2025-033 Housing Data Presentation to the Planning and Zoning Commission February 21,2025 Report No. 2025-033
INFORMAL STAFF REPORT
TO MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT:
Housing Data Presentation to the Planning and Zoning Commission
BACKGROUND:
On Wednesday, December 11, 2024, the Planning and Zoning Commission received a work
session report regarding residential development and rental housing to provide a more complete
view of the City's housing supply and development.
An updated presentation was presented to the Commission at the February 12, 2025, meeting to
address an error in the data for multifamily unit counts in the December 11, 2024, presentation.
DISCUSSION:
Following the December 11, 2024, presentation to the Planning and Zoning Commission, staff
received a question from a Commissioner regarding the unit counts for multifamily dwellings from
2020 to 2023. Staff reviewed their methodology for calculating housing units in the City and
determined that the single-family residential and duplex numbers were correct. However, the
multifamily unit count was not. A new methodology for multifamily housing units using Costar, a
commercial real estate data source,produced a more accurate number that reflected a 96%increase
in multifamily units, compared to the 303% increase presented at the December 11 meeting.
The slides from the February 12,2025 Planning and Zoning Commission Presentation are attached
for review. The changes noted above are further explained on Slide 3 of the presentation, and the
data that changed between December and February is noted in red font throughout the presentation.
The following context is helpful when reviewing the housing and population data in the
presentation:
• The City's permitting and project data is fluid and changes weekly as permits and
certificates of occupancy are issued and project applications are submitted, approved,
and/or withdrawn. Therefore, while the data presented offers a good estimate of current
development conditions, it is subject to change at any time.
• The Denton 2040 Comprehensive Plan's population and housing projections and staff s
analysis in the work session are based on population data from the American Community
Survey (ACS). The ACS is an ongoing survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that
is updated annually with estimates related to demographics, cultural composition,housing,
household composition, education, and employment data and its usage is a best practice
when conducting work based in demography.
To view the work session,please visit Public Meetings &Agendas I Denton, TX.
February 21,2025 Report No. 2025-033
ATTACHMENTS:
1. February 12, 2025, Housing Data P&Z Presentation
STAFF CONTACT:
Hayley Zagurski, AICP
Assistance Planning Director
Hayley.Zagurski@cityofdenton.com
(940) 349-7785
REQUESTOR: Planning and Zoning Commission
STAFF TIME TO COMPLETE REPORT: 20 hours
PARTICIPATING DEPARTMENTS: Development Services (Planning and Business Services
Divisions)
AP
CI 'Y HkL� PZ2
t -
� r CITY 'OF DEN e, -
Mu Itifa nI i ly & Singlem
�7
Housing Data
Hayley Zagurski
Original Planning &Zoning Commission Presentation Date: December 11, 20247.
F L- *(Agenda ID: PZ24-234) �. ! ;,
I J.
4 I I I
Updated: February 12, 2025
elip-
Agenda
1 . What's Changed
2. City population growth
3 . Housing composition
4. Multifamily projects and demand
5. Single-family projects and demand
6. Comparison of current growth and demand
7. Conclusions
, 77� File ID: PZ25-053
DENTON
j
What's Changed
• The 2020 Multifamily unit count used as the basis for the growth and demand calculations in the December
presentation was found to be incorrect (4,550 vs. 17,449 units).
• The unit count originally cited was based on pairing the City's permit data with DCAD's certified totals.
• Apartment complexes that didn't match between the data sets were inadvertently removed from the count, resulting in a
much lower number than should have been reported.
• Since discovering the error, staff has identified a different source to obtain annual multifamily unit counts from (Costar, a
commercial real estate data source) and has rerun the calculations.
• No other data presented was affected by this error. This change affects only the following slides:
• Slides 11 and 12 — Annual multifamily unit count and percent change
• Slide 15 — 2020 multifamily unit total and percent change
• Slide 21 — Percent of needs
DENTON
1
Request
• August 28, 2024: P&Z request for written update regarding the
number of multifamily projects currently in development.
• September 17, 2024: In preparation for the City Council
meeting, Council members inquired about:
• How close the City is to the anticipated multifamily need called for by
2040 Plan
• How the City's current rental housing estimates are expected to change
in the future
,
DENTON
Notes on the data . . .
• City permit and project data is fluid and can change weekly as projects are
submitted, permits are issued and finalized, etc.
• Population and housing estimates can vary by source — typically rely on Denton
County Appraisal District (DCAD) & American Community Survey (US Census
ACS).
• Comprehensive Plan relies on US Census ACS
• Land uses are not tracked the same way by different sources
• Example:
• DDC defines multifamily as 5 or more units
• Permit data considers everything 3 units of more as multifamily (same with DCAD & US Census ACS)
,
DENTON
City Population Growth
File ID: PZ25-053
DENTON
Denton Plan 2040 Growth and Demand
Table 1.2 Population and Housing Growth Comp Plan projections assume a 3.19%
Population Housing Growth annual growth rate.
2020 Population(1) 139,869
US Census ACS Data
2020 Household Size(2) 2.41
2020 Total Housing Units(3) 58,085 • 2023 Population estimate: 158,361
2040 Population Projection(4) (ED • 18,492 person increase (13.2%)
2020- 2040 Population Change(5) 89,323 • Annual growth rate since 2020: 4.41%
2040 Housinq Demand(6) 37,094 • Projected 2040 Population at 4.4%
Total Projected 2040 Housing Units(7) 95,179 growth: 331,369
Source:(1)2020 US Census,(2)2020 Population/2020 Total Housing Units, (3)2020 US Census - Total Housing Units, (4)2021 73% change in anticipated 2040
City of Denton estimate, (5)2040 Population Projection -2020 Population, (6)2020-2040 Population Change/Household Size, population compared to Comp Plan
(7)2040 Housing Demand+2019 Housing Units.
estimate
of
DENTON
Denton Plan 2040 Growth and Demand
Table 1.3 Residential Demand by Type
Existing Existing Acres Per 2040
2020 If we assume continued growth at the
Units 2019 Residential '4' Units(6) Area (Ac)
current 4.4% rate, these projected needs
would increase:
1 Unit Detached
(Residential 31,017 53.4% 15,204 2.04 0.49 19,808 12,137
Single-Family) Single Family (detached): 34,278
1 Unit Attached,
2-4 Units,Other 9,468 16.3% 1,667 5.68 0.18 6,046 1,331
(Residential Townhome — Fourplex: 10,463
Other)
44y:l`J�Units(R M u ltifamily
(Residential Multi- 17,600 30.3°� 1,152 15.28 0.07 (3 920
Family)
Total 58,085 - 18,023 - - 37,094 14,387
Source:(1)2020 Total Housing units -2079 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates, (2)2079 American Community
Survey 1 Year Estimates,(3)City of Denton GIS,(4)2020 Units/Existing Dev. Residential Acres,(5)2040 Population Projection -
2020 Population, (6)2020 -2040 Population Change/Household Size,(7)Acres Per Unit x New Units+25% of Land Area for
Roads and Infrastructure.
env
of - r
DENTON
Growth of Denton "s Colleges/ Universities
4-Year Growth
. . , I, Rate
UNT 39,330 40,796 42,372 44,532 46,940 19%
TWU 13,402 13,800 13,667 12,790 12,679 -5%
NCTC
(Denton) 461.00 590 440 458 626 36%
Total 53,193 54,655 56,479 57,780 60,245 13%
CITY
OF 1
DENTON
Current Housing Composition
DENTON
2020 2021 2022 2023
Units Percentage Units Percentage Units Percentage Units Percentage
Housing Totals
Housing Type (Total) (of total stock) (Total) (of total stock) (Total) (of total stock) (Total) (of total stock)
lq� r 7 7,
• : I '. : • I •' 1,864 I �' 1,930 3.33%
Total 36,350 100% 38,537 100% 39,881 100%M 100.00%
• • -• housing data
Multifamily: Costar
.'- 77 '• File ID: PZ25-053 11
Housing Totals
Total Housing Units by Type 2020 - 2023
40000
35000 32298 34090
Increases 30943 31461
from • 30000
����ErPercenllff Units 25000 22022
19375 20703
S F R 10.17% 3147 20000 17449
15000
Duplex 125.20% 1073
10000
Multifamily 26.21% 4573 5000 1836 1864 1930
857
0
2020 2021 2022 2023
■ SFR 01 Duplex ■ Multifamily
Sources: DCAD Annual certified housing data and Costar
of - D �
DENTON
Overall Rental Data
2023 Comparison of College Towns
Annual Comparison for Denton Renter Occupied
.r Housing Units
Renter San Marcos (TX State) 71%
Occupied College Station (TX A&M) 65%
HousingNacogdoches (Stephen F Austin) 63%
2023 52% Stephenville (Tarleton State) 54%
2018 � 53% Bryan (TX A&M) 53%
2013 52% Denton (UNT & TWU) 52%
2010* o
54% Lubbock (TX Tech) 510
Source:American Community Survey Waco (Baylor) 49%
*2010 is the earliest this ACS dataset is published
env
ofFile ID: 1
DENTON
Multifamily Projects and Demands
DENTON
■ Multifamily Projects in Development
0 0�
FM 1173 ° ° � Multifamily in Development
Q university f i
Ray Ro
MultifamilyLa
h Tex s �r 288 G eee Project Status
35 O ° O Under Review—Initial Approvals
2020 Unit Total** 17,449 Obtained Total Units:6,358
v O 698J
m • Under Review—No Approvals
2023 Unit Total** 22,022 d L 377 O 377 Obtained Total Units: 1,835
(increase of 4,573 units -. Z o ° ° • Under Total Units:
its
Q ° Issued Total Units:4,062
from 2020) °
O
Unit Count
2n O O (� University Boundaries
Units in 41062 ° °
w oak st Dton E McKlnleyst o 0-140
construction*** a W Q
O 140-280
(19 projects as of 10/9/24) O
p o m Q 280-420 n
Units in review*** 8,037
" '° O 420-560 /�
O oo =
7 S O 560-700
(40 projects as of 10/9/24) °Q
'377;
Total Increase 16,672 units 5 o DENTON
Q O O Date:t01912024
since 2020 (96% Increase)
** Costar Data (slides 10-11) O 377
o
*** City Permit Data,includes s-
triplexes and fourplexes
Shady Shores
A ° Corinth
837 ft Z
O
O
11"ti
DENTON -
Multifamily Demand Projections
Estimated Units Needed by 2040
Based on 3% Growtn 'Based on 4.4% Growth
a • (ACS current rate)
Multifamily (5 or more units/lot) 11,239 19,449
1
Multifamily, Triplex, & Fourplex * 14,262 24,680
*Table 1.3 Residential Demand by Type
2021 Affordable Housing Needsand Market1ralue Analysisof
2102(l off,
Units
Rental
1 Unit Detached Estimated additional rental units the City can support
(Residential 31,017 53.4% 15,204 2.04 U49 19;808 12'1
Si miH) between 2025 and 2040 (any type of unit) 20�838
1 unaanaon
23 Uni[s,Other 9468 16.3% 1,667 5.66 0.18 6,046 1,331
(Ri;ential Estimated Rental Housing Demand 2021-2026 - moderate
5*Units growth 4,100
(Residential Multi- 17,600 30.3% 1,152 15.28 0.07 11,239 920
Family)
Total 58,085 - 18,023 - - 37,094 14,38, Estimated Rental Housing Demand 2021-2026 - high growth 4,479
Smrce:(1)2020 Total Housuig units-2019 American Coanmunity Survey 1 yearEshmahs,(2)2019 American Cornmunny
Survey 1 yearEstlm U ates,(3)City o/0entm CIS,(4)2020 nds/E.dsdng Dev.Residential Acres,(5)2040 Pow/anon Projection- To t a I 24,938 — 2 5,317
2020 Populaaun,(6)2020-2040 Population Changeilil—ahald Srze,(7)Acres Far Und x N-Unds 125%o/Land Area for
Roads and lol-aucture.
*Triplex and Fourplex units estimated based on assumption that equal percentages of each unit type (townhome, duplex,
triplex, and fourplex) make up the townhome—fourplex category in the Comp Plan
CITY
OF • 1
DENTON
Single-family Projects and Demands
DENTON
Single-Family Projects in Development
0
Williams Single Family Projects Map
Lake
Hartlee O Single Family Under Construction
Single-Family Units* in Development 1^ •509ft Field Total Units:7,041
0
2020 Unit Total** 31 800 o °° ° O Single Family In Development
** Krum M i I s ° tray Roberts Total Units:2,690
wets oto z 0 o c"
O alo 7e as �,� r_("1 Greenbelt Lake Unit Count
2023 Unit Total** 36,020 2 35 ° f��C3 ° 0-140
(increase of 4,220 �1 377 °
77 360 O 140-280
W Uni 377
units from 2020) 0r 3g0 o O 280-420
0 8g o
° Q 420-560
Units (lots) in 7,041 ° �
Denton E M,Kinn°YSt 0560 700
construction*** e °
o °
(62 projects as of 11/8/24) x I7 a> P.
o=. - 0700+
Units (lots) in 2,690 9-1m °0
0 0
P� O 00 z
review*** 0377 M University _
o Boundaries DENTON
-mk-.os
(19 projects as of 11/8/24) � Date:tvsrzoza
°0o
s
377 O O O
Total Increase 13,951 units ° oe� �B Little El
since 2020 (44% Increase) Shady Shores
0 837� 0 0 _ Corinth Lewisville
** DCAD Data(slides 10-11) 0 000 ° 0 0 O o O o Lake
*** City Wildhorse Golf
Permit Data,includes o° O o° °o
townhomes and duplexes Club of Robson ch °
Hidden Cove
❑ISH ____ _ ° FM 2181 Park
CITY
OF File ID: ' 1
DENTON
Single-Family Demand Projections
Estimated Units Needed by 2040
WBased on 3% Growth Based on 4.4% Growth
(Comp Plan) (ACS current rate)
Single-Family Detached 19,808 34,278
Single-Family Detached, Townhomes, &
Duplexes* 22,831 39,509
2021 Affordable Housing Needs and Market Value Analysis of City of Denton
Ownership
Estimated additional homes for ownership the City can support
between 2025 and 2040 45,523
Estimated Demand for Homeowner Units 2021-2026 - moderate
growth 3,661
Estimated Demand for Homeowner Units 2021-2026 - high growth 5,015
Total 49,184 — 50,538
*Townhome and Duplex units estimated based on assumption that equal percentages of each unit type (townhome, duplex,
triplex, and fourplex) make up the townhome—fourplex category in the Comp Plan
of11L •
DENTON
Comparison of Current Growth and Demands
77�--W-31- *- File ID: PZ25-053 20
DENTON
How are these demands being met?
Multifamily (includes triplex and fourplex)
New M-F units since •
Percent of need met so far at 3% growth (comp Plan) 117% (of 14,262 units)
Percent of need met so far at 4% growth (Acs current rate) 68% (of 24,680 units)
Percent of rental housing need met so far (2021 Housing Needs Assessment) 66% (of 25,317 units)
Single-Family (includes townhome and duplex)
New SF units since 0 : •
Percent of need met so far at 3% growth (comp Plan) 61% (of 22,831 units)
Percent of need met so far at 4% growth (Acs current rate) 41% (of 39,509 units)
Percent of demand for ownership units met so far (2021 Housing Needs
Assessment) 28% (of 50,538 units)
CITY
OF 1
DENTON
What cond usions ca n we d raw from th is?
• Denton is growing and the student population of the City's colleges is growing.
• The student population growth will continue to have an affect on the City's housing.
• The City's rental housing rate is comparable with other TX cities that have major
universities.
• Growth rate projections vary widely depending on source, and the reality is likely be
different from any of them.
• There is a demand for more housing, although the estimated amount needed by 2040
varies by source.
• Based on the Comp. Plan, the 2021 Housing Needs Assessment, and current development
project trends, the City is on track to meet or exceed the units needed.
• However, current rental rates and growth of university populations indicate we may struggle to
provide sufficient units for owner occupancy compared to rental.
DENTON
® Given the uncertainties, what can we do?
• Continue to be thoughtful in our consideration of housing development projects to ensure the
City is developing a diverse housing stock to meet the needs of current and future residents.
• When new MF zoning entitlements are requested, consider whether:
• the location is consistent with the adopted Denton 2040 plan; and
• the location is conducive to allowing additional housing in proximity to further neighborhood growth.
• Continue to monitor the City's growth trends and housing availability, especially in comparison
to the 2021 Housing Needs Assessment.
• Update Housing Needs Assessment and Comp Plan within next 5 years
• Incentivize and remove barriers to infill development to reduce impacts to the City's
environmental assets as we grow.
• Policy and code changes will be needed (Comp Plan, DDC, impact fees, economic tools)
• Encourage increased housing near the universities — increasing rental opportunities there can
make ownership opportunities available elsewhere.
DENTON
Questions?
CITY
OFFile ID: ' 1
DENTON