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August 7&8, 2009 Agenda
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ìòjðØÉËÎðÎÏÔÉÎËiûËÎÎÒÔÏÖÊôÏÊÉÔÉÈÉÔÎÏðØÉËÎÍÎÑÔÉÜÏíÎÑÔÚÄíËÎÖËÜÐ ëòjüÐØËÔÚÜ üíËÎÊÍØÚÉÈÊiüÐØËÔÚÜ êòjüöÑÎÛÜÑèËÛÜÏüÖØÏÙÜi Ë®¾¿² Ô¿²¼ ײ¬·¬«¬» éòjôÉiÊÜ÷ÑÜÉæÎËÑÙü×ÉØËüÑÑiïØÆäÎËÒéÔÐØÊÜËÉÔÚÑØ Ý·¬§ ±º Ü»²¬±² п¹» é ݱ«²½·´ д¿²²·²¹ Í»·±² Þ¿½µ¹®±«²¼ ײº±®³¿¬·±² п½µ»¬ èòjéÕØæÎËÑÙÔÊ÷ÑÜÉþiúÜÍÔÉÎÑëØÜÙØËÊÈÐÐÜËÄÎ×léÕØæÎËÑÙôÊ÷ÑÜÉü Ý®·¬·½¿´ ±º ̸±³¿ Ôò Ú®·»¼³ÜÏiÊïØÆäÎËÒéÔÐØÊûØÊÉÊØÑÑØËk çòjöËÎÆÔÏÖúÎÎÑØËiêÄÏÎÍÊÔÊèËÛܲ Ô¿²¼ ײ¬·¬«¬» ¿²¼ ±¬¸»® ïðòjäÎÈúÜÏiÉíËØÙÔÚÉæÕÎæÔÑÑúÕÜÏÖØéÕØæÎËÑÙi÷ÎËÛØÊÚÎÐ Ý·¬§ ±º Ü»²¬±² п¹» è The Urban Land InstitutePage 1of 2 My ULI | | | FindEventsBuyBooks Search ULI.org Advanced Search Founding S HomeResearch and PublicationsULI InitiativesThe City in 2050 > > > > About the 2050 Initiative The Urban Lan d support of TheC the Galbreath F a About the City in 2050 Initiative Learn about ULI Galbreath and D The recent instability of global capital markets combined with newly emerging Listen to reflecti o The ULI Network frameworks of environmental policy Galbreath Famil creates several imperatives for ULI. Real ULI Worldwide estate markets will be restructured and Research & Publications regulatory frameworks redefined. ULI’s mission calls us to forge ahead and Watch theVid Policy and Practice Priority Areas proactively explore new land use paradigms and scenarios. This is a crucial ULI Initiatives time to help land use professionals innovate and explore new business London-NY Dialogue More on th e strategies. The City in 2050 EmergingFram e With The City in 2050: Creating Blueprints for Change, we take the opportunity to create a About the City in 2050 Initiative dialogue that explores potential paths of innovation. The initiative is being presented as an exchange of ideas to prepare for and act upon the changes facing metropolitan areas over Emerging Frameworks CreatingBluepr i the next decades as the world becomes more urbanized. Creating Blueprints Elevated concerns over capital markets, rising energy costs, climate change, exploding The City in 2050 News populations, and equitable development are changing how communities define ‘the Energy Exchange Initiative responsible use of land.’ As these issues increasingly affect our daily lives, discussions regarding sustainable development continue to both broaden and escalate. ULI Urban Investment Network ULI Magazines In only 42 years, when we mark the midpoint of the 21st century, cities around the world will have experienced unprecedented growth—serving larger and more diverse populations ULI Bookstore than ever in world history. The quest to balance market pressures, public policy goals, and land use decisions in a fast-paced global marketplace will be more challenging than ever. Emerging Trends Real Estate Business Barometer Capital Markets Update Reports and Case Studies Experts ULI J. Ronald Terwilliger Center for Workforce Housing Center for Balanced Development in the West Customized Research Awards & Competitions Professional Development & Education Community Building News & Media Login http://www.uli.org/ResearchAndPublications/Inititatives/City2050/About.aspx7/16/2009 The Urban Land InstitutePage 1of 3 My ULI | | | FindEventsBuyBooks Search ULI.org Advanced Search Signs of Str HomeResearch and PublicationsULI InitiativesThe City in 2050 > > > > Emerging Frameworks ClimateChang e Infrastructure Emerging Frameworks Learn about ULI Wate r Major forces will influence urban growth over the next 40 years, including energy prices, climate change, technology, and the globalization of capital. As the world's population also grows from 6 The ULI Network Energy billion to 9 billion people, with the majority living in urbanized communities, more choices will face us at all levels. From policy makers, to young people entering careers, to investors choosing portfolios, Demographics societies will not adopt one urban model, but many. The following is a summary of the framework Research & Publications established in ULI's publication released at the The City in 2050: Creating Blueprints for Change Capital Markets 2008 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo in Miami Beach, Florida. Policy and Practice Priority Areas ULI Initiatives Signs of Stress; Drivers of Change Themes for London-NY Dialogue Climate Change Metro Metrics The City in 2050 Climbing Temperatures — Cities that The City Wild About the City in 2050 Initiative currently experience heat waves are expected to be challenged by an Emerging Frameworks Water,Power, L increased number, intensity, and duration of heat waves during the Creating Blueprints Getting Around course of the century. The City in 2050 News WholeBuilding s Severe Weather — Changing weather Energy Exchange Initiative patterns place higher burdens on Full-Spectrum H infrastructure, such as power lines, ULI Urban Investment Network sewer systems, levees, and coastal Plan it. Build It. ULI Magazines evacuation routes. Click,Learn, G o ULI Bookstore Rising Seas — Many millions more people are projected to experience floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected will be the largest in the densely populated, Emerging Trends low-lying mega-deltas of Asia and Africa. More on the Real Estate Business Barometer Capital Markets Update Aboutthe 2050 Infrastructure Reports and Case Studies CreatingBluepr i Deferred Maintenance — Experts Underinvestment and deferred maintenance can result in tragic ULI J. Ronald Terwilliger Center for Workforce consequences. Housing Communications Networks — Center for Balanced Development in the West Interconnected global systems create Customized Research new opportunities, but introduce operational risks. Awards & Competitions Unsustainable Patterns — Both capital and operational costs are higher for infrastructure in low-density communities. Professional Development & Education Water Community Building Vulnerable Sources — Many semi- arid and arid areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, western United News & Media States, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil are projected to suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change. Login Diminishing Reserves — The availability of clean sources of water complicates the economic growth of communities and regions worldwide. Pollution Runoff — Persistent waterborne pollution knows no political boundaries. Metro http://www.uli.org/ResearchAndPublications/Inititatives/City2050/Emerging.aspx7/16/2009 The Urban Land InstitutePage 2of 3 Back the the top Energy Reducing Emissions — The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions creates dynamic market conditions in the energy sector. Back the the top Real Estate and the Financial Peaking Oil — Rising gas prices have The City reduced vehicle-miles traveled in the Crisis () is available from #C80 U.S. for the first time in 30 years. ULI’s online bookstore at www.uli.org/bookstore or by Security Risks — Seventy percent of oil consumed in the United States is imported from other countries. calling 800-321-5011. Back the the top Demographics Growing Populations — World population is projected to rise to 9 Back the the top billion by 2050, with seven of every ten people living in urban areas. Water, Power Regional Migrations — Economic competitiveness will “push” and “pull” migration between regions. Shifting Demographics — Demographic shifts in age, ethnicity, and household composition will create new markets and drive tensions between “haves” and “have-nots.” Back the the top Capital Markets Back the the top Concentration of Capital — Institutional investors and niche players Getting grow in importance and define larger segments of the market. Competition for Capital — Cities and regions vie for investment in a global marketplace. Assessing Value and Risk — The speed of the marketplace and new economic inputs make the assessment and pricing of risk more difficult. Back the the top Back the the top Whole Back the the top Full-Spectrum http://www.uli.org/ResearchAndPublications/Inititatives/City2050/Emerging.aspx7/16/2009 The Urban Land InstitutePage 1of 2 My ULI | | | FindEventsBuyBooks Search ULI.org Advanced Search More on the HomeResearch and PublicationsULI InitiativesThe City in 2050 > > > > Creating Blueprints Aboutthe 2050 EmergingFram e Creating Blueprints Learn about ULI The Urban Land Institute is currently engaged in a variety of program activities The ULI Network which seek to define “best futures” land use outcomes for the City in 2050. From Reality Check the program to new Research & Publications publications; from focused forums to student competitions, we seek to frame Policy and Practice Priority Areas how land use professionals define the “best 2050 future” for their community. ULI Initiatives London-NY Dialogue If you have thoughts about this endeavor or seek to provide feedback to the The City in 2050 project team, please email us at 2050@uli.org . About the City in 2050 Initiative Emerging Frameworks Creating Blueprints The City in 2050 News Energy Exchange Initiative ULI Urban Investment Network ULI Magazines ULI Bookstore Emerging Trends Real Estate Business Barometer Capital Markets Update Reports and Case Studies Experts ULI J. Ronald Terwilliger Center for Workforce Housing Center for Balanced Development in the West Customized Research Awards & Competitions Professional Development & Education Community Building News & Media Login http://www.uli.org/ResearchAndPublications/Inititatives/City2050/Creating.aspx7/16/2009 ÷Ä×ÙÇÈÓÆ×éÇÏÏÛÊà ø×ÉÌÓÈ×ÇÎÌÊ×Ùר×ÎÈר öÓÕÇÊ× óÎÈÔ×ÅÍÊÉÈÔÍÇÉÓÎÕÙÍÎÉÈÊÇÙÈÓÍÎÙÃÙÐ×ÉÓÎÙ×ÈÔ× É Ø×ÌÊ×ÉÉרØ×ÏÛÎØÓÉÏÛÑÓÎÕÓÈØÓÖÖÓÙÇÐÈÖÍÊÈÔ×ÏÛÊÑ×ÈÈÍÅÍÊÑ Öר×ÊÛÐ×ÖÖÍÊÈÉÈÍÒÇÏÌÉÈÛÊÈ ÍÖÖ×ÄÙ×ÉÉÆÛÙÛÎÈÇÎÓÈÉê×ÉÈÍÊÓÎÕØ×ÏÛÎØÈÍÏÍÊ×ÎÍÊÏÛÐÐׯ×ÐÉ ÅÓÐÐÈÛÑ×ÈÓÏ×ÉÓÎÙ×ÉÍÏÛÎÃÍÅÎ×ÊÉÛÊ×ÓÎÖÓÎÛÎÙÓÛÐØÓÉÈÊ×ÉÉÍÊ ÈÔ××ÙÍÎÍÏÃÛÎØÔ×ÐÌ ÈÊÛÌÌרÓÎÔÍÏ×ÉÅÍÊÈÔÐ×ÉÉÈÔÛÎÈÔ×ÓÊÏÍÊÈÕÛÕ×ÉèÔ×Ê×Ù×ÉÉÓÍÎ ÔÍÏ×ÍÅÎ×ÊÉÑ××ÌÇÌÅÓÈÔ ÔÛÉÛÐÉÍØÛÏÌ×ÎרÚÍÈÔÓÏÏÓÕÊÛÈÓÍÎÛÎØÎ×ÅÔÍÇÉ×ÔÍÐØÖÍÊÏÛ ÈÓÍÎúÇÈÍÎÙ×Î×ÅÔÍÏ×ÉÛÐ×ÉÊ×ÚÍÇÎØÛÎØÈÔ××ÙÍÎÍÏÃÚ×ÕÓÎÉ ÈÔ×ÓÊÏÍÊÈÕÛÕ×ÌÛÃÏ×ÎÈÉ ÈÍÌÓÙÑÇÌÈÔ×ÛÕÓÎÕÍÖÈÔ××ÙÔÍÚÍÍÏ×ÊÉ¥ÈÔ×ÐÛÊÕ×ÉÈÕ×Î×ÊÛÈÓÍÎ ÈÍÊ×ÛÙÔÛØÇÐÈÔÍÍØÓÎÈÔ×ÎÛÈÓÍΪÉÔÓÉÈÍÊÃ¥ÉÔÍÇÐØÊ×ÓÎÆÓÕÍÊÛÈ×ÈÔ× ÔÍÏ×ÌÊÓÙ×ÉÙÍÎÈÓÎÇרÈÍÖÛÐÐ ÔÍÇÉÓÎÕÏÛÊÑ×È ÛÎØÖÍÊ×ÙÐÍÉÇÊ×ÉÙÍÎÈÓÎÇר ÈÍÏÍÇÎÈÓÎÏÍÉÈÛÊ×ÛÉÈÔÊÍÇÕÔ öÊÍÏúÍÍÏÈÍúÇÉÈ 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îÍÈ×ÉòùôéÔÓÕÔÌÊÍÒ×ÙÈÓÍÎÛÉÉÇÏ×ÉÛÎÎÇÛÐÓÏÏÓÕÊÛÈÓÍÎÊÓÉÓÎÕÖÊÍÏÏÓÐÐÓÍÎÓÎ ÈÍÏÓÐÐÓÍÎÓÎ ÈÔ×ù×ÎÉÇÉúÇÊ×ÛÇªÉ É×ÉÈÓÏÛÈ×É éÍÇÊÙ×Éçéù×ÎÉÇÉúÇÊ×ÛÇôÍÇÉÓÎÕæÛÙÛÎÙÃéÇÊÆ×ÃèÛÚÐ×û òÍÓÎÈù×ÎÈ×ÊÖÍÊôÍÇÉÓÎÕéÈÇØÓ×ÉÍÖôÛÊÆÛÊØçÎÓÆ×ÊÉÓÈà MetroMonitor Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas June 2009 Beneath the constant drumbeat of headline numbers emanating from Washington on U.S. jobs, national unemployment, GDP, and home prices lies a complex, diverse set of 366 metropolitan economies. While no metro area has been immune from the current economic downturn, the pain is unevenly distributed. Some have felt only modest effects, and a few show early signs of recovery, while others are undergoing a wrenching restructuring that may fundamentally alter their economic trajectory. TheMetroMonitor, an interactive barometer of the health of America’s metropolitan economies, looks “beneath the hood” of national economic statistics to portray the diverse metropolitan landscape of recession and recovery across the country. It aims to enhance understanding of the underpinnings of national economic trends, and to promote public- and private-sector responses to the downturn that take into account metro areas’ unique starting points, weaknesses, and strengths—the potential “grassroots green shoots”—for eventual recovery. This edition of the Monitor examines indicators through the first quarter of 2009 (ending in March) in the areas of employment, unemployment, wages, output, home prices, and foreclosure rates for the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. It finds that: The recession has had highly varied impacts on different metropolitan areas, even within the same broad regions of the country. In March 2009 the unemployment rate ranged from 5.1 percent in Provo to 17.5 percent in Modesto. From the beginning of 2008 through the beginning of 2009, home prices fell by 30.6 percent in Stockton but rose by 4.7 percent in Houston. A few metropolitan areas are beginning to showing signs of economic recovery, although none has completely recovered. McAllen is the only metropolitan area that saw growth in both employment and output during the first quarter of 2009. Employment also rose in New Haven and Baton Rouge, while output also increased in Seattle, Austin, Virginia Beach, Washington, Richmond, San Jose, and Riverside. Still, none of these metro areas has yet returned to its pre-recession levels of employment or output. There are two distinct “Manufacturing Belts.” Economic pain is widespread in Midwestern metro areas that depend heavily on the auto industry and its supply chain. Most metro areas in Michigan and Ohio have experienced employment and output declines exceeding national averages. Several, including Dayton, Detroit, and Youngstown, began losing jobs two to three years earlier than the U.S. economy as a whole. At the same time, job losses have been more modest, and housing prices have risen slightly, in many Northeastern metro areas that have less auto-oriented manufacturing sectors (e.g., aerospace in Hartford, photonics in Rochester, plastics in Scranton). ST MM:1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER There are also two distinct Sun Belts. Large swaths of the South and West, particularly metropolitan areas in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and inland California, have suffered severe employment, output, and home value declines over the past year due to the broader housing fallout. Wages in those metro areas have risen rapidly, most likely due to a slowdown in less-skilled migration to those areas, and to disproportionate losses of lower-paying jobs. Yet parts of the Southwest and Deep South—including metro areas in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana— have performed relatively well, experiencing less severe job losses, relatively large wage gains, and modest home price increases. Specializations in energy and government, large amounts of federal hurricane recovery funding for the Gulf Coast, and smaller increases in housing prices during the early and mid-2000s may all help to account for their better performance. Concentrations of jobs in “eds and meds” and government seem to have shielded some metro areas from dramatic job losses. Compared to a national employment decline of 3.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2009, metro areas with specializations in education and health care saw employment drop by an average of only 2.0 percent, and those specialized in government/military employment saw average job losses of 1.3 percent. Specialization in these less volatile economic activities may help account for the relatively stable performance of educational centers like Boston, New Haven, and Provo; health care centers like McAllen, New Haven, and Springfield; and government/military centers like Honolulu, El Paso, and Washington, D.C. Tourism-specialized metro areas suffered relatively large employment declines. Metro areas with job concentrations in arts, entertainment, and recreation, such as Orlando, Las Vegas, and Bradenton, experienced 4.0 percent employment declines on average—reflecting not only the sensitivity of tourism to the recession, but also that many of these same areas had severely overpriced housing and high proportions of their pre-recession employment in real estate and related industries such as construction. A few banking centers have been hard hit, but metro areas specializing in insurance have suffered less. The New York and Charlotte metro areas, the nation’s two foremost banking centers, have suffered in different ways during the recession. Charlotte has suffered deep recent employment losses and its unemployment rate rose dramatically since early 2008, while New York has actually shed jobs at a lower rate than the national average but has experienced steeper declines in output and housing prices. Meanwhile, metro areas specialized in the less-affected insurance industry, such as Des Moines, Hartford, and Omaha, have experienced very modest job losses and have performed relatively well on most other economic indicators. 38 of the top 100 metro areas avoided declines in home prices over the past year, even as prices nationwide dipped 6 percent. Most of these metro areas also experienced below-average employment declines, and lie in the less-affected parts of the “Manufacturing Belt” (Pennsylvania and upstate New York) and Sun Belt (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana). They also exhibit below- average shares of properties in REO (real estate-owned) status due to bank foreclosure. This metropolitan perspective begins to highlight the important role of local economic structure and housing dynamics on performance during the recession. It suggests that recovery may be quite uneven as well, posing particular challenges for policymakers seeking to ensure a truly national rising economic tide. ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Methodology TheMetroMonitor tracks quarterly indicators of economic recession and recovery in the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas—those with at least 500,000 residents in 2007—which collectively contain two-thirds of the nation’s jobs and generate three-quarters of GDP. These indicators include: Employment : Total wage and salary jobs, seasonally adjusted. Percentage change in employment is shown from each metro area’s peak employment quarter to the most recent quarter, measuring the extent to which employment has recovered from the recession’s impact. It is also shown from the previous quarter to the most recent quarter, measuring the extent to which employment is moving toward recovery. Source: Moody’s Economy.com Unemployment rate : Percentage of the labor force that is currently employed, not seasonally adjusted, last month of quarter. Change in the unemployment rate is shown from the same month in previous year because comparisons between different months or quarters are not possible for data that are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages : Average annual wage per job for all jobs combined. Percentage change in the average wage is shown from the previous quarter to the most recent quarter. (Because wages rarely fall during recessions, wage comparisons from each metropolitan area’s peak wage quarter to the current quarter are not usually possible.) Source: Moody’s Economy.com. Gross metropolitan product (GMP) : Total value of goods and services produced within a metro area. The percentage change in GMP is shown from each metro area’s peak GMP quarter to the most recent quarter, and from the previous quarter to the most recent quarter. Source: Moody’s Economy.com. Housing prices : Prices of single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, not seasonally adjusted. Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, the percentage change in housing prices is shown from the same quarter in the previous year to the most recent quarter. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index. Real estate-owned (REO) properties : Foreclosed properties that fail to sell at auction and thus become owned by the lending institution, shown as the share of all mortgageable properties in each metro area in the last month of the most recent quarter (changes in the REO rate are not available this quarter due to data limitations). Source: McDash Analytics. ThisMetroMonitor’s Overall Performance index combines metropolitan rankings on four key indicators: st Percent employment change from peak quarter to 1 quarter 2009 Percentage point change in unemployment rate from March 2008 to March 2009 st Percent GMP change from peak quarter to 1 quarter 2009 stst Percent change in House Price Index from 1 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 Metropolitan areas are then grouped by quintile (groups of 20) based on their average ranking across all four indicators, among the 100 largest metro areas. InteractiveMetroMonitor maps, underlying indicator data, and one-page profiles of each of the 100 largest metro areas are also available at www.brookings.edu/metromonitor ST MM:1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Overall Performance The 100 largest metropolitan areas have varied greatly on changes in their employment level, unemployment rate, gross metropolitan product (GMP), and housing prices. We rank all 100 metropolitan areas on measures of their changes in these indicators since their peak or over the past year, depending on the indicator (see Methodology). We then group the areas by their average rank across all four indicators. This overall performance index yields a striking illustration of disparate economic performance among the nation’s largest metros. Overall performance on change in employment, unemployment rate, GMP, and housing prices The 20 strongest-performing metro areasThe 20 weakest-performing metro areas Albuquerque, NM New Haven, CT Bradenton, FL Modesto, CA Austin, TX Oklahoma City, OK Cape Coral, FL Oxnard, CA Baton Rouge, LA Omaha, NE-IA Detroit, MI Palm Bay, FL Dallas, TX Pittsburgh, PA Fresno, CA Providence, RI-MA Des Moines, IA Rochester, NY Grand Rapids, MI Riverside, CA El Paso, TX San Antonio, TX Jacksonville, FL Sacramento, CA Harrisburg, PA Tulsa, OK Lakeland, FL Stockton, CA Houston, TX Virginia Beach, VA-NC Las Vegas, NV Tampa, FL Little Rock, AR Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV Los Angeles, CAToledo, OH McAllen, TX Wichita, KS Miami, FL Youngstown, OH-PA ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Employment All 100 of the nation’s largest metro have lost jobs during the recession, though pain has varied significantly. Overall, the 100 largest metro areas have suffered a 2.7 percent decline in employment from their peak job levels, just short of the nationwide decline of 2.9 percent. Ten of the 15 metro areas with the largest job losses from their peaks (of more than 5 percent) lie in just three states—California, Florida, and Ohio—and represent a mix of areas buffeted by long-term loss of manufacturing jobs, and areas battered more recently by the subprime mortgage crisis. Meanwhile, several metro areas have experienced employment losses of less than 1 percent from their peaks. Located primarily in Texas and the Plains states, the Mississippi River Valley, and upstate New York, these metro areas have weathered the storm better than most places. Employment patterns in the first quarter of 2009 largely track the longer-run trend. About 40 percent of national job loss over the first 15 months of the recession occurred in the first quarter of 2009. Given the disproportionate influence of last quarter’s employment trend, the winners and losers in short- run employment trends track those over the longer-run. Continued fallout in the housing sector, and recent dramatic impacts in the banking and auto sectors, help account for Charlotte, Phoenix, and Detroit’s rank at the bottom of the list. Meanwhile, New Haven, McAllen, and Baton Rouge appear to be making an early recovery from the relatively modest employment losses they sustained since their peaks. Change in employment Change in employment stthst Peak quarter to 1 quarter 2009 4 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 Percent employment Percent employment change, change, 2008Q4 to RankMetrometro peak to 2009Q1 RankMetro2009Q1 1Oklahoma City, OK-0.2% 1New Haven-Milford, CT 0.2% 2McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr, TX-0.3%2McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 0.2% 3Baton Rouge, LA-0.3%3Baton Rouge, LA 0.0% 4San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA-0.4%4El Paso, TX -0.1% 5Wichita, KS-0.5% 5Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC -0.1% 6Austin-Round Rock, TX-0.5%6Oklahoma City, OK -0.2% 7Syracuse, NY-0.5%7San Antonio, TX -0.3% 8Tulsa, OK-0.6%8Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV -0.3% 9Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX-0.6% 9Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME -0.4% 10Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV-0.6% 10Syracuse, NY -0.4% 11Rochester, NY-0.7% 11Wichita, KS -0.5% 12El Paso, TX-0.7% 12Austin-Round Rock, TX -0.5% 13Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA-1.0% 13Memphis, TN-MS-AR -0.5% 14Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX-1.0%14Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY -0.5% 15Des Moines, IA-1.3%15Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR -0.5% 86Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA-5.8% 86San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA -1.9% 87Greensboro-High Point, NC-5.9%87Indianapolis-Carmel, IN -1.9% 88Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA-5.9%88Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI -2.0% 89Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL-6.1%89Dayton, OH -2.0% 90Dayton, OH-7.0%90Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL -2.0% 91Boise City-Nampa, ID-7.2%91Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA -2.2% 92Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA-7.5%92Tucson, AZ -2.2% 93Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL-7.7%93Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY -2.2% 94Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA-7.8% 94Toledo, OH -2.7% 95Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ-7.8%95Greensboro-High Point, NC -2.7% 96Toledo, OH-8.8%96Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA -2.8% 97Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL-11.2%97Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC -2.9% 98Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI-12.3%98Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ -2.9% 99Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL-13.5%99Boise City-Nampa, ID -3.0% 100New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA-16.0%100Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI -3.0% 100 Largest Metros-1.2% 100 Largest Metros-2.7% United States-1.5% United States-2.9% ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER st Percent change in employment, peak quarter to 1 quarter 2009 thst Percent change in employment, 4 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Employment Peaks Another indication of this recession’s variable impact, employment in each of the 100 largest metro areas reached its highest level at different points in time over the last four-plus years. Fully half of the metro areas reached their job peak between the second quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. But some metro areas continued to gain jobs until the second half of 2008, and a few—including Austin, Oklahoma City, and Omaha—only began to lose jobs in the first quarter of 2009. At the other end of the spectrum, some metro areas experienced employment declines well before the current recession. Employment in Modesto, Youngstown, and Detroit, for instance, topped out between the fourth quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2005. rdst Quarter of peak employment, 3 quarter 2004 to 1 quarter 2009 18 18 16 16 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 33 222 2 11 000 0 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Employment Loss by Industry Specialization Metro areas’ industry compositions appear to relate to their overall employment trend during the recession. Metros with specializations in industries such as manufacturing, arts/entertainment/recreation, and real estate have suffered larger job losses than those with specializations in areas like health care, education, and government. Average employment change for metro areas by metropolitan industry specialization*, thst 4 quarter 2007 to 1 quarter 2009 -1.0% -1.3% -2.0% -2.1% -2.3% -2.3% -2.5% -2.5% -2.7% -2.8% -2.9% -2.9% -3.6% -3.7% -4.0% -4.0% * metro area specialization defined by employment location quotient of at least 1.2; one metro area may specialize in multiple industries ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Unemployment Rate Metropolitan unemployment rates range from 4 percentage points below to 8 percentage points above the national average of 9 percent. The metropolitan areas with the highest unemployment rates in March 2009 generally had the greatest percentage job losses since the recession began in their local economies. Metro areas in Utah, Louisiana, and Texas had relatively modest employment declines and exhibited unemployment rates well below the national average. The same was true of state capitals like Honolulu and Little Rock, as well as Washington, D.C. Metro areas that have lost considerable numbers of jobs, including Midwestern manufacturing centers and those in California’s Central Valley—where unemployment rates were high before the recession—place near the bottom of the rankings on this measure. Unemployment rates rose in all metro areas in the year ending March 2009. Just as all metro areas lost jobs since the recession began, no metro area has avoided an increase in its unemployment rate. Metropolitan areas ranked by change in unemployment rates largely track rankings for unemployment in March 2009, with more Florida metros appearing near the bottom (where unemployment rates were somewhat below-average before the recession). Notably, Portland, OR outpaced all metro areas in the past year with a 6.6-point increase in its unemployment rate. Change in unemployment rate Unemployment rate, March 2009March 2008 to March 2009 Percentage Point Change in Unemployment Unemployment Rate, March 2008 RankMetroRate, March 2009RankMetroto March 2009 1Provo-Orem, UT5.1%1Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA1.2% 2Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA5.1%2Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR1.4% 3Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA5.2%3Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA1.5% 4Salt Lake City, UT5.2%4Baton Rouge, LA1.5% 5Baton Rouge, LA5.2%5Provo-Orem, UT1.7% 6New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA5.3%6San Antonio, TX1.9% 7Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR5.5%7New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA1.9% 8Ogden-Clearfield, UT5.5%8Salt Lake City, UT2.0% 9Oklahoma City, OK5.6%9Ogden-Clearfield, UT2.0% 10Honolulu, HI5.8%10Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH2.3% 11Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV5.9%11Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY2.3% 12San Antonio, TX5.9%12Oklahoma City, OK2.3% 13Austin-Round Rock, TX6.2%13Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX2.3% 14Tulsa, OK6.3%14Austin-Round Rock, TX2.3% 15Albuquerque, NM6.3%15Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT2.4% 86Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI11.3%86Bakersfield, CA5.2% 87Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA11.3%87Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL5.3% 88Greensboro-High Point, NC11.3%88Orlando-Kissimmee, FL5.3% 89Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA11.3%89Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL5.4% 90Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC11.4%90Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL5.5% 91Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA11.8%91San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA5.6% 92Toledo, OH12.1%92Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA5.9% 93Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL12.2%93Fresno, CA5.9% 94Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA12.8%94Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA6.0% 95Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA12.9%95Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI6.0% 96Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI14.0%96Greensboro-High Point, NC6.0% 97Bakersfield, CA15.9%97Stockton, CA6.2% 98Stockton, CA16.4%98Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC6.3% 99Fresno, CA17.0%99Modesto, CA6.4% 100Modesto, CA17.5%100Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA6.6% 100 Largest Metros8.8%100 Largest Metros3.7% United States9.0%United States3.8% ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Unemployment rate, March 2009 Change in unemployment rate, March 2008 to March 2009 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Wages Average wages continue to rise in most metro areas. Even in recessions, average wages typically do not fall; economists refer to wages as “sticky” because it can be difficult for employers to cut them. Several metro areas that have sustained large job losses, such as Phoenix, Cape Coral, Boise, Las Vegas, and Stockton, actually saw average wages rise over the last quarter. This may indicate that migration to these places has slowed, especially among less skilled workers, and that their recent job losses have occurred disproportionately among lower-paying industries. Yet fully 14 metro areas did post average wage declines, including several in New York state, and others that may be shedding higher-paying jobs on average, such as Chicago, Miami, and Raleigh. Percent change in average wage thst 4 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER thst Percent change in average wage, 4 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Gross Metropolitan Product Though all metro areas have experienced declines in gross metropolitan product (GMP), patterns differ slightly from those for employment. All 100 metro areas have experienced a decline in economic output from their pre-recessionary peak, with nine of the 15 metros experiencing the sharpest declines located in Florida, Michigan, and Ohio. The map shows particularly acute downturns affecting metro areas in the country’s midsection, even stretching into upstate New York, where employment declines have not been as severe. Metro areas with more modest GMP declines include those in Texas and Oklahoma that also had smaller employment declines, as well as a few in Florida and California, where significant job losses may have been concentrated among lower-paying industries and occupations. Some metros saw increased output last quarter, while others continued their decline. Eight metro areas—including some centers of government and high-tech employment—actually posted slight increases in GMP over the last quarter, signaling that they may be turning the corner already. But GMP in most metro areas continues to fall, especially in the country’s midsection and around the Great Lakes, where manufacturing job losses appear to translate into significant declines in incomes and output. Percent change in GMP Percent change in GMP stthst Peak quarter to 1 quarter 20094 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 Percent change in Percent change in GDP from each GDP from 2008Q4 metro's peak to RankMetroto 2009Q1 RankMetro2009Q1 1Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA0.6% 1Austin-Round Rock, TX0%* 2Austin-Round Rock, TX0.6% 1McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr, TX0%* 3Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC0.3% 3Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV-0.1% 4Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV0.3% 4Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX-0.4% 5Richmond, VA0.2% 5Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC-0.5% 6McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr, TX0.1% 6San Antonio, TX-0.5% 7San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA0.0% 7Oklahoma City, OK-0.5% 8Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA0.0% 8Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX-0.7% 9Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX-0.1% 9Richmond, VA-0.8% 10San Antonio, TX-0.2% 10San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA-1.0% 11Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL-0.2% 11El Paso, TX-1.0% 12San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA-0.3% 12Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT-1.1% 13Las Vegas-Paradise, NV-0.3% 13Raleigh-Cary, NC-1.1% 14El Paso, TX-0.3% 14Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA-1.3% 15Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX-0.3% 15Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA-1.3% 86Knoxville, TN-1.7% 86Louisville, KY-IN-5.2% 87Columbus, OH-1.7% 87Kansas City, MO-KS-5.3% 88Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY-1.8% 88Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Tonawanda, NY-5.3% 89Dayton, OH-5.3%89Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Tonawanda, NY-1.8% 90Syracuse, NY-5.4%90Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA-1.8% 91Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL-5.5%91Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI-1.8% 92Toledo, OH-5.8% 92Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA-1.9% 93Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA-5.9% 93Dayton, OH-1.9% 94Akron, OH-6.0% 94Syracuse, NY-1.9% 95Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH-6.2% 95Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH-2.1% 96Stockton, CA-6.6% 96Kansas City, MO-KS-2.2% 97Jacksonville, FL-6.8% 97New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA-2.2% 98Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA-7.1% 98St. Louis, MO-IL-2.2% 99New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA-9.6% 99Louisville, KY-IN-2.4% 100Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI-10.1% 100Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI-2.9% 100 Largest MetrosNA** 100 Largest MetrosNA** United States-3.3% United States-1.6% * GMP in Austin and McAllen peaked this quarter. ** Only the U.S. average is used for comparison due to an inflation adjustment method that makes a 100-metro average incomparable. ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER st Percent change in GMP, peak quarter to 1 quarter 2009 thst Percent change in GMP, 4 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Housing Prices Many metro areas have suffered housing price declines well above the national average, while others have actually seen increases. As the map below shows, the most severe housing price declines are even more highly concentrated in metro areas in California, Florida, and the Intermountain West than are other indicators of economic distress. Five metro areas—Las Vegas, Cape Coral, Riverside, Modesto, and Stockton—experienced real price drops of more than 25 percent between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Another swath of moderate declines links metro areas along the Northeast corridor. Yet 38 of the 100 largest metros actually managed to post stable or modestly rising home prices over the past year. Most were located in the nation’s interior and parts of the Southeast that did not experience the same dramatic run-up in prices over the decade as coastal metro areas. st Change in House Price Index, 1 quarter 2008 to st 1 quarter 2009 Real percent change in HPI, 2008Q1 to RankMetro2009Q1 1Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX4.7% 2Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY4.2% 3Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX3.4% 4Wichita, KS3.3% 5Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC3.1% 6Tulsa, OK3.0% 7Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR2.8% 8Oklahoma City, OK2.8% 9San Antonio, TX2.6% 10Rochester, NY2.5% 11Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA2.4% 12Austin-Round Rock, TX2.4% 13McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX2.3% 14Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC2.3% 15Columbia, SC2.2% 86Orlando-Kissimmee, FL-14.2% 87Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA-14.4% 88Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA-15.3% 89Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL-15.3% 90Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL-15.4% 91Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA-15.8% 92Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ-16.6% 93Fresno, CA-19.7% 94Bakersfield, CA-22.1% 95Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Homestead, FL-23.0% 96Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL-25.3% 97Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA-27.7% 98Modesto, CA-28.8% 99Las Vegas-Paradise, NV-28.9% 100Stockton, CA-30.6% 100 Largest Metros-6.9% United States-6.3% ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER stst Percent change in House Price Index, 1 quarter 2008 to 1 quarter 2009 Real Estate Owned (REO) Properties The largest concentrations of bank-owned homes are located in metro areas that have experienced the steepest house price declines. Six metro areas—in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada— record at least 10 real-estate-owned (REO) properties for every 1,000 mortgageable properties. These metro areas were effectively ground zero for the subprime mortgage crisis. A few metro areas that are somewhat healthier economically, but that experienced significant exurban expansion in recent years— Atlanta, Washington, and Minneapolis—register high REO rates as well. By contrast, the better performing manufacturing-based metro areas of the Northeast—especially those in upstate New York and Pennsylvania—have relatively few bank-owned properties, owing perhaps to lower initial penetration of subprime loans and more modest recent employment losses. REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties, March RankMetro2009 1Syracuse, NY0.58 2Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY0.61 3Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA0.71 4Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY0.88 5Honolulu, HI0.91 6Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA0.94 7Madison, WI0.96 8Baton Rouge, LA1.05 9Pittsburgh, PA1.06 10Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ1.07 11Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD1.07 12El Paso, TX1.10 13Portland-South Portland, ME1.12 14Rochester, NY1.13 15Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT1.17 86Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL6.22 87Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA6.27 88Orlando, FL6.45 6.49 89Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-W V 90Fresno, CA6.55 91Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA7.45 92Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI7.63 93Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI9.75 94Bakersfield, CA9.84 95Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ10.91 96Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL12.62 97Modesto, CA13.84 98Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA14.14 99Stockton, CA14.73 100Las Vegas-Paradise, NV15.43 100 Largest Metros3.87 United States3.06 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Appendix: Metro performance across four key indicators Percent change in Percentage point Percent change in Real percent change in employment, from change in gross metropolitan Metro RankRankRankhousing prices, Rank peak employment to unemployment rate, product, from peak 2008Q1 to 2009Q1 2009Q12008Q1 to 2009Q1GMP to 2009Q1 San Antonio, TX -0.4%41.9%6-0.5%62.6%9 Oklahoma City, OK -0.2%12.3%12-0.5%72.8%8 Houston, TX -0.6%92.3%13-0.7%84.7%1 Austin, TX -0.5%62.3%14NA*12.4%12 Dallas, TX -1.0%142.6%21-0.4%43.4%3 Little Rock, AR -1.5%191.4%2-2.2%272.8%7 McAllen, TX -0.3%23.1%40NA*12.3%13 Baton Rouge, LA -0.3%31.5%4-2.3%322.0%18 Tulsa, OK -0.6%82.9%32-1.7%193.0%6 Omaha, NE-IA -1.0%131.5%3-2.2%280.4%34 El Paso, TX -0.7%122.5%17-1.0%11-1.5%48 Wichita, KS -0.5%52.7%25-4.4%753.3%4 Des Moines, IA -1.3%151.2%1-3.5%600.1%36 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV -0.6%102.7%24-0.1%3-8.8%77 Albuquerque, NM -1.6%232.6%22-1.6%17-2.1%52 Harrisburg, PA -2.0%323.0%35-1.9%200.6%29 Virginia Beach, VA-NC -1.3%163.1%37-0.5%5-3.2%60 New Haven, CT -1.4%182.5%19-2.0%22-3.5%61 Pittsburgh, PA -1.8%262.5%16-3.5%592.0%19 Rochester, NY -0.7%112.7%23-4.4%772.5%10 Jackson, MS -2.2%352.5%18-2.9%430.6%28 Scranton, PA -2.5%443.2%44-2.2%262.4%11 Augusta, GA-SC -1.8%283.4%50-3.0%452.3%14 Hartford, CT -2.0%312.4%15-2.5%37-2.3%55 Bridgeport, CT -2.4%412.5%20-1.1%12-4.5%67 Syracuse, NY -0.5%72.8%29-5.4%902.0%16 Columbia, SC -2.2%374.1%63-2.3%312.2%15 Albany, NY -1.5%212.3%11-5.1%850.5%30 Portland, ME -1.8%293.0%34-2.5%36-2.0%51 Boston, MA-NH -1.5%223.1%38-2.4%34-2.8%57 Ogden, UT -2.5%422.0%9-3.3%51-1.5%49 Raleigh, NC -2.9%514.6%75-1.1%132.0%17 Madison, WI -2.8%472.8%26-2.7%41-0.4%43 Honolulu, HI -1.9%303.2%43-2.0%23-3.9%64 Poughkeepsie, NY -1.4%172.8%28-2.8%42-6.2%75 Salt Lake City, UT -1.8%272.0%8-3.7%66-4.0%65 Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD -2.4%403.2%45-2.3%30-2.3%54 Memphis, TN-MS-AR -2.8%492.9%30-3.4%530.0%38 Denver, CO -3.1%573.4%49-2.9%441.7%21 Columbus, OH -1.7%253.0%36-4.8%800.4%32 Colorado Springs, CO -3.9%713.0%33-2.1%24-0.9%46 Indianapolis, IN -3.3%614.0%62-1.9%210.5%31 Allentown, PA-NJ -2.5%433.2%46-2.1%25-3.9%63 Kansas City, MO-KS -1.5%202.9%31-5.3%87-0.3%41 Buffalo, NY -2.9%523.1%39-5.3%884.2%2 Richmond, VA -3.3%624.1%64-0.8%9-2.2%53 Worcester, MA -1.7%243.5%53-3.2%50-4.7%68 Chattanooga, TN-GA -2.3%393.6%54-4.4%760.8%27 St. Louis, MO-IL -2.3%383.2%42-4.6%79-0.2%39 Nashville, TN -3.6%703.8%58-3.0%460.9%25 Greenville, SC -2.8%485.2%85-3.5%623.1%5 Baltimore, MD -2.2%363.6%55-2.6%38-5.6%72 Seattle, WA -2.6%454.5%72-1.3%14-5.9%73 Provo, UT -4.1%731.7%5-3.4%56-5.6%71 Knoxville, TN -3.0%533.5%51-4.8%810.8%26 Springfield, MA -3.1%583.1%41-3.7%65-1.7%50 Atlanta, GA -4.5%753.9%61-2.5%35-0.8%45 Charleston, SC -3.1%554.7%77-2.3%29-2.4%56 Charlotte, NC-SC -5.0%826.3%98-1.4%161.3%22 New York, NY-NJ-PA -2.1%343.4%48-3.9%69-4.9%69 ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER Percent change in Percentage point Percent change in Real percent change in employment, from change in gross metropolitan Metro RankRankRankhousing prices, Rank peak employment to unemployment rate, product, from peak 2008Q1 to 2009Q1 2009Q12008Q1 to 2009Q1GMP to 2009Q1 Minneapolis, MN-WI -3.0%543.5%52-3.1%49-4.1%66 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN -2.8%503.6%56-4.4%780.1%37 Birmingham, AL -3.4%684.5%74-3.5%612.0%20 Cleveland, OH -4.7%782.3%10-6.2%95-0.7%44 Louisville, KY-IN -3.1%564.4%71-5.2%861.0%24 Tucson, AZ -4.8%792.8%27-3.4%55-9.0%79 San Jose, CA -3.2%605.6%91-1.0%10-11.0%82 San Diego, CA -2.6%464.1%65-3.1%48-13.0%84 New Orleans, LA -16.0%1001.9%7-9.6%99-0.3%40 Milwaukee, WI -3.4%674.2%67-3.7%67-1.0%47 Chicago, IL-IN-WI -3.1%593.8%59-4.2%73-3.8%62 Portland, OR-WA -3.4%666.6%100-1.6%18-5.0%70 Greensboro, NC -5.9%876.0%96-3.4%581.1%23 Akron, OH -3.5%693.9%60-6.0%94-0.4%42 Phoenix, AZ -7.8%953.3%47-2.4%33-16.6%92 Bakersfield, CA -2.1%335.2%86-3.4%54-22.1%94 San Francisco, CA -3.4%644.5%73-3.3%52-11.2%83 Boise City, ID -7.2%914.1%66-3.0%47-7.6%76 Dayton, OH -7.0%904.3%70-5.3%890.3%35 Orlando, FL -5.1%835.3%88-2.7%39-14.2%86 Riverside, CA -7.8%945.9%92-1.3%15-27.7%97 Miami, FL -4.5%763.7%57-4.1%71-23.0%95 Las Vegas, NV -4.8%805.1%84-2.7%40-28.9%99 Los Angeles, CA -4.1%724.8%80-3.6%64-15.3%88 Grand Rapids, MI -5.5%854.9%81-4.8%82-3.1%59 Sacramento, CA -5.9%884.9%82-3.4%57-14.4%87 Oxnard, CA -5.8%864.2%68-4.0%70-15.8%91 Youngstown, OH-PA -7.5%926.0%94-7.1%980.4%33 Providence, RI-MA -5.4%844.3%69-5.9%93-6.0%74 Fresno, CA -4.2%745.9%93-3.6%63-19.7%93 Toledo, OH -8.8%964.8%79-5.8%92-3.0%58 Jacksonville, FL -4.7%774.6%76-6.8%97-8.9%78 Modesto, CA -3.4%656.4%99-3.7%68-28.8%98 Lakeland, FL -4.9%815.4%89-4.9%83-10.5%81 Palm Bay, FL -7.7%934.8%78-5.0%84-15.3%89 Bradenton, FL -11.2%975.3%87-4.3%74-15.4%90 Tampa, FL -6.1%895.0%83-5.5%91-13.2%85 Stockton, CA -3.3%636.2%97-6.6%96-30.6%100 Cape Coral, FL -13.5%995.5%90-4.1%72-25.3%96 Detroit, MI -12.3%986.0%95-10.1%100-9.3%80 100 Largest Metros-2.7%3.7%NA**-6.9% United States-2.9%3.8%-3.3%-6.3% * GMP in Austin and McAllen peaked this quarter. ** Only the U.S. average is used for comparison due to an inflation adjustment method that makes a 100-metro average incomparable. Overall metropolitan performance, and performance on each component indicator, is grouped by quintile (20 metro areas each) and indicated by the following shading: Strongest Second Strongest MiddleSecond Weakest Weakest ST MM: 1Q2009 ETROONITORUARTER About the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution Created in 1996, the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program provides decision makers with cutting-edge research and policy ideas for improving the health and prosperity of cities and metropolitan areas including their component cities, suburbs, and rural areas. To learn more visit: www.brookings.edu/metro The Blueprint for American Prosperity TheBlueprint for American Prosperity is a multi-year initiative to promote an economic agenda for the nation that builds on the assets and centrality of America’s metropolitan areas. Grounded in empirical research and analysis, the Blueprint offers an integrated policy agenda and specific federal reforms designed to give metropolitan areas the tools they need to generate economically productive growth, to build a strong and diverse middle class, and to grow in environmentally sustainable ways. Learn more at www.blueprintprosperity.org The Metropolitan Policy Program Leadership Council TheBlueprint initiative is supported and informed by a network of leaders who strive every day to create the kind of healthy and vibrant communities that form the foundation of the U.S. economy. The Metropolitan Policy Program Leadership Council—a bipartisan network of individual, corporate, and philanthropic investors—comes from a broad array of metropolitan areas around the nation. Council members provide us financial support but, more importantly, are true intellectual and strategic partners in theBlueprint. While many of these leaders act globally, they retain a commitment to the vitality of their local and regional communities, a rare blend that makes their engagement even more valuable. To learn more about the members of our Leadership Council, please visit www.blueprintprosperity.org For More Information Alan Berube Senior Fellow and Research Director aberube@brookings.edu Howard Wial Fellow and Director, Metropolitan Economy Initiative hwial@brookings.edu Alec Friedhoff Research Analyst afriedhoff@brookings.edu David Warren Research Analyst ûìÊÍÉÌ×ÙÈÇÉ ûÉÎׯ×ÊÚ×ÖÍÊ× ÈÔ×ÎÛÈÓÍΪÉ×ÙÍÎÍÏÓÙ ÌÊÍÉÌ×ÙÈÉÛÊ×Ú×ÓÎÕ ÈÔÊ×ÛÈ×ÎרÚÃÕÐÍÚÛÐ ÙÍÏÌ×ÈÓÈÍÊÉÛÐÐÍÖÅÔÍÏ ÔÛÆ×ÙÊ×ÛÈרÐÍÎÕÊÛÎÕ× ÉÈÊÛÈ×ÕÓ×ÉÖÍÊÕÊÍÅÈÔ ÛÎØÙÍÏÌ×ÈÓÈÓÆ×Î×ÉÉ ÷Ä×ÙÇÈÓÆ×éÇÏÏÛÊà óÎÈÔ×ÌÊÍÙ×ÉÉÍÖÛÙÔÓׯÓÎÕÈÔ×É×ÍÇÈÙÍÏ×ÉÅ×ÛÊ×ÔÛÊÎ×ÉÉÓÎÕÍÎ×ÍÖ ÅÓÐÐÌÊÍÆÓØ×ÛÖÊÛÏ×ÅÍÊÑÖÍÊÈÔ× èÔ×ûÏ×ÊÓÙÛ éÈÊÛÈ×Õà ûÏ×ÊÓÙÛªÉÕÊ×ÛÈÉÈÊ×ÎÕÈÔɦÈÔ×ÛÚÓÐÓÈÃÍÖÌÊÓÆÛÈ×ÛÉÉÍÙÓÛÈÓÍÎÉÍÖÚÇÉÓÎ×ÉÉ ÌÇÚÐÓÙÛÎØÌÊÓÆÛÈ×ÌÍÐÓÙÓ×ÉÛÎØÓÎÆ×ÉÈÏ×ÎÈÉÎ×ררÈÍÛÙÙÍÏÏÍØÛÈ× ÛÎØÙÓÆÓÙÐ×ÛØ×ÊÉÈÍÅÍÊÑÓÎÌÛÊÈÎ×ÊÉÔÓÌÅÓÈÔÕÍÆ×ÊÎÏ×ÎÈÛÙÊÍÉÉ×ÙÍÎÍÏÓÙ ÈÔ×ÎÛÈÓÍΪÉÕÊÍÅÈÔÓÎÈÔ× ÉÈÙ×ÎÈÇÊÃèÔÓÉÖÊÛÏ×ÅÍÊÑÓÉÇÊÕ×ÎÈÐà É×ÙÈÍÊÉÌÍÐÓÈÓÙÛÐÚÍÇÎØÛÊÓ×ÉÛÎØÖÇÎÙÈÓÍÎÛÐØÓÉÙÓÌÐÓÎ×Éå×ÛÊ×ÙÊ×ÛÈÓÎÕ 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A Critical Analysis of Thomas L. Friedman’s New York Times Bestseller Authors: Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo Publisher: Meghan-Kiffer Press Date of Publication: August 2006 ISBN: 0929652045 No. of Pages: 132 Buy This Book [Summary published by CapitolReader.com on February 8, 2007] Click here for more political books from . Meghan-Kiffer Press About The Authors: Ronald Aronica is a business analyst and consultant. He is the author of the widely acclaimed book, The Death of ‘e’ and the Birth of the Real New Economy. Mtetwa Ramdoo is an independent business research analyst who focuses on the impact of globalization on various industries, business in general, and social transformation. General Overview: The World Is Flat?: A Critical Analysisof Thomas L. Friedman’s New York Times Bestselleris Aronica and Ramdoo’s critique of the international bestselling book on the globalization of America. While the authors agree that globalization is the greatest reorganization of the world since the Industrial Revolution, they disagree with Friedman’s interpretation of how we have gotten to this point, what it means to our future, and why it’s important that we all understand it. In addition to an overview of the general failure of Friedman’s book to explain globalization, it points out where Friedman leaves out large amounts of information, which if included, would provide an entirely different perspective from his own. * Please Note:This CapitolReader.com summary does not offer judgmentor opinion on the book’s content. The ideas, viewpoints and arguments are presented just as the book’s author has intended. - Page 1 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock NewMedia,Inc. No part of this summarymay be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.comand Shamrock New Media,Inc.Therespective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of ShamrockNew Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Globalization Globalization is the issue of our times. Unfortunately, there is no universally understood definition of the word. Whether it’s referred to as homogenization, the end of history, or, more recently, “a flat world,” there still remains a lot of confusion as to what it is and what it means to America and the world. What we do know is that it is highly complex and rooted in both cooperation and violence. Its reality is placing the world under great stress and turning everything we know upside down. Desperate for information, millions have turned to one book, The World is Flat, by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. Unfortunately, instead of real answers, readers receive incomplete stories from Friedman’s friends, elite CEOs, and other personal contacts of the author. The result is a particular perspective that doesn’t tell the whole story. What’s more important, world leaders in politics and business are listening to Friedman’s book without checking the facts and this could be very dangerous. As bestselling author Harry G. Frankfurt has explained, people are guided by their beliefs concerning the way things are. This is not the same as intentionally lying. It is not uncommon for people to make assertions without paying attention to anything other than what it suits them to say. But without the full perspective, it all ends up just being wrong, which in Frankfurt’s opinion, is a greater enemy of the truth than lies. While readers will not find a lie in Friedman’s book, neither will they find the whole truth or even the most important points of globalization. Friedman paints a rosy picture of globalization and its effects, but what we need is a rigorous and complete analysis of total global competition. The Media-Appointed Expert Friedman’s general thesis is that technological innovations combined with almost universal adoption of free market economics have leveled the playing field for developing countries. He takes this thesis and overstates it so greatly that everyone is left feeling desperate to get with the program of free trade, capitalism, and technological innovation. To cover himself, he does devote one chapter to the “unflat world,” but this is overshadowed by the extremely favorable analysis of globalization. Big media’s push of Friedman’s book has definitely paid off. In addition to being on the bestsellers list, Friedman has garnered praise from all over. He is considered one of the world’s leading thinkers and his description of the next phase of globalization is seen as ingenious. President Clinton attends conferences where Friedman speaks and media authorities such as The Boston Globe,Christian Science Monitor, and the United Kingdom’s Telegraphall tout him as the expert on the issue. All the praise and accolades have resulted in readers, including some of the world’s most powerful government and corporate leaders, believing Friedman’s book is the whole truth on the topic of globalization. This belief has the potential to do great harm. - Page 2 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Doubting Thomas One of the biggest problems with Friedman’s book is that his viewpoint is extremely narrow. The few informants he uses all reinforce his own beliefs. The half-truths his corporate buddies assert, all on the fortunate side of things, are accepted as global because they already fit into what he imagined globalization would be. He almost completely ignores the problems globalization has caused in India and China, choosing instead to focus on their growing middle class and efficient work ethic. As with any other topic, when you are so enamored with its potential, you can’t really tackle the issue in all its complexity. Friedman also ignores some of the more controversial subjects in developing countries, such as the patenting of life forms and seeds. He fails to address the contradictions in his theory from those by two of the more prominent critiques of globalization in recent years: Joseph Stiglitz’s Globalization and Its Discontents and George Soros’ Globalization. He almost totally ignores South America, choosing instead to focus on China and his favorite developing nation, India. This is likely because, while South America used to be the poster child of globalization, the continent has fallen on hard times and its people are rejecting further attempts to be flattened. Several economists and global theorists have criticized his style and approach and have pointed to inaccuracies, crucial omissions, and misleading exaggerations. Professor of Anthropology at San Jose State University, Roberto J. Gonzalez calls the book “culturally misinformed, historically inadequate and intellectually impoverished….Friedman’s understanding of culture is simplistic and sloppy.” While He Was Sleeping Friedman goes on about Globalization 3.0, a movement empowering the individual. He quotes Bill Gates as saying that any kid with access to the internet is as empowered as he is. But Globalization 3.0 is not about empowering individuals, it’s about transnational corporations being totally deregulated and above the control of any nation state, giving them the power to exploit the poor in new ways. Friedman does not acknowledge this at all. The Forces Flattening The World Friedman spends several pages identifying what he thinks are the forces leading us straight to globalization, but misses the big picture in most of them. The Fall of the Berlin Wall didn’t flatten the world; it flattened individuals and put more Soviets than ever into extreme poverty. Almost a decade after this flattening force, almost half the population of Russia lives below the poverty line. Work Flow Software was not a genesis moment in flattening; it only made companies more powerful. Besides, most companies have moved beyond Work Flow and focus now on Business Process Management. - Page 3 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Open Sourcing has not become the equalizer Friedman claims it was. Ask anyone in China who has tried to start their own blog and notice how corporations like News Corp. have swallowed up sites like MySpace.com, to use for their own good. Outsourcing, insourcing, homesourcing, etc. were not a product of the dot-com boom. They’ve been around for a while and are all ways companies can get the same work for less pay and no benefits, taking further advantage of their workers. Off-shoring did not take off when China joined the WTO as Friedman claims. China’s entrance into capitalism has existed since the 1970s and has done little to flatten the world for most of that country’s citizens. Informing, according to Friedman, is taken care of by using the internet to self- collaborate, become your own self-directed and self-empowered researcher, etc. He misinforms by making the process seem much easier than it is for most. “Steroids” is Friedman’s word for amplifying technologies like increased computing speed, wireless technology, etc. The truth is that most of the world doesn’t have access to these “steroids” and won’t for a long time. Friedman could have saved dozens of pages if he focused on the three real drivers of the st 21 century: Containerized Cargo Shipping – otherwise known as ‘The Box’ – removed and reduced barriers for trade across the world. Continuing Advances in Global Communication began with the 1957 launch of Sputnik and continues today with TV and the Internet. Cheap Labor has been available since 1979 when China was opened to capitalism, followed by India and the Soviet Union. Triple Convergence Friedman explains the triple convergence as: 1)A global, web-enabled playing field that allows for multiple levels of collaboration. 2)Development of new ways to collaborate. 3)Societies such as China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe and Latin America opening up. Friedman says this is the most important force shaping global economics, which he just recently discovered. (For instance, he just recently found out that you can print your Southwest Airlines boarding pass at home.) Regarding “Convergence 3,” Friedman claims that three billion people are ready to “plug and play,” but is that true? The reality is that 99.5% of these 3 billion new flat worlders simply don’t have access to the Internet. Friedman plays fast and loose with the numbers, at one point, narrowing it down to 1.5 billion and then dividing that by ten. - Page 4 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. The Not So Great Sorting Out Friedman says that when the world starts to move to an increasingly horizontal creation model, it won’t just affect business; it will affect everything.Free-market Friedman shares a utopian, digitally-connected flat world where even the nation-state could wane as flat-world capitalists create, in the words of Marx, “a world after its own image.” Instead of a utopia, it is possible that we are experiencing the unleashing of the transnational corporation to pursue unfettered raw capitalism. The closest comparison can be seen in the Industrial Revolution excess that had to be reigned in by environmental and labor regulations. Friedman sees a flat world where companies have squeezed out all the inefficiencies and friction from their markets and operations. But this could be a mixed blessing, which Friedman doesn’t tell you. It might be good for global business, but could also create a proletarian revolution. It may pose a threat to the distinctive places and communities that give us our bearings; that locate us in the world. Friedman’s vision of a perfect market, unimpeded by protectionist pressures, disparate legal systems, cultural and linguistics differences or ideological disagreements clashes with reality. Some of these inefficiencies are institutions, habits, cultures, and the traditions that people cherish precisely because they reflect non-market values like social cohesion, religious faith, and national pride. Free Trade & The Flat World In discussing America and Free Trade, Friedman relies on Economist David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage to justify globalization as an economic project. The th problem with this is that Ricardo developed his thinking in the 18 century when things like economies of sale were pretty much unknown. In an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times, Senator Charles Schumer and Paul Roberts, who served in the Treasury Department during the Reagan administration, noted that when Ricardo said free trade would produce shared gains, he assumed that resources would not be easily moved over international borders. The notion of “pure competition” is often implied in Friedman’s book, but it has never been a reality. There is very little free trade in today’s world. Parts of the world are playing “dirty free trade,” including America. For example, we protect the sugar industry and sometimes put tariffs on steel. Our objective is consumer welfare or a consumer- oriented dirty free trade. Many countries in Asia practice mercantilism, others like China practice strategic economics. The global market is much more complicated than Friedman claims. - Page 5 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. The Untouchables According to Friedman, an Untouchable is someone whose job can’t be outsourced because they are either specialized (too specific to transfer abroad), anchored (have to physically be in place), or are very adaptable. Friedman is telling us that that we all should become masters of social, organizational, and motivational skills. He’s basically telling us that we should all become managers. But managers don’t work, they manage. They collaborate, orchestrate, synthesize, leverage, etc. So who does the work? That all gets sent to India or China. Then, who is left to manage? How does the individual fit into this world? Friedman tells us that we have to constantly upgrade our skills; this is also known as life-long learning and it’s not exactly a new concept. This is clichéd nonsense that doesn’t address the real impact of globalization. The Right Stuff Friedman identifies themes important for educators to emphasize in a flat world: learning, passion, curiosity, liking others, and nourishing the right brain. His advice is to roll up our shirtsleeves and educate our young people the right way. Here, he offers more clichés and simplistic solutions to quite complex and even intractable problems. The “Quiet” Crisis Friedman asserts America’s numbers gap in terms of the amount of the scientists and engineers America produces, but this is not a “quiet” crisis. A number of media outlets have been reporting this trend for a long time. Friedman claims that in order to compete with India and China, we need to create more scientists and engineers. Meanwhile, IBM just laid off 15,000 Americans and hired 45,000 Indians. More and more engineers and scientists in America are losing their jobs to India and China. What would be positive about creating more scientists and engineers if the ones we have are losing jobs by the thousands? As this trend continues, all of the engineering and science grads we produce will need to go overseas for jobs. Developing Countries & the Flat World Friedman only briefly discusses the problems of developing countries, but says the answer to their problems is to basically “drink the corporate Kool-Aid.” He spends a lot of time criticizing Arab cultures, especially Saudi Arabia, because they resist globalization. He also targets Mexico as another loser in the new flat world. He blames Mexico’s failure after NAFTA on a lack of “reform retail.” But one might consider that the real reason Mexico failed was because it was competing with China, which invested heavily in infrastructure and education. Mexico could not do the same due to limited tax revenue, exacerbated by the loss of tariff revenue due to NAFTA. - Page 6 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Companies & the Flat World Friedman offers rules for companies aspiring to be successful in the Globalization 3.0 era based on contacting his network of CEOs. He claims to have found a new way of doing business and uses the examples of Starbucks. When Starbucks allowed their customers to tell them what drinks they wanted, they changed their menu to include eight soy products that the company would have never thought up itself. Friedman says these companies create platforms to allow customers to serve themselves. Friedman calls his brilliant new consumer idea ‘prosumer’ and it was actually introduced thirty years ago by Marshall McLuhan and Barrington Nevitt who suggested that with electronic technology, the consumer would become the producer. This concept is nothing new and has little to do with the impact of globalization. Geopolitics & the Flat World Friedman begins his analysis of the “Unflat World” by confessing that he knows the world is not flat, but he is certain that the world has been shrinking and flattening for some time now and that the process has dramatically quickened in recent years. John Gray of the London School of Economics criticizes Friedman’s analysis of the unflat world and labels Friedman as a passionate missionary for “neoliberals.” For neoliberals, it is technological advance that fuels economic development and economic forces that shape society. Politics and culture are secondary phenomenon. Gray has issues with the neoliberal point of view in that it suggests a misleading, simple view of history as can be seen in Friedman’s account of the demise of the Soviet Union. (Friedman credits most of the demise to the information revolution that began in the mid- 1980s. He completely ignores the role of Solidarity, the Catholic Church, and the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which most historians credit for the decline of Soviet power.) Overcoming Obstacles Friedman goes on to describe the ultimate goal of his flat world: attaining entry into some sort of global middle class. He says, “You can be in the middle class in your head whether you make $2 a day or $200, if you believe in social mobility – that your kids have a chance to live better than you do – and that hard work and playing by the rules of your society will get you where you want to go.” Middle class on $2 a day? This globalization stuff is nothing less than magic. Friedman spends time focusing on the four key obstacles for people who can’t get into the flat world: Too Sick, Too Disempowered, Too Frustrated, and Too Many Toyotas. He foresees us overcoming these obstacles by, among other things, a humanitarian push by the world’s corporations. But corporations are focused on shareholder value, not humanitarian missions. Through his rose-colored glasses, Friedman blames lack of horizontal collaboration as the true cause of these disempowered and left behind individuals and he faults the very same corporate globalism that he claims is the solution. - Page 7 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. One real disappointment is that Friedman provides so little discussion on the critical obstacle of the environment. Despite driving a shiny new SUV himself, Friedman insists that real patriots, real advocates of democracy, live green, but he doesn’t offer any more on how this should be done. Human Rights In the 2006 edition of his book, Friedman says the Cultural Revolution has now begun because of podcasting, which he calls a new tool for globalizing the local. While Friedman may imagine the world podcasting to save their culture, reality says something else. Human Rights Watch’s 2005 survey shows China increasing its constraints on its citizens, especially in the areas of religious rights. Friedman claims the revolution is from the bottom up, but he ignores the censorship rules that even Yahoo!,Google and Microsoft have to adhere to in China. Even if the bottom could afford or get access to technology, how will their podcasts ever reach anyone? Conflict Resolution Friedman attempts to explain how we can end war through the Dell Theory of Conflict Resolution. He says that no two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain will ever fight a war against each other. He does backtrack a little and suggest that these countries will have to think three times before going to war. It’s a nice theory, but how does he back it up? If Friedman is going to influence world leaders on going to war, he has to stop with the tongue-in-cheek sayings and provide some real facts. Imagination In his conclusion, Friedman presents 11/9 (Berlin Wall Falls) and 9/11 as symbols of two contending sorts of imagination. He tells America that it must become a “dream factory,” where our imagination is key to progress. He tells us what we should be telling our children by telling us what he has told his.He uses the example of having lunch with his daughter and her friends. One friend has a boyfriend, Eric, join them. Eric was getting a PhD from Yale in biomedical engineering, with an expertise in nanotechnology. Friedman says, “Eric is precisely the sort of young person we want the American education system to keep churning out.” It turns out that Eric’s father is a medical doctor and a science professor at Columbia. If every kid had Eric’s background and advantages, they too could be at Yale getting their PhDs. If you don’t have a wealthy parent or a degree from Yale, then Friedman tells you to use your imagination. No Issue Left Behind Friedman’s focus on the labor market is about the jobs that are growing in India and China, but he ignores consumerism, national and household debt, energy and fixed investments markets, raw materials, and other resource constraints. Friedman’s avoidance of these issues is dangerous. Without a full understanding of the role they play in globalization, we can’t have a meaningful stake in determining our future. - Page 8 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Some of the other issues driving globalization that Friedman fails to address are the International Trade Organization’s policies, the deregulated transnational corporations, debt and the finalization of America, the privatization of common areas and the decline of America’s middle class. All will greatly determine the success or failure of globalization. Of most importance is the fact that Friedman’s utopia doesn’t acknowledge that his version of a new flat world is changing the gap between the rich and everyone else into an unbridgeable chasm. It’s flattening what’s left of America’s middle class, which is the foundation for our democracy. The time has come for an American competitive strategy and policy that correlates to the realities, good and bad, of 21st century globalization, not a utopian one-sided view from someone who is neither a business writer nor an economist. A NOTE FROM THE PUBLISHER: Aronica and Ramdoo's book is being used in an increasing number of college courses as an antidote to Friedman's The World Is Flat, and the book's Web site provides a growing number of references, articles and videocasts at: www.mkpress.com/flat Capitol Reader will also soon summarize Meghan-Kiffer Press' companion book, Extreme Competition: Innovation and the Great 21st Century Business Reformation, which provides insights and strategies for competing in an era of total global competition: www.mkpress.com/extreme -Buy A Copy of The World Is Flat? -Click here for more political books from . Meghan-Kiffer Press - Page 9 From the book The World Is Flat? by Ronald Aronica and Mtetwa Ramdoo and published by Meghan-Kiffer Press. Copyright © 2006. Summarized by arrangement with Meghan-Kiffer Press. Summary published by CapitolReader.com. Copyright © 2007, Capitol Reader and Shamrock New Media, Inc. No part of this summary may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior notice and consent from CapitolReader.com and Shamrock New Media, Inc. The respective copyrights of authors and publishers are acknowledged. "Political Book Summaries" is a registered trademark of Shamrock New Media, Inc. The material provided is for general informational purposes only. Forbes.com - Magazine ArticlePage 1of 2 The Future ou Can't Predict Who Will Change The World Y Nassim Nicholas Taleb10.15.07, 6:00 PM ET Before the discovery of Australia, Europeans thought that all swans were white, and it would have been considered completely unreasonable to imagine swans of any other color. The first sighting of a black swan in Australia, where black swans are, in fact, rather common, shattered that notion. The moral of this story is that there are exceptions out there, hidden away from our eyes and imagination, waiting to be discovered by complete accident. What I call a "Black Swan" is an exceptional unpredictable event that, unlike the bird, carries a huge impact. It's impossible to predict who will change the world, because major changes are Black Swans, the result of accidents and luck. But we do know who society's winners will be: those who are prepared to face Black Swans, to be exposed to them, to recognize them when they show up and to rigorously exploit them. Things, it turns out, are all too often discovered by accident--but we don't see that when we look at history in our rear-view mirrors. The technologies that run the world today (like the Internet, the computer and the laser) are not used in the way intended by those who invented them. Even academics are starting to realize that a considerable component of medical discovery comes from the fringes, where people find what they are not exactly looking for. It is not just that hypertension drugs led to Viagra or that angiogenesis drugs led to the treatment of macular degeneration, but that even discoveries we claim come from research are themselves highly accidental. They are the result of undirected tinkering narrated after the fact, when it is dressed up as controlled research. The high rate of failure in scientific research should be sufficient to convince us of the lack of effectiveness in its design. If the success rate of directed research is very low, though, it is true that the more we search, the more likely we are to find things "by accident," outside the original plan. Only a disproportionately minute number of discoveries traditionally came from directed academic research. What academia seems more masterful at is public relations and fund-raising. This is good news--for some. Ignore what you were told by your college economics professor and consider the following puzzle. Whenever you hear a snotty European presenting his stereotypes about Americans, he will often describe them as "unintellectual," "uneducated" and "poor in math," because, unlike European schooling, American education is not based on equation drills and memorization. Yet the person making these statements will likely be addicted to his iPod, wearing a T-shirt and blue jeans and using Microsoft Word to jot down his "cultural" statements on his Intel-based PC, with some Google searches on the Internet here and there interrupting his composition. If old enough, he might also be using Viagra. America's primary export, it appears, is trial and error, and the innovative knowledge attained in such a way. Trial and error has error in it; and most top-down traditional rational and academic environments do not like the fallibility of "error" and the embarrassment of not quite knowing where they're going. The U.S. fosters entrepreneurs and creators, not exam-takers, bureaucrats or, worse, deluded economists. So the perceived weakness of the American pupil in conventional studies is where his or her very strength may lie. The American system of trial and error produces doers: Black Swan-hunting, dream-chasing entrepreneurs, with a tolerance for a certain class of risk-taking and for making plenty of small errors on the road to success or knowledge. This environment also attracts aggressive tinkering foreigners like this author. Globalization allowed the U.S. to specialize in the creative aspect of things, the risk-taking production of concepts and ideas--that is, the scalable part of production, in which more income can be generated from the same fixed assets through innovation. By exporting jobs, the U.S. has outsourced the less scalable and more linear components of production, assigning them to the citizens of more mathematical and culturally rigid states, who are happy to be paid by the hour to work on other people's ideas. Let us go one step further. It is high time to recognize that we humans are far better at doing than understanding, and better at tinkering than inventing. But we don't know it. We truly live under the illusion of order, believing that planning and forecasting are possible. We are scared of the random, yet we live from its fruits. We are so scared of the random that we create disciplines that try to make sense of the past--but we ultimately fail to understand it, just as we fail to see the future. The current discourse in economics, for example, is antiquated. American undirected free-enterprise works because it aggressively allows us to capture the randomness of the environment--the cheap Black Swans. This works not just because of competition, and even less because of material incentives. Neither the followers of Adam Smith nor those of Karl Marx seem to be conscious of the prevalence and effect of wild randomness. They are too bathed in enlightenment-style cause-and-effect, and cannot accept that skills and payoffs may have nothing to do with one another. Nor can they swallow the argument that it is not necessarily the better technology that wins, but rather, the luckiest one. And, sadly, even those who accept this fundamental uncertainty often fail to see that it is a good thing. Random tinkering is the path to success. And fortunately, we are increasingly learning to practice it without knowing it--thanks to overconfident entrepreneurs, naive investors, greedy investment bankers, confused scientists and aggressive venture capitalists brought together by the free-market system. http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/nicholas-taleb-prediction-tech-future07-cx_nt_1015change_print.html7/17/2009 Forbes.com - Magazine ArticlePage 2of 2 We need more tinkering: uninhibited, aggressive, proud tinkering. We need to make our own luck. We can be scared and worried about the future, or we can look at it as a collection of happy surprises that lie outside the path of our imagination. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an applied statistician and derivatives trader-turned-philosopher, and author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/nicholas-taleb-prediction-tech-future07-cx_nt_1015change_print.html7/17/2009