HomeMy WebLinkAbout2025-033 Housing Data Presentation to the Planning and Zoning CommissionFebruary 21, 2025 Report No. 2025-033
INFORMAL STAFF REPORT
TO MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT:
Housing Data Presentation to the Planning and Zoning Commission
BACKGROUND:
On Wednesday, December 11, 2024, the Planning and Zoning Commission received a work
session report regarding residential development and rental housing to provide a more complete
view of the City’s housing supply and development.
An updated presentation was presented to the Commission at the February 12, 2025, meeting to
address an error in the data for multifamily unit counts in the December 11, 2024, presentation.
DISCUSSION:
Following the December 11, 2024, presentation to the Planning and Zoning Commission, staff
received a question from a Commissioner regarding the unit counts for multifamily dwellings from
2020 to 2023. Staff reviewed their methodology for calculating housing units in the City and
determined that the single-family residential and duplex numbers were correct. However, the
multifamily unit count was not. A new methodology for multifamily housing units using Costar, a
commercial real estate data source, produced a more accurate number that reflected a 96% increase
in multifamily units, compared to the 303% increase presented at the December 11 meeting.
The slides from the February 12, 2025 Planning and Zoning Commission Presentation are attached
for review. The changes noted above are further explained on Slide 3 of the presentation, and the
data that changed between December and February is noted in red font throughout the presentation.
The following context is helpful when reviewing the housing and population data in the
presentation:
• The City’s permitting and project data is fluid and changes weekly as permits and
certificates of occupancy are issued and project applications are submitted, approved,
and/or withdrawn. Therefore, while the data presented offers a good estimate of current
development conditions, it is subject to change at any time.
• The Denton 2040 Comprehensive Plan’s population and housing projections and staff’s
analysis in the work session are based on population data from the American Community
Survey (ACS). The ACS is an ongoing survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that
is updated annually with estimates related to demographics, cultural composition, housing,
household composition, education, and employment data and its usage is a best practice
when conducting work based in demography.
To view the work session, please visit Public Meetings & Agendas | Denton, TX.
February 21, 2025 Report No. 2025-033
ATTACHMENTS:
1. February 12, 2025, Housing Data P&Z Presentation
STAFF CONTACT:
Hayley Zagurski, AICP
Assistance Planning Director
Hayley.Zagurski@cityofdenton.com
(940) 349-7785
REQUESTOR: Planning and Zoning Commission
STAFF TIME TO COMPLETE REPORT: 20 hours
PARTICIPATING DEPARTMENTS: Development Services (Planning and Business Services
Divisions)
PZ25-053 Multifamily & Single-Family Housing Data Hayley ZagurskiOriginal Planning & Zoning Commission Presentation Date: December 11, 2024(Agenda ID: PZ24-234)Updated: February 12, 2025File ID: PZ25-053
Agenda1. What’s Changed2. City population growth3. Housing composition4. Multifamily projects and demand5. Single-family projects and demand6. Comparison of current growth and demand7. ConclusionsFile ID: PZ25-0532
What’s Changed•The 2020 Multifamily unit count used as the basis for the growth and demand calculations in the December presentation was found to be incorrect (4,550 vs. 17,449 units).•The unit count originally cited was based on pairing the City’s permit data with DCAD’s certified totals. •Apartment complexes that didn’t match between the data sets were inadvertently removed from the count, resulting in a much lower number than should have been reported.•Since discovering the error, staff has identified a different source to obtain annual multifamily unit counts from (Costar, a commercial real estate data source) and has rerun the calculations. •No other data presented was affected by this error. This change affects only the following slides:•Slides 11 and 12 – Annual multifamily unit count and percent change•Slide 15 – 2020 multifamily unit total and percent change•Slide 21 – Percent of needsFile ID: PZ25-0533
Request•August 28, 2024: P&Z request for written update regarding the number of multifamily projects currently in development.•September 17, 2024: In preparation for the City Council meeting, Council members inquired about:•How close the City is to the anticipated multifamily need called for by 2040 Plan •How the City’s current rental housing estimates are expected to change in the futureFile ID: PZ25-0534
Notes on the data…•City permit and project data is fluid and can change weekly as projects are submitted, permits are issued and finalized, etc.•Population and housing estimates can vary by source – typically rely on Denton County Appraisal District (DCAD) & American Community Survey (US Census ACS).•Comprehensive Plan relies on US Census ACS•Land uses are not tracked the same way by different sources•Example:•DDC defines multifamily as 5 or more units•Permit data considers everything 3 units of more as multifamily (same with DCAD & US Census ACS)File ID: PZ25-0535
City Population GrowthFile ID: PZ25-0536
Denton Plan 2040 Growth and DemandFile ID: PZ25-053•Comp Plan projections assume a 3.19%annual growth rate.•US Census ACS Data:•2023 Population estimate: 158,361•18,492 person increase (13.2%)•Annual growth rate since 2020: 4.41%•Projected 2040 Population at 4.4% growth: 331,369•73% change in anticipated 2040 population compared to Comp Plan estimate7
Denton Plan 2040 Growth and DemandFile ID: PZ25-053If we assume continued growth at the current 4.4% rate, these projected needs would increase:Single Family (detached): 34,278Townhome – Fourplex: 10,463Multifamily:19,4498
Growth of Denton’s Colleges/UniversitiesFile ID: PZ25-0534-Year Growth Rate20232022202120202019School19%46,94044,53242,37240,79639,330UNT-5%12,67912,79013,66713,80013,402TWU36%626458 440 590461.00NCTC (Denton)13%60,24557,78056,47954,65553,193Total9
Current Housing CompositionFile ID: PZ25-05310
Housing TotalsFile ID: PZ25-053Sources:*SFR and Duplex: DCAD Annual certified housing data**Multifamily: Costar2023202220212020Percentage (of total stock)Units (Total)Percentage (of total stock)Units (Total)Percentage (of total stock)Units (Total)Percentage (of total stock)Units (Total)Housing Type58.73%34,09058.87%32,29859.73%31,46162.83%30,943SFR*3.33%1,9303.40%1,8643.49%1,8361.74%857Duplex*37.94%22,02237.73%20,70336.78%19,37535.43%17,449Multifamily**100.00%42,274100%39,881100%38,537100%36,350Total11
Housing TotalsFile ID: PZ25-053Increases from 2020 to 2023UnitsPercentType314710.17%SFR1073125.20%Duplex457326.21%MultifamilySources: DCAD Annual certified housing data and Costar309433146132298340908571836186419301744919375207032202205000100001500020000250003000035000400002020 2021 2022 2023Total Housing Units by Type 2020 - 2023SFRDuplexMultifamily12
Overall Rental DataRenter Occupied Housing UnitsCity (TX)71%San Marcos (TX State)65%College Station (TX A&M)63%Nacogdoches (Stephen F Austin)54%Stephenville (Tarleton State)53%Bryan (TX A&M)52%Denton (UNT & TWU)51%Lubbock (TX Tech)49%Waco (Baylor)File ID: PZ25-053Renter Occupied Housing UnitsYear52%202353%201852%201354%2010*Annual Comparison for DentonSource: American Community Survey*2010 is the earliest this ACS dataset is published2023 Comparison of College Towns13
Multifamily Projects and DemandsFile ID: PZ25-05314
Multifamily Projects in DevelopmentFile ID: PZ25-053Multifamily Units*in Development17,4492020 Unit Total**22,022
(increase of 4,573 units from 2020)2023 Unit Total**4,062Units in construction*** (19 projects as of 10/9/24)8,037Units in review*** (40 projects as of 10/9/24)16,672 units(96% Increase)Total Increase since 2020** Costar Data (slides 10-11)*** City Permit Data, includes triplexes and fourplexes15
Multifamily Demand ProjectionsFile ID: PZ25-053Based on 4.4% Growth (ACS current rate)Based on 3% Growth (Comp Plan)19,449 11,239Multifamily (5 or more units/lot)24,680 14,262 Multifamily, Triplex, & Fourplex *Estimated Units Needed by 20402021 Affordable Housing Needs and Market Value Analysis of CityRental Units 20,838 Estimated additional rental units the City can support between 2025 and 2040 (any type of unit)4,100Estimated Rental Housing Demand 2021-2026 - moderate growth4,479Estimated Rental Housing Demand 2021-2026 - high growth24,938 –25,317 Total*Triplex and Fourplex units estimated based on assumption that equal percentages of each unit type (townhome, duplex,
triplex, and fourplex) make up the townhome – fourplex category in the Comp Plan*16
Single-family Projects and DemandsFile ID: PZ25-05317
Single-Family Projects in DevelopmentFile ID: PZ25-053Single-Family Units*in Development31,800 2020 Unit Total**36,020
(increase of 4,220 units from 2020)2023 Unit Total**7,041Units (lots) in construction***(62 projects as of 11/8/24)2,690Units (lots) in review***(19 projects as of 11/8/24)13,951 units(44% Increase)Total Increase since 2020** DCAD Data (slides 10-11)*** City Permit Data, includes townhomes and duplexes18
Single-Family Demand ProjectionsFile ID: PZ25-0532021 Affordable Housing Needs and Market Value Analysis of City of Denton Ownership Units45,523Estimated additional homes for ownership the City can support between 2025 and 20403,661 Estimated Demand for Homeowner Units 2021-2026 - moderate growth5,015 Estimated Demand for Homeowner Units 2021-2026 - high growth49,184 –50,538 TotalBased on 4.4% Growth (ACS current rate)Based on 3% Growth (Comp Plan)34,27819,808Single-Family Detached39,50922,831Single-Family Detached, Townhomes, & Duplexes*Estimated Units Needed by 2040*Townhome and Duplex units estimated based on assumption that equal percentages of each unit type (townhome, duplex,
triplex, and fourplex) make up the townhome – fourplex category in the Comp Plan19
Comparison of Current Growth and DemandsFile ID: PZ25-05320
How are these demands being met?File ID: PZ25-05316,672New MF units since 2020117% (of 14,262 units)Percent of need met so far at 3% growth (Comp Plan)68% (of 24,680 units)Percent of need met so far at 4% growth (ACS current rate)66% (of 25,317 units)Percent of rental housing need met so far (2021 Housing Needs Assessment)Multifamily (includes triplex and fourplex)Single-Family (includes townhome and duplex)13,951New SF units since 202061% (of 22,831 units)Percent of need met so far at 3% growth (Comp Plan)41% (of 39,509 units)Percent of need met so far at 4% growth (ACS current rate)28% (of 50,538 units)Percent of demand for ownership units met so far (2021 Housing Needs Assessment)21
What conclusions can we draw from this?•Denton is growing and the student population of the City’s colleges is growing.•The student population growth will continue to have an affect on the City’s housing.•The City’s rental housing rate is comparable with other TX cities that have major universities.•Growth rate projections vary widely depending on source, and the reality is likely be different from any of them.•There is a demand for more housing, although the estimated amount needed by 2040 varies by source.•Based on the Comp. Plan, the 2021 Housing Needs Assessment, and current development project trends, the City is on track to meet or exceed the units needed. •However, current rental rates and growth of university po pulations indicate we may struggle to
provide sufficient units for owner occupancy compared to rental.File ID: PZ25-05322
Given the uncertainties, what can we do? •Continue to be thoughtful in our consideration of housing develo pment projects to ensure the
City is developing a diverse housing stock to meet the needs of current and future residents. •When new MF zoning entitlements are requested, consider whether:•the location is consistent with the adopted Denton 2040 plan; and•the location is conducive to allowing additional housing in proximity to further neighborhood growth.•Continue to monitor the City’s growth trends and housing avail ability, especially in comparison
to the 2021 Housing Needs Assessment. •Update Housing Needs Assessment and Comp Plan within next 5 years•Incentivize and remove barriers to infill development to reduce impacts to the City’s
environmental assets as we grow.•Policy and code changes will be needed (Comp Plan, DDC, impact fees, economic tools)•Encourage increased housing near the universities – increasing r ental opportunities there can
make ownership opportunities available elsewhere.File ID: PZ25-05323
Questions?File ID: PZ25-05324