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2021-064 Sustainability Framework Advisory Committee RecommendationsDate: August 20, 2021 Report No. 2021-064 INFORMAL STAFF REPORT TO MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL SUBJECT: Sustainability Framework Advisory Committee Recommendations for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target Setting and Race to Zero challenge. BACKGROUND: The Sustainability Framework Advisory Committee (SFAC) is charged to advise the Denton City Council on the implementation of, and matters related to, the City’s Sustainability Framework. During the first two SFAC meetings, May and June 2021, staff provided background information regarding the Simply Sustainable Framework and the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Management program. At the July meeting the SFAC recommended that the City of Denton City Council adopt “science-based” targets for GHG emissions reduction, and that the City join the ICLEI 150/Cities Race to Zero challenge. The science-based target represents the City of Denton’s “fair share of global reductions to avoid a 1.5-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures. The quantitative outcome is a 46.3 % decrease in emissions from 2018 to 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050. DISCUSSION: Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) trap heat in the atmosphere and are produced from natural and anthropogenic sources, which include Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Examples of anthropogenic (manmade) sources include fossil fuel combustion for energy and transportation, landfill and other sources of decomposing organic matter, and agriculture and industrial processes. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions have direct and indirect benefits such as climate change mitigation, improved public health, and resource conservation. A baseline GHG inventory for the City of Denton for the year 2006 was assembled in 2011. The 2006 inventory is used as a benchmark to track improvements in emission reduction for subsequent years. Since 2015, Sustainability staff has completed an annual greenhouse gas inventories update to improve data understanding and provide a basis for better informed, decision-making. The Sustainability Framework, the City’s comprehensive plan related to sustainability, lists the following goals related to Greenhouse Gas Management and Air Quality: • Set reduction targets for municipal and community greenhouse gas emissions, • Annually update Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Contribution Analysis, and Date: August 20, 2021 Report No. 2021-064 • Create Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Plan GHG Management Program Tools and 2019 Results Greenhouse Gas Inventory: The greenhouse gas inventory is an annual analysis that aims to calculate the “carbon footprint” of both municipal operations and the Denton community. Both analyses look at consumption-based data for items such as fuel, electricity, waste generation, and natural gas. All GHGs are converted into 100-year carbon equivalence and data is reported in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalence (MT CO2e). Based on the 2019 GHG inventory current community reductions are at approximately 33% compared to 2006 and 17.8% compared to 2018. The City is currently using the ICLEI ClearPath tool to manage it GHG Inventory. Contribution Analysis: The contribution analysis calculates the net change in two greenhouse gas inventories and identifies increases and decreases that contribute to the overall difference, including weather normalization to calculate the impact of temperature differences, population growth, consumption per capita, housing development, and behavior change. Notable increases between 2018 and 2019 include: growth in population, increased vehicle travel, and increased electricity use per household. Notable decreases include: the increased use of renewable energy, improved vehicle efficiency, and a slightly cooler summer. Greenhouse Gas Forecasting: The forecasting tool is used to calculate a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for future GHG emissions in Denton. The tool considers several factors expected to change in future years such as, electricity generation sources, population growth, residential development, and vehicle efficiency/electrification. It also assumes certain factors to remain constant such as residential behavior related to rates of consumption per capita. Science Based Targets The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is widely referenced as the source for reduction target setting to avoid a 1.5℃ increase in global temperatures by 2050 and avert many of the effects associated with that increase. The IPCC 5th assessment models indicate that, to avoid exceedance of 1.5℃ increase in global temperatures, the global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions will need to be reduced by 40-60% by 2030 and achieve net zero between 2045 and 2055 (based on the model’s interquartile range statistic). Governments at all levels have historically utilized these goals and incorporated them into their own planning efforts if they choose to align with the concept of avoiding a 1.5℃ global temperature increase. New methodologies released in late 2020 offer alternative methods for achieving this alignment, Science Based Target setting. Cities with GHG reduction targets to this point have chosen to enact their own short and long- term goals based on feasibility, scope of influence, or matching global IPCC recommendations. Date: August 20, 2021 Report No. 2021-064 These goals range in quantity and can be altered when achieved, or new technology becomes available. Timeline/ Next Steps July 23, 2021 – Sustainability Framework Advisory Committee recommendation August 2021 COE - Cancelled August 20, 2021 - ISR to City Council September 2021 – Work session, Resolution or Ordinance to Council to adopt SFAC recommendation. CONCLUSION: The Sustainability Framework Advisory Recommends 1. The adoption of a Science Based Target to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 46.3% between 2018 and 2030, and achieve net zero emissions by 2050 2. That the City of Denton sign on to the ICLEI 150 Challenge and Cities Race to Zero initiative Staff will provide council with next steps in the form of a work session, resolution, or ordinance in the coming months to seek direction on these recommendations. STAFF CONTACT: Katherine Barnett, Sustainability Manager REQUESTOR: Staff Report - Sustainability Framework Advisory Committee Recommendation