planning and Development
Finance
Public Works
Police
Fire {
11
a{
Parks and Recreation r
Library "
Other Agencies
Miscellaneous Expenses
+--r`---; i 4 ~-4-- -
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
36 CITY OF DENTON
r
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
1 M
v I~
FINANCIAL: STRATEGIES
I C
c
E
I
CITY OF DENTON -
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES
The strategies that follow have been adopted for the purpose of maximizing
General Fund performance and integrity. They are presented in this document
because, while their implementation may have immediate effect in some cases,
full benefits are expected to be realized only in the long term.
Growth
The City is presently experiencing a period of unprecidented growth both in
the number of new citizens and the amount of structural construction within
its boundaries. Prudence requires that the City adopt a strategy of
N minimizing the financial burden such growth places upon public funds.
Rapid development of property near, but outside of current city limits also
requires that City staff carefully evaluate the fiscal impact that these
proximate communities will have upon the City. Where appropriate, annexation con bumay in a chs cased careful protect
t ' physical and
ofC h
and benefits financial of annexat on mwil l
attend staff recommendations.
r ~ Bond Rating
The City's financial structure and reporting system will be further developed
so that bond rating agencies will grant improved credit ratings for the City.
The objective of this strategy is to reduce the cost of debt service by
obtaining more favorable interest rates in future general obligation issues.
' General Fund Balance
To preserve General Fund Integrity, the Fund Balance should be maintained at a
level equivalent to approximately 6 to 10 percent of annual operating expenses.
Management Systems
Management systems will continually be reviewed for their impact upon _
financial performance. In this 11ght0 the Energy Management/Operations
Analysis Division has been given responsibility for a comprehensive review of
City work processes. This new fiscal year, the Division will conduct
productivity education programs, perform operational audits, and develop
measurement criteria for productivity evaluation. Each of which is expected
to contribute to cost containment and improved organizational effectiveness.
CITY OF DENTON - 37
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
STRATEGIES -
Page Two
Financial-Management Information
The Finance Department will develop a financial fund monitoring system that
will identify current financial funds that threated long range financial
ability. The system will employ various financial and environmental
indicators so that a broader financial picture may be observed than would
otherwise be possible.
objective The City will further develop its fixed asset accounting capability. HeCire, an
infrastructural needs, both for new capital construction and for recovery from
deferred capital maintenance. Capability will also be developed to provide
needs can be documented capital
information detailed n be evaon the luated 'and- cost a very
recoi c
productivity a
The City will implement the recently approved Fleet Maintenance Program. This
system will generate detailed, integrated financial information allowing
managers to control the operating and maintenance costs of the City's
vehicular equipment.
Employee Benefits
The Personnel Department intends to perform a comprehensive review of employee
benefits to ensure present programs make the best possible use of available
funds. Several innovations in the administration of benefit programs will be
reviewed. Two that offer strong promise of cost reduction are pre-hospital-
ization certification and post-hospitalization service auditing. These
programs are aimed at identifying unwarranted charges for health care services
by the providers of those services.
Economic Development "
:I
In conjunction with the City of Denton Chamber of Commerce, the City has
initiated a Strategic Economic. Development Program. A principal objective of TI
the program is to encourage high quality commercial and industrial enterprises
to join the Denton community, thereby preserving the long run vitality of the
Denton economy.
Ele.aents of the programs are an introductory slide show, a City of Denton Fact
Book, and promotional messages to selected business audiences: -Tn certain
cases, the City may also assist eligble applicants in their efforts to secure
relocation and construction capital by means of Industrial Revenue Bonds,
38 CITY OF DENTON -
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE FORECAST
L
r
rt
1 6~
1 , I
d
~ j
I
y~1
A
CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
REVENUE
I
CATEGORY AD VALOREM TAXES - CURRENT I
REVENUE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 # 1988-89 1
I_ I $3,884,402 1 $4,744,420 1 $5,405,723 1 $6,016,779 I $6,194,349 1
Description
All property, -eal personal, mixed tangible, intangible, annexations,
additions, and improvements to property located within the taxing unit's
jurisdiction shall be subject to taxation on January 1 of each year.
The City Council, following the final passage of the appropriations
ordinance shall set the tax rate and levy for the current fiscal year
beginning October l and continuing through the following September 30th.
The Council may each year, by ordinance, exempt taxes on automobiles from
the tax levy.
By September 1 or as soon thereafter as practicable, the Council adopts a
tax rate for the current tax year. The annual tax rate must be set by
ordinance, resolution, or order depending on the method prescribed by law
for adoption of a law by the governing body, The Council may not adopt a
tax rate that exceeds the tax rate as calculated by Section 26.04 of the
1981 Tax Code by more than 3.0 percent until it has held a public hearing
i. on the proposed increase and otherwise complied with Section 26.06 of the
Code. A vote on the ordinance setting the tax rate must be separate from
the vote adopting the budget.
Assumptions
1. The tax rate will be 560 per hundred dollars valuation.
2. The delinquency rate will be 4.0 percent.
3. Exemptions will remain at the same level.
4. Assessed valuation will increase according to projection.
Methods
ti
Assessed valuation projections were compiled by regression formula that
i• was driven by population and construction value estimates. Construction
value estimates were derived from trend-line analysis of historical
changes in construction value, adjusting for extraordinary growth in
fiscal years ending 1984 and 85. Having thus derived assessed valuation, -
current tax revenue was taken as the product of assessed valuation, the
tax and collection rates.
CITY OF DENTON 39
i
I
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
! REVENUE SUMMARY
i
REVENUE
CATEGORY AD VALOREM TAXES - DELINQUENT
I PROJECTED I
( REVENUE 1 1984-85 ( 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 I w
I I
I I $168,000 I $179,183 I $193,662 I $209,825 I $226,506 I
Description
Except as for provided by taxing units adopting the split-payment of taxes
method and the postponement of the delinquency date due to late mail out
of tax bills, all taxes are due on receipt of bill and are delinquent if
not paid before February 1 of the year following the year in which imposed.
The governing body of the taxing unit may adopt a procedure in conformance
with applicable statutes, a split-payment option for tax payment as
provided by Y.T.C.A., Title 1, Property Tax Code (1981) Section 31.03.
This option allows a taxpayer to pay one-half (112) of his property taxes
before December 1, and pay the remaining one-half (1/2) of the taxes
without penalty or interest at any time before July 1 of the following ~I
year. If this option is not utilized, taxes are due on receipt of notice
and delinquent as of February 1 of the year following the year in which
imposed. ,
Each year the collector for each unit shall prepare a cumulative and
property is .
current delinquent tax roll for the unit. A person s personal
subject to seizure for the payment of a delincuent tax, penalty and
interest he owes a taxing unit on his property. Such property may be sold
at a tax sale in accordance with the provisions of the State Property Tax
Code.
Assumptions a
0
For the projection period, it is assumed that delinquent taxes will i1
continue to be recovered at a rate of 2.8 percent of the previous year's
tax levy.
Methods to
A Recovery rate of 2.8 percent of the previous year's tax levy was 'I_
established by regression analysis of the historical relationship between :
annual tax levies and delinquent tax colleciton.
I
4
40
CITY OF DEN70N
I
I I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
_ REVENUE SUMMARY
- I REVENUE
I CATEGORY AD VALOREM TAXES - PENALTY AND INTEREST
~I
REVENUE 198419848_1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 l 1988-89
` I I $78,900 I $84,211 I $91,016 I $9$,613 { $106,452 I _
f
Description
A delinquent tax incurs a penalty of 6.0 percent of the amount of the tax
for the first calendar month it is delinquent, plus 1.0 percent for each
additional month or portion of a month the tax remains unpaid prior to
July 1 of the year in which it becomes delinquent. However, a delinquent
M tax on July 1 incurs a total penalty of 12 percent of the amount of the
delinquent tax without regard to the number of months the tax has been
delinquent.
' If a person who exercises the split-payment option as provided by the
Property Tax Code fails to make the second payment before July 1, the
! second payment is delinquent and incurs a penalty of 12 percent of the
amount of the unpaid tax. A delinquent tax accrues at a rate of
w ' 1.0 percent for each month or portion of a month the tax remains unpaid.
a
Assumptions
For the projection period, it is assumed that revenue from penalty and
interest on delinquent taxes will continue to be 1,32 percent of the
previous year's tax levy.
Methods
A rate of 1.32 percent of the previous year's tax levy was established for
1 penalty and interest payments by regression analysis of the historical
relationship between annual tax levies and penalty and interest
collections.
I
b -
- CITY OF DENTON 2I
6L
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUbIMARY
I
REVENUE
CATEGORY OTHER TAXES - SALES
REVENUE 1 1984-85 I 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89
I $4,328,800 1 $4,6799184 I $5,115,268 I $5,592,067.1 $6,106,411 I
Description
A general "sales tax" is levied on all persons and businesses selling
merchandise in the city limits on a retail basis. Monies collected under
authorization of this tax is for the use and benefit of the city. No city
may pledge anticipated revenues from this source to secure the payment of ~i
bonds or other indebtedness. In case of a delinquency of a taxpayer for
the local sales and use tax, the State Comptroller's Office shall notify c-~
said city. The Comptroller acting through the Attorney General may bring al
suit for the collection of delinquent sales tax. The city may join the
state in the suit or the city may initiate en individual suit for r~
collection on approval of the Attorney General's Office.
Assumptions
1. The relationship between the Dallas/Fort Worth Standard Metropolitan
tit
Statistical Area (SMSA) personal income lave], Denton population, and ~sales tax revenue in Denton will continue along the same trend. i
2. Personal Income in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA will rise at the rate
projected by the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating.
s
3. Denton population will increase as predicted by the North Texas
Council of Governments.
t
4. The rate of inflation implicit in projected increases in personal
income is insufficient to negatively affect demand for taxable goods ql
and services. rl
Methods
An econometric model was designed for use in projecting sales tax
revenue. A comparison of the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA personal income
level, City of Denton population, and sales tax collections in the City of
i Denton was executed using regression analysis. This analysis showed the
I variables were highly correlated, so personal income projections by the
State Comptroller were employed in the regression formula to estimate
sales tax revenues for the next five years. _
3
H ~
42 CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
1
l REVENUE SUMMARY
1 REVENUE I
I CATEGORY OTHER TAX - GAS FRANCHISE I
I I
I REVENUE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 I
I 1 $230,000 1 3273p624 1 $299,910 1 $327,116 1 $355,274 I
Description
The holder or grantee of any franchise may be requested, as compensation
for the rights and privileges enjoyed, to pay to the City each year such
reasonable sun, which is not less than 2.0 percent of the gross receipts
of the business pursued by the holder of the franchise earned for services
rendered, or any the City Council may determine by ordinance, agreement,
and/or contract with such utility. This is a charge paid for the use of
City streets and public ways and is in lieu of all other municipal
charges, fees, street rentals, pi,e taxes or rentals, easement or other
like franchise taxes, inspection fees, and/or charges of every kind except
only ad valorem and special assessment taxes for public improvements,
Assumptions
1. The relationship between the Dallas/Fort North SMSA Consumer Price
index and the revenue from the gas franchise tax will continue along
the same trend.
2. The historical relationship between population levels in the City and
gas franchise tax revenues will continue as well.
l
3. The Consumer Price InEex in the Dallas/Fort North SMSA will rise at
the rate projected by the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue
Estimating,
4, Population in the City will increase at the rate predicted by the
North Texas Council of Governments.
Methods
This revenue was projected by employing population estimates for the City
and CPI estimates for the Dallas/Fort Worti SMSA in a formula derived from _
multiple regression analysis.
CITY OF DENTON - 43
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
REVEN !
CATEGORY OTHER TAX - TELEPHONE FRANCHISE
PROJE
REVENUE 1 1984-85 I 1985-86 1 1986-87 ( 1987-88 ( 1988-89
I $142 771 I $158,265 1 $170,440 1 $182,427 1 $194,368 I ^
Description
The holder or grantee of any franchise may be required, as compensation
for the right or privilege enjoyed, to pay to the City such reasonable sum
(currently 2.0 percent) of the gross receipts of the business pursued by
the holder of the franchise earned for service rendered or as the Council
may determine by contract, agreement, and/or by ordinance with such
utility. This is a charge paid for the use of City streets and public
ways and is in lieu of all other municipal charges and taxes of every „
kind, except only ad valorem and special assessments for public
improvements.
Assumptjons
1. The relationship between the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA personal income
level and telephone franchise revenue in Denton will continue along
the same trend.
2. Personal i the Dallas/Fort Worth SA will
Office increase at the
rate projected by the State Comptroll Revenue
Estimating.
Methods
This revenue category was projected with a regression formula, employing
predicted values of personal income in the region as the model determinant. ri
F~
~d
`i
44 CITY OF DENTON
F
I
V
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
I-REVENIJE
CATEGORY OTHER TAX - CABLE TV FRANCHISE
REVENUE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89
1__L759769 ! $79,557 1 $83,535 I_ $87,712 1 $92,098 1
i
Description
1 The franchise granted by the City of Denton grants to the grantee or
I holder of the franchise - the right and privilege to construct, operate,
and maintain in, upon, along, across, above, over, and under the streets,
alleys, public ways and public places now laid on or dedicated and that
all such extentions and additions thereto in the City; and poles, wires,
underground cables, conduits, manholes, and other television conductors
and fixtures necessary for the maintenance and operation of a CATY system
which shall provide for the interception, sale, transmission, and
distribution of television programs and other audio-visual electrical
signals and the right to transmit the same to the residents of the City.
Assumptions
,1F90- For the projection period it is assumed that revenues from this source
will increase moderately.
Methods
Because of the lack of historical data for this revenue item, growth t,as
set as a conservative rate of 5.0 percent per year.
Yi
r I
i
,1MyR
45
CITY OF DENTON
i
j
ti
r
' LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SU*M Y
--I
I REVENUE
1 CATEGORY OTHER TAX - MIXED BEVERAGE TAX I
i i REVENUE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89 1
I S68,B00 I $76,055 J $82,954 I $89,748 I $96,514 J
Description
A tax at the rate of 10 percent is imposed on the gross receipts of a
licensee for the sale, preparation, or service of mixed beverages or from
the sale of ice or nonalcoholic beverages and consumed on the premises of rl
the permittee. This money is received from the State Comptroller I
quarterly.
of
Assumption $J
1. The relationship between the personal income level in the Dallas/Fort it
Worth SMSA and mixed beverage tax revenues in the City will continue ~I
along the same trend.
2. The relationship between population in the City of Denton and mixed 'I
c'3 beverage tax revenues will also hold.
I +I
3. Projections of personal income and population are accurate. r~
i
Methods
1
A multiple regression formula (driven by population estimates for the City
and personal income estimates for the Dallas/Forth Worth SMSA) was used to
project this revenue item. rt
r1
i
'I
i
r+'
1
46 {
CITY OF DENTON .J
i
4
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST _
I REVENUE REVENUE SUMMARY
CATEGORY OTHER TAX - HOTEL/MOTEL TAX
- 1 REVENUE 1 1984-85 I 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89
` I I $238,500 J $248,040 1 $257,962 I $268,280 1 $279,011 I
Description
A tax is levied upon the cost of occupancy of any room or space furnished
by any hotel where such cost of occupancy is at the rate of MOO or more
per day. The law authorizes a room tax of not more than 7.0 percent of
I the consideration paid by the occupant of such room to such hotel.
Revenues from this tax are dedictated, by statute, to the following uses:
1. Promotion and encouragement of the arts
2. The acquisition of convention center facilities and related parking
3. The furnishing of facilities, personnel, materials for registration
of convention delegates
t;y~r 4. Promotional and tourist advertising of the City
S. Improvements to, enlargement, as well as, the repairing, operation,
and maintenance of convention center facilities, civic centers,
museums, auditoriums, and parking areas or facilities in the
immediate area of the convention facilities.
6. Historical preservation and restoration, and
it
0 7. The pledge of tax revenues for the repayment of bonds issued for the
construction of civic centers, museums, libraries, and certain
i recreational facilities.
Comment: The City of Denton allocates 99 percent of these revenues to the
chamber of Commerce and the Denton Cultural Council.
Assumptions -
I It is assumed that revenue from hotel and motel taxation will rise -
e moderately during the forecast period.
M is Methods
Because this revenue is passed-through to other agencies, the projection
is based on a simple inflationary increase, with appropriate expenditure
items likewise expanded.
I
47
CITY OF DENTON
i
1
i
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
REVENUE SUMMARY `
I
I R I
I CATEGORY FEES FROM REVENUE PRODUCING FACILITIES I
I REVENUE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 19,.16-87 f 1987-88 1 1988-89 1
! I f $344,600 I $376,859 I $406,892 I $438,505 I $473,279 1
Description
This revenue derives from fees charged for the use of the following City
facilities:
of
Swimming Pool Recreation Program Facilities}
Cemetery Athletic Program Facilities [j
Community Buildings Ambulances i.i
Airport Williams Square Parking a1
~i
Fire Inspections
ri
s ~
Assumptions
1. The relationship between City population, inflation, and facility-fee +
revenues will hold.
2. City population will increase at the rate projected by the North
Texas Council of Governments.
I
Methods i
A regression formula, driven by population and inflation estimates, was t
used to project this revenue class. it
8
p 11
~I
:
.ra
1
48 CITY OF DENTON - - .r
I
N
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
I
I - REVENUE SUMMARY
I -
I REVENUE
I CATEGORY FINES AND RELATED FEES
I- PROJECTED 1 -7
I REVENUE 1 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 I
I I $692,460 l $704,iA7 I $756,126 I $808,416 ( $861,438 I
Description
This revenue derives from fines imposed by municipal court and fees
charged by related agencies. The list of sources for this revenue is:
i
Municipal Court Fires Police Escort Fees
i
Municipal Court Cost Fees Animal Control Fees
i Auto Pound Fees
f Assumptions
1. The relationship between the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA Consumer Price
Index an-' revenues from City fines and fees will continue along the
same trend.
2. The relationship between City population and fines and fees revenue
will also hold.
3. The CPI projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA made by the State
r Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove accurate.
F
4. The City population protection by North Texas Council of Government
will prove accurate.
l Methods
` This revenue was projected by use of a regression formula that was driven
fa by CPI and population estimates.
ti
CITY OF DENTON 49
r
I
V
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
REVENU
1
1 CATEGORY LICENSES AND PERMITS 1
PROJECTED I- I I
REVENUE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 1 1988-89 i
j I $3569400 1 5373,818 1 $410,694 1 $448,730 1 $488,059 1
I
1 flescription
1 This revenue is composed of license and permit fees of the following types:
Zoning Permits and Petitions Miscellaneous Permits
Tax Certificates Excavation Permits
Wine and Beer Permits Licenses Loading Permits rs
I
Vital Statistics Electric/Plumbing Permits
(Birth and Death Certificates)
Building Permits
Agoti P)ns
r1
1. lae historical relationship between the constuction value of
rawly-permited sturctures in Denton, the rate of inflation, and
license and permit revenue will hold.
2, ionsruction value projections by the Department of Finance will prove
accurate.
r,
!,ethods
P)
1 Revenue items in this class were projected by a regression formula that ai
used predicted construction values and inflation rates as determinants.
.31
0
50 CITY OF OENTON
1
r
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUKo.1RY
REVENUE—
I
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES
REVENUE 1 1984-85 i 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-69 1
I 1 $592,1_00 1 $621,630 I $683,573 1 $747,565 1 $813,833 I
Description
Revenue from this class is composed of the following sources:
i Parking Meter Fees Rent and Concession Fees
Electric Inspections Miscellaneous Revenues
` Plumbing Inspections Sale of Land
f Street Cut License and Sale of General Fixed Assests
Repair Fees
Assumptions
1. The relationship between personal income in the Dallas/Fort Worth
SMSA and revenues frci, this class will hold.
} 2. Personal income projections will prove accurate.
1►
c Methods
I
l Revenue items in this class were projected by a regression formula that
used predicted construction values and inflation rates as determinants.
3
i
t
CITY OF DENTON 51
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
REVENUE
Z
1 CATEGORY INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUES I
I REVENUE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89 1
I I $2499010 1 $261,461 1 $274,534 1 $288,260 1 $302,673 1
Description
This revenue is composed of revenues received from:
County Funding for Civil Defense
County Funding for library
County Funding for Ambulance
sf
Federal Funding for Civil Defense
Small City Funding for Ambulance Service
Refunds of FICA Payments
Assumptions
1. County funding for the library will be discontinued after Fiscal Year
1984-85.
2, No refunds under the Federal Insuranc: Contributions Act will be t
received after Fiscal Year 1984-85.
3. Past trends in other-government appropriations for these activities
will continue, except in the case of county funding for the library.
• k1
Methods
r Continuing revenues in this class were projected at an annual growth rate 'I
of 5.0 percent. This rate of growth was derived from trend-line
projections. -
eI
t1
52 C1'Y OF DENTON
y
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
I REVENUE 1
C
ATEGORY OTHER FUNDS TRANSFERS - ELECTRIC ADMINISTRATION 1
PROJECTED I
REVENUE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 l 1986-87 ! 1987-88 I 1998-89
I I $1,267,866 1 $1,361,688 1$1,451,559 1 $1,540,105 151,627,891 I
Description
Administrative services' charges are allocated to all Enterprise Fund
activities (Electric, dater/Sewer, 9r,d Sanitation) for indi;,ect management
and administrative support given by General t'und departmeits. In this
particular case, the allocation charge is made to the Electrical/Utility
Fund and the corresponding payment is made to the General Furd.
Assumptions
1. The charge to the Electric Fund for the cost of admiristrative
services was sufficiently set to fully recover the cost of these
services in Fiscal Year 1984-85 by the cost analysis performed
by David M. Griffith and Assoicates.
2. Increase in this revenue will therefore follow growth in the
cost of these services after Fiscal Year 1984-85.
Methods
..v
This revenue was projected by applying the yearly average rate of growth
in contributing departmental expenditures to the level of charge set by
the Griffith Study for Fiscal Year 1984-85.
..i
.w
ti
CITY OF DENTON r_ 53
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
I REVENUE
CATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANSFERS - ELECTRIC RETURN CN INVESTMENT 1
I REVENUE 1 1984.85 1 1965-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89 _1 w
F- I
I 1 $1,267,866 1 $1,361,688 1 $1,451,559 1 311540,105 1 $10627,891 1
Description
Return on Investment involves the transfer of funds from the Utility
System Fund to the General Fund on a discretionary basis but shall not be
more than 6.0 percent of the net investment. The intent of the
discretionary transfer is to reimburse the citizenry by contributing r
revenues to the General Fund, thereby easir"9 the ad valorem tax burden. +
t+
s
Assumptions
1. Return on Investment for any current year will be calculated by ~i
applying the appropriate rate of return to the value of the Electric
Fund's net plant in service during the previous year.
2, The value of net plant is service will increase each year by
{t;
70 percent of the value of capital improvements scheduled for
implementation in that year.
' Methods "
This revenue was projected by th"r means listed above. After making
adjustments for contribution received from other governments and for r4
depreciation, the net rate of return employed was 5.5 percent. M
1~
r~
t
t
54
CITY OF OENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
I CATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANSFERS - WATER/WASTEWATER ADMINISTRATION _
I
REVENUE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89
1 58059581 1 $865,194 I $922,297 1 5978,551 1 51,034,335 I
Descrivtion
plan t by t a the deUtility termined prate (Water
coste allocation allocated
Administrativeaccount services' ia charges
and Sewer)
indirect management and administrative support given by General Fund
departments.
Assumpt{ons
1. The charge to the Water/Wastewater Fund for the cost of
administrative services was sufficiently set to fully recover the
cost of these services in Fiscal Year 1984-65 by the cost analysis
performed by David M. Griffith and Associates,
2, Growth in this revenue will therefore follow growth in the cost of
these services after Fiscal Year 1984-85.
Metho0s
This revenue was projected by applying the yearly average rate of growth
in contributing departmental expenditures to the level of charge set by
the Griffith Study for Fiscal Year 1984-85,
r1
S
~ .J
I
y
s ~ -
- 55
CITY OF D£NTON -
Il
1
I
i
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
REVENUE SUMMARY
CATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANSFERS - WATER/WASTEWATER RETURN ON INVESTMENT j
PROJEC --T-- REVENUE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 f 1987-88 1988-81
1 $790.087 I $795,674 1 #001.L923 1 5823,338 151,006,304 j
Description
Return on Investment involves the transfer of funds from the Utility
System Fund to the General Fund on a discretionary basis but shall not be
more than 6.0 percent of the net investment. The intent of the
discretionary transfer is to reimburse the citizenry by contributing
revenues to the General Fund, thereby easing the ad valorem tax burden. "
Assumptions
a
1. Return on Investment for any current year will be calculated by
applying the appropriate rate of return to the value of the ~AI
Water/Wastewater Fund's net plant in service during the previous year.
2. The value of net plant in service will increase each ~
year by 70
yr percent of the value of capital improvements scheduled for
implementation in that year.
Methods
This revenue was projected by the means listed above. After making kcontr ons. ;
depreciation,f the net ri to of returnreceiemplved
w st2e1 governments and for
i '
a
! !I
rl
f ca
I -
i
}
56
CITY OF OENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
- REVENUE SUMMARY
1 YLn-'vE-
CATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANSFER - SANITATION ADMINISTRATION j
I REVENUE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89
I! 1 $1189510 f 5127,280 1 $135,680 1 $143,951 I $152,162 I
Description
Administrative charges for General Fund personnel management and
supervision are allocated to Sanitation Fund and subsequent division
activities. The transfer of funds from the Sanitation Fund to the General
Fund is payment for indirect management support and administrative support.
Assumptions
For the projection period, it is assumed that the Sanitation Fund will
improve its financial position such that it will be able to fully
reimburse the General Fund for the cost of administration services that it
receives.
3 Methods
This revenue was projected by applying the yearly average rate of growth
in contributing departmental expenditures to the level of charge set by
the Griffith Study for Fiscal Year 1984.85.
7 4~ •
J
I
i
j
R
4
CITY OF DENTON - 57
I
I
r - _ - ,r
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
REVENUE
M
C
ATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANSFER - BOND FUND I
PROJECTED _T_ I
1 REVENUE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1988-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-69 I
1 I 5161,463 I $100,000 I $1009000 I $100,000 I $100,000 I
Description
These revenues are payments to the General Fund from the Bond Fund for
General Fund labor expenditures on bond-financed projects,
Assumptions
it is assumed that labor capitalization will continue at a constant rate.
Methods
The Assistant City Manager for Public Works estimated future revenues to
be approximately $100,000 per year for this item, after fiscal year
1984-85.
.
~I
NI
i
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f!
t1
-
{t
l
l
I 58
CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY
- I I
CATEGORY OTHER FUND TRANS'?R - REVENUE SHARING
REVENUE 119d4-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89
1 I $529 121 I $570,000 I $570,000 1 $570,000 I $570,000 f
Description
These revenues derive from a reallocation of federal taxes to state and
local governments. Present auth^rizations and appropriations expire
September 30, 1986.
i~
Assumptions
j For the projection period, it is assumed that Federal Revenue Sharing will
i continue.
Methods
t I This revenue source was projected with no increases after fiscal year
1985-86 because of the uncertainty of future funding level.
t `,r
17
ra 11
N
..1
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59
CSTY OF DENTON
Ir
f
II
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
REVENUE SUMMARY -a
4 REVENUE
I CATEGORY INTEREST EARNED-
REVENUE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 i w
$70 000 I $100,000 1 $110,000 I $121,000 1 $133,000 I
Description
In accordance with state scat,=test bids are received by City Council for
the privilege of maintaining City s general revenues in a particular bank
acco
the Fi th City's Depositoryepp(des ig ated=bygouncil actirst )State
Bankuof.Dentonisc e1983
City monies maintained in time d_e_a6 npos~its (certificates of deposit) are ,N
negotiated by the City witfi- a`ny k located within the city limits -
&I owing First State Bank first and last refusal on rate. It is the
intent of the City to purchase certificates of deposit rather than F~
purchase government securities when, for a desired maturity date, the C.
D. interest rate is equivalent or higher than the market yield for the .I
proposed security.
City monies maintained in a savings account are at the maximum allowed
(5.25 percent,) by law - annually.
The City has the right to renegotiate repurchase agreements for
investments less than 30 days. First State Bank will be given first and
last refusal on rate Restrictions apply to interest revenue received
from the investmen Fof indebtness funds. When deposits in the General
Fund exceed the required amounts, the City Manager and the Director of
Finance may invest such temporary excess funds in legally-authorized,
short-term investment instruments. "
i Assumptions s~
i
For the forecast period it is expected that this revenue will increase
diractly with the volume of cash flow. a~
Methods
it
The Finance Director estimates this revenue will increase at a rate of 10
percent a year.
60 CITY QF OENTON
1
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST _
1 ,
i
i
EXPENDITURE FORECAST
q
k
k r~
CITY OF DENTON
c
i
1
I
Il
f
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
I EXPENDITUAT
1
CATEGORY GENERAL GOVERMENT
EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-81 I 1987-88 1988-89
I S1,219,584 1 $1,338,146 1 $1,455,952 I $1,563,309 I $1!650,345 1
Description
This category consists of:
General Government Administration
Building Operations
Operations Analysis and Energy Management
Word Processing Center
Assumptions
i -M
1. New committed costs will be incurred by the Operations Analysis/
' Energy Management Division to expand the ,scope of the City's
Productivity Program. Also, new committed costs will be incurred by
General Government Administration for economic development purposes.
The timing and incremental current cost of these changes will be:
a. Fiscal Year 1985-86 - $24,500
b. Fiscal Year 1986-87 - 23,937
;~4r c. Fiscal Year 1987-88 - 14,188
d. Fiscal Year 1988-89 - (1,500)
2. Except as listed above; service levels will be held constant.
I} 3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
s FI in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Ft. Worth SMSA, as
r recorded in the Consumer Price Index. New committed costs, however,
will increase above their current cost by the compounded rate of CP1
k ►e increase experienced before their incurrence.
i~ 4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Ft. Worth SMSA by the
t' Srate Comptroller's Office of Revenue estimating will prove accurate. -
I Methods
ka To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied to one year's expenditure to obtain the next a
M year's expenditure. Additionally, new committed cost were added to the
M estimate of appropriate years, after first increasing the current value of
the new cost by the compounded rate CP1 increase experienced before their
incurrence. An inverse process was used to establish future value for
negative incremental costs.
CITY OF DENTON 61
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
F~
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY LEGAL j {
l EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 i sr
I I $313,854 I $337,079 i $359,326 I $381,245 k $402,976 I ,
M
Description
This category consists of;
Legal Administration
Municipal Court FI
Assumptions 1
1. Service levels will be held constant,
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort North SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index,
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
,
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI ~
projections were applied annually.
rl
,i
sI'
i
i
62 CITY OF DENTON
I
l
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE -
CATEGuRY PERSONNEL
I
-PROJECTED I
EXPENDITURE I 1984.85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89
I_ I $262,311 I $281,722 I $300,316 I $318,635 I $336,797
Description
This category solely consists of the Personnel Department.
1
Assumptions
r
1. Service levels will be held constant.
;r
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
ti~r* the State Comptrollers Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
i
S
MCI -
r
- CITY OF OENTON 63
1
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
I~XPFR6ITOR1: I
CATEGORY PLANNING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT i
EXPENDITURE f 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 f 1987-88 ! 1988-89 '
I I S288,28b I $309,619 I $3309054 I $350,187 1 $370,148
Description
This category consists solely of the Department of Planning and Community ,i
Development,
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant. >f~
r
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
r
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
In the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptrollers Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate. s+
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI P
protections were applied annually.
t
k~
r
,l
rA
at
64
CITY OF DENT014 -
~ V
f
V
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST i
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY I
1 EXPENDITURE
1
CATEGORY FINANCE
EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85-1 1985-86 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 1 1988-89
f 1 $2,067,674 1 $2,330,901 1 $21430L649 1 $2,607,628 1 $2,101,095 1
Description
This category consists of both the Finance Department proper and Data
Processing.
Assumptions
1. New committed costs will be incurred by the department to increase
services to levels mandated by current policies. The timing and
incremental current cost of these services will be:
a. Fiscal Year 1984-85 - $33,000
b. Fiscal Year 1985-66 - 95076
c. Fiscal Year 1986-87 - (43,649)
d. Fiscal Year 1987-88 - 21,705
e. Fiscal Year 1988-89 - (39,932)
2. For the Data Processing Department, no new committed costs will
incurred and service levels will be held constant.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
14 recorded in the Consumer Price Index, New committed costs, however,
will increase above their current cost by the compounded rate of CPI
Increase experienced before their incurrence.
4, Consumer Pric.i Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
r~ projections were applied to one year's expenditure to obtain the next
►r years expenditure. Additionally, new committed costs were added to the
estimate of appropriate years, after first increasing the current value of
the new cost by the compounded rate of CPI increase experienced before
Is their incurrence. An inverse process was used to establish future value -
q for negative incremental costs.
CITY OF DENTON 65
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
! I EXPENDITURE 94
CATEGORY PUBLIC WORKS I
I I
I EXPENCITURE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-68 I 1988-89 I
I I
I I $2,990,361 1.$3,2119648 I $3,423,616 J $3,632,457 I $3,839,507 I
Description
This category consists of:
Public Works (proper) •r
Emergency Management
Airport
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
all
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3, Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth $,MSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
{ 4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
r~
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CP1 e;
i projections were applied annually. 'i
s'r
w -
Fi
d~
1
66 CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FOREC4ST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
I~1? D U
ATEGORY POLICE I
1 C
PROJECTEU
+ EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1486-87
I 1987-88 I 1988-89 1
53,038,230 153,348,928 1 E3,671,443 1 53,9709382 154,287,620 -
Desc_ p~~
This category consists solely of the Police Department.
Assumotlons
1. New committed costs will be incurred by the Police Department as the
Department complies with its mandate to absorb the cost of a
phase-out of State Grant funding for Prevention, Narcotics and
Juvenile operations. Also, maintaining current service levels in a
andwIncre entalicurrent c st of taddi heseiItems will beunits. The timing
- a. Fiscal Year 1984-85 - $101,186
b. Fiscal Year 1985-86 - 74,305
c. Fiscal Year 1986-87 - 820382
d. Fiscal Year 1987-68 - 57,367
e. Fiscal Year 1988-89 - 650815
2. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous ircreases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Consumer Price Index. New committed costs, however,
will increase above their current cost by the compounded rate of CPI
Increase experienced before their incurrence,
3. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate,
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multippliers derived from CAI
projections were applied to one year's exppenditure to obtain the next
year s expenditure. Additionally, new committed costs were added to the
9 ci estimate of appropriate years, after first increasing the current value of
the new cost y the compounded rate of CPI increase experienced before
;ill their incurrence,
CITY OF DENTON 67
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURL
CAT~EGORY FIRE j
EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89
I 1 $3,135,304 ! $3,799,025 1 $4,350,561 1 541191,183 1 $5,394,816 1
Description
This category consists solely of the Fire Department, Ea
Assumptions
1. New committed costs will be incurred by the Fire Department as the
Department complies with its mandate to operate a new fire substation
and to maintain current service levels in a growing city. The timing
and incremental current cost of these new expenidtures will be:
0
a. Fiscal Year 1984-85 - $ 61,000
b. Fiscal Year 1985-86 - 373,572 ►i
c, Fiscal Year 1986-87 - 244,177
+ d. Fiscal Year 1987-88 - 134,072
_ N..t.. e. Fiscal Year 1988-89 - 239,251
i 2. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Consumer Price Index. New committed costs, however,
will increase above their current cost by the compounded rate of CPI
Increase experienced before their incurrence. r{
e
3, Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove f~
accurate.
t
Methods t1
1
4 To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI -
projections were applied to one year's expenditure to obtain the next
year's expenditure. Additionally, new committed costs were added to the
estimate of appropriate years, after first increasing the current value of
the new cost by the compounded rate of CPI increase experienced before
their incurrence. An inverse process was used to establish future value ,
for negative incremental costs.
i
s.
68 -
CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FOP:CAST
i - EXPENDITURE S124ARY
I -
EXPENDITURE
1 I
1 CATEGORY PARKS AND RECREATION 1
I I
J EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 1 1988-89 I
k 1 151,47S,I60 1 51,629,680 1 $19722,656 1 52,035,084 1 E2,151,084 I
f Description
This category consists solely of the Parks and Recreation Department.
Assumptions
1. New committed costs will be incurred by the department as the Parks
and Recreation Master Plan is implimented. The timing and
incremental current cost of there items will be:
a. Fiscal Year 1985-86 - $39,250
b. Fiscal Year 1986-87 - 28,750
c, Fiscal Year 1987-88 - 118,050
2. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Consumer Price Index. New committed costs., however,
will increase above their current cost by the compounded rate of CPI
increase experienced before their incurrence.
3. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
1
0
Methods
i
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied to one years expenditure to obtain the next
years expenditure. Additionally, new committed costs were added to the
estimate of appropriate years, after first increasing the current value of
the new cost by the compounded rate of CPI increase experienced before
f ; a their incurrence.
x
3
CITY OF DEN70, 69
I
If ~
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
a
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
s
i p
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY LIBRARY
EXPENDITURE 1984-85 I 1985-66 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 I
I $6129901 I $658,256 I $701,701 I $744,504 $786,941 I N
I
Description
This category consists solely of the Library. "
r~
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
2. No view committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases f
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as KF
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index,
t•~'i + 4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
a tirtS" ' the Stute Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
I
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CP1
projections were applied annually, rl
~Jf
ff ~
AMY
1
t
M
v V
70
CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY OTHER AGENCIES - HEALTH
` EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 1 1965-86 1 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89 !
1 I $90,000 4 $96,660 1 $103,040 1 $109,325 1 $115,556 I
Description
This category consists of contributions to the joint City-County Health
Unit.
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
{ r
4. Consumer Price 'Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
N To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
i
I
t
CITY OF OENTON 71
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
f I "1
CATEGORY OTHER AGENCIES - COMMUNITY AGENCIES
EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-66 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 ! 1988-89
I i $103,800 i $111,481 1 $118,839 I $126,088 1 $133,275 I
Description
This category consists contributions to:
Fred Moore Daffy Care Denton City-County Day Care
Friends of the Family Nandi-Hop
~ .q
SPAN United Way ,l
RSVP Domino Hall
Human Resources
w
Assumptions
y ,;S 1. Service levels will be held constant.
2, No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
el
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by rd j
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate. FI
►i
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
i
• 1 ~
3
i
72 CITY OF DENTON
r - -t
f
LONG RAN }'INANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
I~EXPEN 1 'RE
CATEGORY OTHER AGENCIES - VISITOR/CONVENTION BUREAU
EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 1 1988-89 f
I I $118,057 I $122,780 I $127,691 1 $1329799 I $138,111 I
Description
This category consists of contributions to the Visitor/Convention Bureau.
Assumptions
1. Expenditures will equal 49,5 percent of Hotel/Motel Tax revenue.
2. Hotel/Motel Tax revenue will increase according to projection.
' Methods
{ This projection was obtained by applying 49.5 percent to Hotel/Motel Tax
revenue projections.
r q~, • ~ t
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I 1
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73
CITY OF DENTON
I ,
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
i
w
EXPENDITURE SUWARY
EXPENDITURE
I CATEGORY OTHER AGENCIES - CULTURAL CONFEDERATION I I
EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 1 1986-87 I 1987-88 1 1988-89 I
I I $118,G57 1 $122,780 1 $127,691 1 $132,799 1 $138,111 I
f '
Description
I This category consists of contributions to the Cultural Confederation.
Assumption%
1. Expenditures will equal 49.5 percent of Hotel/Motel Tax revenue. t~
2. Hotel/Motel Tax revenue will increase according to projection. s
I 1 ~
i
Methods °
This projection was obtained by applying 49.5 percent to Hotel/Motel Tax
revenue projections,
;i
11 s , t
0
14 CITY OF DENTON
I
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITI,RE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY OTHER AGENCIES - APPRAISAL DISTRICT
I_ EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 i 7985-66 I 1986-07 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 j
I I $152,200 I $163,463 f 1174,251 ( $184,881 I $195,419 I
Description
This category consists of a fee paid to the County-Wide Tax Appraisal
District.
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held cons!.ant.
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3, Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Wcrth SMSA, as
' recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
a,y,.,, 4. Consumer Price Index
projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
}~t1 accurate.
,~d." J I nI
Methods
e~
i To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
i
I
i
} i!
CITY OF DENTON
75
1
f
LONG RANGE FINANCfAL FORECAST _
1
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - FINANCIAL AUDIT I !
EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89 1 p
I I $40,000 1 $42,960 1 $45,795 1 $48,589 I $51,358 1 ^
Description
This category consists of fees paid for the yearly financial audit and
related studies.
V4
I
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant. ,j
2. No new committed costs will be incurred. c
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases 11
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
To forecast this expenditure, multipliers derived from CPI projections
were applied annually.
d
a
R
R 1"
I •
76
- CITY OF DENTON , ,
_ LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - BAD DEBT
EXPENDITURE I 1584-85 ! 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89
l $800000 I $85,920 I $91,591 I $97,178 I $102,717 I
Description
This category consists of bad debt and other miscellaneous expense.
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
j 2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort North SMSA, as
recorGed in the Regional Consumer Price Index.
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort North SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Offir. Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
(iy
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
*4
° I
k
e
M
A -
CITY OF DENTON 77
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST -
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY ^
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
1 EXPENDITURE -1 1984-85 1 1985-66 { 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89 1
I I $30,000 1 W 2riO I $34,347 I $36,442 $384519 1
Description -
This expense is the amount paid by the City for Unemployment Insurance.
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
{ in the cost of 96ods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.,
F1
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
toy'. accurate.
?c4,} Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied annually.
r+
F{
r{
i
i
i 3
78 CITY OF DENTON
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST 1
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
I
I CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - LIABILITY INSURANCE
~
i EXP_ENDITURE I 1984-85 ! 1985-86 I 1936-87 I 1987-88 l 198849r
1 $160,000 I S1711840 4 S1b3,181 I $194,356 I $205,434 I
Description
This expense is the amount paid by the City for Liability Insurance.
~ Assum lions
i
1. Service levels will be held constant.
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases
in the cost of goods and services in the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as
recorded in the Regional Consumer Price Index.,
t g 4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
accurate.
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
i projections were applied annually.
fl -
u
5
_ 79
CITY OF DENTON
I
1
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
1
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - DISABILITY INSURANCE
{ EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1968-89
I $70 000 I $75,180 1 580,142 1 $85,031 I $89,877 I M
Description
This expense is the amount paid by the City for Disability Insurance.
Assumptions
1. Service levels will be held constant.
ri
2. No new committed costs will be incurred.
3. Expenditure increases will be equivalent to contemporaneous increases1
in the ocost of goods
the Regional and Consumer services Priin the ce Index}las/Fort Worth SMSA, as
.n
recorded i
4. Consumer Price
Comptrollers oj Office s ofr Rethe venuellEstimating rwillM prove
the State
I" V1 accurate.
Methods
To forecast this expenditure category, multipliers derived from CPI
projections were applied arinually,
• YA
!
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i
i
i
80 - CITY OF DENTON
h
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
I CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - TRANSFERS OUT j
I I
1 EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 1 1988-89
I 1 $502,615* 1 3150,000 1 $150,000 1 $150,000 I $150,a)D 1
Description
This expense item consists of contributions to the General Project Fund
for planned capital projects.
Assumptions
'i This expense item will remain at a constant level after Fiscal Year
1985-86,
Methods
The Assistant Director of Finance estimated this expenditure at $150,000
per year after Fiscal Year 1985-86.
1
if
$3250615 of the 1984.85 transfer will be funded from prior year
retainage, making this year's net transfer from operating funds
equivalent to $177,000.
I "J
r
z
CITY OF OENTON 81
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - CONTINGENCY RESERVE
l EXPENDITURE 1 1984-85 1 1985-86 I 1986-87 1 1987-88 I 1988-89
1 1 $50,000 1 $566000 I $50,000 1 $50,000 I $50,000 1 -
Description
This expense item consists of revenues set aside to provide for unexpected
expenditures.
Assumptions
I 1. Proposed expenditure levels will be appropriated.
2, The above amount will be sufficient to cover unplanned-for expenses
during the projection period.
Methods
t i.
The proposed funding level for the item in Fiscal Year 1984-85 was carried
forward throughout the forecast.
N
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1 it
►3
F 1'4
s
82 CITY OF OENTON
• ~ M
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL. FORECAST
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - SALARY ADJUSTMENTS
EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 { 1988-89
I I $299_,_620_ I $3210192 I $343,030 I $363,955 I $384,700 I
Description
This expense consists of the cost of proposed increases in employee wages
and benefits.
Assumptions
1. The proposed increase will be adopted.
2. Service levels will be held constant.
3. The current incremental addition to wages and benefits will be
increased throughout the projection period at a rate equivalent to
contemporaneous increases in the cost of goods and services in the
Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA, as recorded in the Regional Consumer Price
Index.
4. Consumer Price Index projections for the Dallas/Fort Worth SMSA by
the State Comptroller's Office of Revenue Estimating will prove
3 accurate.
_y
{ Methods
To forecast this item, multipliers derived from CPI projections were
applied annually.
rE
I
P ( '
k f
CITY OF DENTON - 83
i
LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST
I
EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
EXPENDITURE
CATEGORY MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES - REVENUE STUDIES
1 EXPENDITURE I 1984-85 I 1985-86 I 1986-87 I 1987-88 I 1988-89 i .r
f I I $8,000 I S -0- I $ -0- # $ -0- # S -0- I r
r ~
j Description
This expense is the fee paid David M. Griffith and Associates for work to
be done on a study of City fees.
Assumptions
a~
1. The study will be ,.oncluded in Fiscal Year 1984.84. ~
2. The current estimate will prove accurate. .
I
r
Methods r~
,a This estimate for the 1984-85 study was obtained by the Assistant Director
of Finance from the Dallas office of the above firm.
e~
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4
CITY OF OENTON 84 •J
i
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F
ENE)
S tt~ ~
l?
0 F
~yyr)'i
PY
FILE
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