HomeMy WebLinkAbout2026-010 Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis November 21, 2025 Report No. 2026-010
INFORMAL STAFF REPORT
TO MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT:
Craver Ranch Planned Development Fiscal Impact Analysis.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
On October 21, Staff and the Developer presented information on the Craver Ranch Planned
Development in a work session. The fiscal impact analysis, which was preliminarily discussed in
that meeting, has been finalized and detailed in this report. This fiscal impact analysis estimates
the net effect of the Craver Ranch project on the City's General Fund, General Debt Service Fund,
select Special Revenue Funds, and other key service areas by comparing projected revenues to
anticipated service costs. Planning and Zoning Commission held public hearings on November 19,
2025 and recommended approval of a comprehensive plan amendment,mobility plan amendment,
and zoning change. The project will come before City Council for consideration of the
comprehensive plan and mobility plan amendments, zoning change and related agreements on
December 2, 2025.
BACKGROUND:
Craver Ranch is an approximately 2,870-acre property in North Denton situated between FM 2153
to the east and north, FM 2164 to the west, and Shepard Road and Gribble Springs Road to the
south. The majority of the property was annexed into the City in 2008 and 2009 and has remained
undeveloped since that time. Following annexation, the placeholder zoning designation of Rural
Residential (RD-5X) was applied under the City's 2002 Denton Development Code (DDC), and
this transitioned to Rural Residential(RR)zoning with the adoption of the 2019 DDC. Old Prosper
Partners Acquisitions, LLC, intended to develop 2,500-acres of the overall site with the intended
mixture of uses, which includes single-family dwellings, multi-family dwellings, townhomes,
commercial/retail uses, school sites, and a variety of open spaces.
The City received notice of intent to introduce legislation for the creation of the Craver Ranch
Municipal Management District (MMD) No. 1 (the "District") on February 6, 2025, and City
Council approved a resolution in support of the creation on March 4, 2025. The MMD was
approved through a special act by the 89th Legislature of the State of Texas. Part of the requirement
of the City Council resolution was that the Developer had to negotiate and enter into a development
agreement with the City for the property. Staff and the Developer have been working through
studies and negotiations regarding the development agreements since that time and a fiscal impact
analysis was a component of completing the agreements similar to the process taken for Hunter
and Cole Ranches.
City Staff engaged the consulting firm AECOM, Inc. to conduct a fiscal impact analysis assessing
the overall development impact on the City of Denton. This analysis focused specifically on direct
revenues and expenditures to the City, such as property and sales tax revenues and the cost of
November 21, 2025 Report No. 2026-010
providing municipal services. It is important to note that this type of analysis differs from a broader
economic development analysis, which typically evaluates the wider economic implications of a
project.An economic development analysis considers factors such as job creation, income growth,
business attraction, and the ripple effects of increased economic activity throughout the
community. The results of this assessment highlight areas where the project may generate fiscal
surpluses that support broader City priorities, as well as areas where service demand could outpace
revenues, leading to fiscal pressures over time.
This report aims to provide City leadership with a framework for understanding the fiscal
implications of the proposed development. By highlighting both opportunities and potential
funding gaps, the analysis positions the City to enhance long-term fiscal sustainability while
ensuring access to the benefits of growth for current and future residents.
DISCUSSION:
Introduction to Fiscal Impact Analysis
The process begins by identifying the growth scenario to be analyzed, in this case the proposed
Craver Ranch project. Next, the analysis establishes baseline demand factors, including
population,number of housing units,non-residential square footage, employment provided by the
developer, and others that allow future change to be measured.
Using these demand factors, the approach incorporates existing city financial data to establish
baseline levels of service, capturing both revenues collected and costs paid under present
conditions.With this foundation in place,the analysis defines assumptions regarding the allocation
of capital projects and maintenance responsibilities of the new development,clarifying which costs
could be expected to be borne by the City versus the developer or other partners. Finally, this
information is combined to generate a fiscal impact model which integrates data and assumptions
from the prior steps
Results
The fiscal impact analysis projects that the Craver Ranch development could result in an overall
net fiscal surplus of approximately $106.6 million over the 40-year analysis period. Table 14
summarizes cumulative revenues and expenditures by fund, highlighting where surpluses and
deficits are expected to occur.
November 21, 2025 Report No. 2026-010
Table 14. Summary of 40-Year Cumulative Fiscal Impacts
ImpactCumulative Cumulative Net Fiscal
Revenues % Expenditures %
GENERAL FUND $629,180 54% $615,100 58% $14,080
GENERAL DEBT SERVICE FUND $248,250 21% $103,320 10% $144,930
SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS
Street Improvement Fund $24,550 2% $82,040 8% ($57,490)
Roadway Impact Fee Fund $31,300 3% $26,190 2% $5,110
Water Impact Fees $92,860 8% $92,860 9% $0
Wastewater Impact Fees $ 138,040 12% $138,040 13% $0
TOTAL $ 1.164,180 100% S 1.057,550 100% $106,630
Note:Values presented in$1,000s_
Figure 1 displays estimated future year annual net fiscal results over the 40-year analysis period.
Points above the horizontal axis ($0 line) represent potential annual surpluses while those below
the line represent potential annual deficits. Surpluses in any one year are not carried over from one
year to the next.
N $10
g $8
$6
$4
$2
$0
($2)
($4)
($6)
($8)
Figure 1.Annual Net Fiscal Impacts-Craver Ranch
Figure 2 presents the estimated cumulative fiscal impacts of the Craver Ranch development over
the 40-year analysis period, disaggregated by total revenues, capital expenditures, and operating
expenditures. While Figure 1 illustrates annual surpluses and deficits, this cumulative view
highlights the long-term balance between ongoing revenues and expenditures. Notably, revenues
are sufficient to cover operating costs in nearly all years,indicating that day-to-day service delivery
has the potential to be fiscally sustainable. Substantial capital outlays required to support new
infrastructure—together with the debt service obligations incorporated into the analysis—are seen
as more likely to yield an overall deficit.
November 21, 2025 Report No. 2026-010
N $ 1,400
c
0
$ 1,200
$ 1,000
$ 800
$ 600
$400
$ 200
$0
®Operating Expenditures o Capital Expenditures Revenues
Figure 2. Cumulative Estimated Expenditures and Revenues - Craver Ranch
It is important to note that these results are based on a series of assumptions regarding development
timing, absorption rates, infrastructure costs, tax and fee structures, and other key fiscal
parameters. While these assumptions were developed using the best available information and in
consultation with City Staff, they represent reasonable estimates rather than precise forecasts.
This fiscal impact analysis also does not take into consideration some additional benefits being
provided to the city through the development, including:
• Approximately 360 acres of City Parkland Dedication
• 13.5 miles of trails
• Easement for Water transmission line
• Elevated water storage tank to be provided by the developer
• Offsite Wastewater improvements of$12.2M
• Financial contribution to Police/Fire of$2.5M
• Financial contribution to affordable housing of$3M
• Land contribution for 3 school sites, generating benefit to local community
• $402M in infrastructure to be financed by MMD and private developer funding and
dedicated to the City
CONCLUSION:
The results of this fiscal impact analysis provide an informed estimate of the fiscal implications
associated with the Craver Ranch development over 40 years, where the analysis indicates a net
surplus of $106 million during this period.The findings should be interpreted within the broader
context of development phasing, financing practices, and evolving fiscal conditions. These results
are intended to serve as a planning tool to help the City anticipate potential revenue and
November 21, 2025 Report No. 2026-010
expenditure trends, refine its capital funding strategies, and support informed decision-making as
the project advances from concept to implementation.
ATTACHMENTS:
1. City of Denton Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
STAFF CONTACT:
Charlie Rosendahl
Interim Director of Development Services
Charlie.Rosendahlkcityofdenton.com
(940) 349-8452
REQUESTOR: Staff Initiated
STAFF TIME TO COMPLETE REPORT: 4
PARTICIPATING DEPARTMENTS: Development Services
A=COM
City of Denton
Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
November 19, 2025
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Quality information
Prepared by Checked by Verified by Approved by
Nolan Villasmil Christina Biedny Chris Brewer Chris Brewer
Dillon Gillman Dillon Gilman
Christina Biedny
Revision History
Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position
Draft v1 11/04/2025
Final 11/13/2025
Final Rev 11/19/2025
2
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Prepared for: City of Denton, Texas
Prepared by:
AECOM
130 E Randolph St., Suite 2400
Chicago, IL 60601
3
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table of Contents
I. Project Background ........................................................................................... 5
II. Introduction to Fiscal Impact Analysis............................................................. 6
Key Assumptions for this Analysis ................................................................................................................7
III. Methodology..................................................................................................... 10
DemandUnits ............................................................................................................................................. 10
Revenues.................................................................................................................................................... 13
Expenditures ...............................................................................................................................................22
IV. Results .............................................................................................................. 25
Tables
Table 1. Developer Program for Craver Ranch and Related Derived Assumptions.....................................8
Table 2. Demand Units Used in Revenue and Expenditure Multiplier Calculations ................................... 10
Table 3. Trip Generation Data for Residential and Nonresidential Land Uses ........................................... 12
Table 4. Residential Trip Adjustment Factor................................................................................................ 13
Table 5. General Fund Revenues—Calculation Approaches by Line Item ................................................ 14
Table 6. General Debt Service Fund Revenues—Calculation Approaches by Line Item........................... 17
Table 7. FY2024-25 Adopted Property Tax Rates....................................................................................... 17
Table 8. Key Sales Tax Revenue Assumptions........................................................................................... 19
Table 9. Special Revenue Fund Revenues- Calculation Approaches by Line Terns.................................20
Table 10. Roadway Impact Fee Revenue Multipliers..................................................................................21
Table 11. Water and Wastewater Impact Fee Revenue Multipliers ............................................................21
Table 12. Craver Ranch Capital Expenditure Inventory..............................................................................22
Table 13. General Fund, General Debt Service Fund, and Special Revenue Fund Operating Expenditures
—Calculation Approaches by Line Item.......................................................................................................24
Table 14. Summary of 40-Year Cumulative Fiscal Impacts........................................................................25
Figures
Figure 1.Annual Net Fiscal Impacts - Craver Ranch..................................................................................25
Figure 2. Cumulative Estimated Expenditures and Revenues - Craver Ranch..........................................26
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
L Project Background
The City of Denton ("the City") is evaluating the potential fiscal impacts of Craver Ranch ("the
project"), a proposed development plan put forward by KFM Engineering and Design ("the
Developer"), which encompasses approximately 2,500 gross acres. The plan includes a mix of
residential neighborhoods and commercial spaces, intended to accommodate population
growth, stimulate local economic activity, and expand the City's long-term tax base. The City
commissioned this analysis to understand how new development could affect municipal
revenues and expenditures, and to provide insights that will inform ongoing negotiations with the
Developer.
This Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) estimates the net effect of the Craver Ranch project on the
City's General Fund, General Debt Service Fund, select Special Revenue Funds, and other key
service areas by comparing projected revenues to anticipated service costs (such as police, fire,
public works, parks, and libraries). Residential and commercial components are evaluated
separately to capture differences in their revenue and service demand profiles. The analysis
does not account for all developer-provided funding or financing contributions at this stage, but it
establishes a baseline against which potential concessions or contributions can be measured.
The results of this assessment highlight areas where the project may generate fiscal surpluses
that support broader City priorities, as well as areas where service demand could outpace
revenues, leading to fiscal pressures over time. These findings are particularly valuable in
identifying negotiation points, such as infrastructure cost-sharing, land dedication for public
amenities, or commitments to phased development that align with the City's service delivery
capacity.
Ultimately, this report aims to provide City leadership with a framework for understanding the
fiscal implications of the proposed expansion and for shaping negotiations with the Developer.
By highlighting both opportunities and potential funding gaps, the analysis positions the City to
secure concessions that enhance long-term fiscal sustainability while ensuring access to the
benefits of growth for current and future residents.
The sections of this report introduce Fiscal Impact Analysis, describe the methodology and key
assumptions, present the findings, and discuss their implications.
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
II. Introduction to Fiscal Impact
Analysis
Overview
A Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) is a structured approach used to estimate how proposed new real
estate development could affect a community's revenues and expenditures over time. By
comparing anticipated costs of providing public services and infrastructure against expected
revenues from new development, an FIA helps decision makers understand the fiscal
implications of growth and identifies potential areas for negotiation or policy action.
The process begins by identifying the growth scenario to be analyzed, in this case the proposed
Craver Ranch project. Next, the analysis establishes baseline (i.e., pre-development) demand
factors including population, number of housing units, non-residential square footage,
employment provided by the developer, and others that allow future change to be measured.
Using these demand factors, the approach incorporates existing city financial data to establish
baseline levels of service, capturing both revenues collected, and costs paid under present
conditions. With this foundation in place, the analysis defines assumptions regarding the
allocation of capital projects and maintenance responsibilities of the new development, clarifying
which costs could be expected to be borne by the City versus the developer or other partners.
Finally, this information is combined to generate a fiscal impact model which integrates data and
assumptions from the prior steps. The model estimates fiscal outcomes of the proposed growth
scenario, providing the city with forward-looking results to evaluate the balance between
revenues and expenditures and to inform planning, policy, and negotiation efforts.
This section provides an overview of revenue and cost estimation, and a brief introduction to
some of the key assumptions used in this analysis. Detailed assumptions and methodologies
used are described in subsequent sections.
Estimating Revenues and Expenditures
Estimating revenues is a critical component of FIA, as it establishes the foundation for
comparing anticipated revenues with projected service costs. For this analysis, major revenue
sources such as Property Tax, Sales Tax, and Impact Fee revenues are modeled using
customized approaches tailored to the way each revenue stream is generated and collected.
These methodologies, described in more detail in Section I Il, account for the unique structures
and policies that govern each source of funds.
All remaining revenues are estimated using a per-demand unit approach. Under this method,
each revenue line item is linked to a relevant demand unit—such as population, housing units,
non-residential square footage, or employment—ensuring that revenue projections scale
appropriately with growth. The assignment of demand units for each revenue category was
developed in close collaboration with City of Denton to reflect local fiscal realities and service
delivery practices.
The intention of this framework is to provide a consistent and transparent method for estimating
potential future revenues under the growth scenario, while allowing for flexibility where major
revenue sources require more detailed modeling.
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
On the expenditure side, our approach applies a per-demand unit approach for most service
categories, linking projected costs to the same measures used to estimate revenue. This
method ensures that service costs are also scaled in proportion to growth and remain consistent
with current levels of service.
It is important to note that though the per-demand unit (or average cost/revenue) approach is
regularly used for its simplicity and general applicability, several key assumptions are
highlighted:
1. This approach relies on the assumption of a linear relationship between each unit of
demand and the revenues or costs it generates. This implies that, over the long run,
current average operating costs and revenues per capita remain constant in the future.
In other words, the City is assumed to collect and expend the same fixed amount per
person now and in later years, without accounting for potential economies of scale.
While this assumption lends itself to a straightforward and transparent modeling
framework, it does not capture the possibility that certain services may become more
efficient—or less costly to provide—on a per-capita basis as the population grows.
2. This approach assumes that current levels of services will be maintained in the future,
even if they may not be adequate now. For example, while the City may wish to, or may
in the future achieve, an increased level of park space provided per capita beyond
today's existing conditions, this would not be captured in the analysis.
3. The analysis assumes that the distribution of revenues and expenditures across the
City's departments and services in the baseline period will remain constant in the
projection period. For example, the department that spends the largest amount in the
baseline period will continue to be the largest spender in the projection periods and
these allocations will not change.
Next, we outline the high-level assumptions that form the backbone of this FIA before turning to
detailed methodologies in Section III and results in Section IV.
Key Assumptions for this Analysis
Some of the key assumptions underlying this analysis are listed below. For details of specific
methodologies, see Section III.
Time Period —The Craver Ranch development program anticipates construction commencing
in 2028, with the first properties to be added to the tax roll in 2030.1 The development's
construction is assumed to conclude in 2045 (with properties constructed in that year added to
the tax roll in 2047).
To capture both early development and a forward-looking status quo once the development is
established, this FIA evaluates a conceptual future 40-year period from calendar year 2030
through year-end 2069.
Revenue and expenditure data used in the Craver Ranch FIA are based on the Annual Program
of Services (adopted budget) for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025 ("FY25 APOS").
Developer Program —Table 1 details the Craver Ranch program as provided by the Developer.
The developer program contained housing units and non-residential space in annual phases.
1 Completed properties will be assessed in January 2030 for taxes due in arrears for calendar year 2029.Subsequent residential
units will follow the same two-year construction assumption, being added to the tax roll in the second year.
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City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Additional assumptions such as development population and future jobs potential were derived
from this development information.
Table 1. Developer Program for Craver Ranch and Related Derived Assumptions
Developer Provided Assumptions
Construction Period 2028-2045
Development Completiona 2047
Existing Year 1 Year20 Year30 Year40
2025 2039 2049 2059 2069
Residential Lots 65,886 5,650 9,190 9,190 9,190
Residential Units
Single Family 36,089 4,000 7,091 7,091 7,091
Townhome 1,127 450 584 584 584
Multifamily 28,670 1,200 1,515 1,515 1,515
Total Added Residential 65,886 5,650 9,190 9,190 9,190
Units
growth from existing 8.6% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9
Derived AssumptionSb
Population 155,374 15,590 26,930 26,930 26,930
growth from existing 10.0% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3
Commercial Square Feet
(SF)
Retail 10,748,010 621,549 621,549 621,549 621,549
Office 4,503,801 466,161 466,161 466,161 466,161
Hotel 155,387 155,387 155,387 155,387
Total Added Commercial SF 15,251,811 1,243,097 1,243,097 1,243,097 1,243,097
growth from existing 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2
Employment(2024 data)
Retail 18,038 2,978 2,978 2,978 2,978
Office 18,138 2,196 2,196 2,196 2,196
Hotel 351 56 56 56 56
Total Added Jobs 36,527 5,230 5,230 5,230 5,230
growth from existing 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3
Source:Development Plan documents provided by City of Denton Staff(Developer Provided Assumptions);CoStar, Lightcast
(Existing Commercial SF and Employment);AECOM calculations(Projections only).
Notes:a Construction is estimated to finish in 2045 with the final properties added to the tax roll in 2047.
b Projections were estimated using customized approaches as detailed in upcoming sections.Baseline values are provided for
information only.
Relevant Funds -This FIA models revenues and expenditures for the following funds only:
• General Fund
• General Debt Service Fund
• Special Revenue Funds: Water, Wastewater, and Roadway Impact Fees, and the Street Improvement
Fund
Static Revenues and Expenditures -The analysis is static in that the FY24-25 multipliers are
applied to all years of the Craver Ranch development scenario. The FIA does not update
revenue and expenditure data beyond the FY24-25 baseline, and the results are provided in
2025 dollars.
Revenue Structure and Tax Rates - Revenues are projected under the assumption that FY24-
25 tax policy and/or rates do not change during the projection period.
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Inflation — Revenues and expenditures, both in the baseline period and any projected period,
are in constant 2025 dollars. This assumption avoids the difficulty of speculating about inflation
rates and how inflation might impact various cost and revenue categories differently. It also
avoids having to interpret results expressed in nominal dollars over an extended period.
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Ill. Methodology
As described in Section II, a per-demand unit (or average revenue/cost) approach is used to
generate revenue and expenditure multipliers in most cases.All multipliers are computed using
baseline data (FY24-25) and remain fixed at the values detailed below when assessing the
Craver Ranch development scenario. To estimate revenues and expenditures for the
development program, these demand units also need to be projected for each year of the
development's buildout.
Demand Units
Because demand units are integral to this multiplier-based methodology, this first subsection of
focuses on the methods and assumptions used to derive demand units in detail. While some
demand units are straightforward (e.g., number of housing units, which are provided by the
Developer), others require their own methodologies that warrant further discussion. Table 2
summarizes the various demand units that are used for both revenue and expenditure
calculations. Those that require a unique or more complex calculation, are described in
narrative following the table.
Table 2. Demand Units Used in Revenue and Expenditure Multiplier Calculations
Demand Unit Family Units* Commercial Space Breakout
Total Residential Units* Total Police Calls
Total Nonresidential Square Feet* Total Fire Calls
Population Vehicle Trips
Population and Jobs
Note:Asterisks(*)indicate demand units which were directly provided by the Developer.All others require specific methodologies.
Population
Population growth expectations associated with the Craver Ranch development are estimated
based on the number and type of housing units provided by the Developer, adjusted for an
assumed straight line annual pace of absorption over the development timeline. Unit counts are
categorized into single-family, multifamily, and townhome units. To estimate population, we
apply an assumption of 3.2 residents per single-family and townhome unit and 2.5 residents per
multifamily unit. These household size factors are applied to the units expected to be delivered
and occupied each year, ensuring that projected population growth reflects not only the total
buildout but also the timing of unit occupancy.
Residential absorption is assumed to occur over a three-year period, with 55% of units occupied
in the first year after unit completion, 85% occupied by the second year, and 95% occupied by
the third year. This equates to a long-term stabilized vacancy rate of 5%, consistent with current
market conditions.
Population and Jobs
For this analysis, total demand is expressed in terms of population and jobs, reflecting both
residential and commercial (non-residential) growth attributable to the Craver Ranch
development. Population is estimated using the housing absorption—based methodology
described above. To this, we add jobs estimated to be generated by the development's
commercial components. To estimate these jobs, AECOM compared 2024 employment and
occupied commercial real estate in the City of Denton to establish the typical amount of square
footage (SF) required per job, by space type. Taking the program provided by the Developer,
new job creation for each type of commercial space was calculated by dividing its SF by the
historical SF per job. These jobs were then summed to reach a total job estimate for the
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
development. Combining the population and jobs estimates produces a comprehensive
estimate of new residents and workers associated with the development.
Commercial Space Breakout
While the developer program provides only a total estimate of commercial square footage,
projecting fiscal impacts requires a framework for how this space could be distributed across
different commercial uses over the future forecast period. Distinguishing between retail, office,
and other commercial categories is important because each use generates revenues in different
ways—for example, retail activity directly contributes to sales tax collections, while office space
primarily influences employment-based revenues and service demands.
AECOM relied on historical commercial real estate development and current inventory data by
space type from CoStar and assumed that commercial space within Craver Ranch will be
restricted to retail, hotel, and office space. The distribution of space within Craver Ranch was
then determined by estimating retail demand based on anticipated population growth, identifying
sites suitable for hotel development and typical hotel size, and allocating the remaining
commercial area to office use.
Police and Fire Calls
Rather than assuming police or fire service calls increase linearly with population growth, this
approach adjusts for the City's demonstrated ability to handle higher call volumes without
proportional increases in staff. The resulting "efficiency-adjusted" methodology yields more
realistic estimates of future police and fire service calls while remaining consistent with the
observed historical performance of both departments.
The methodology used to estimate police and fire calls can be summarized in three steps
resulting in an efficiency-adjusted per-capita measure of calls for service:
1. Establish baseline service intensity
Data from the FY25 APOS was used to calculate the number of police and fire calls per
resident ("calls per capita"). This provides a snapshot of how intensively existing
residents use emergency services.
Baseline Calls for Service 135,892 22,662
Baseline Population 155,374 155,374
Baseline Calls per Capita 0.87 0.15
Notes: Baseline Calls per Capita rounded for display purposes only.
2. Assess historical data and departmental efficiency
Trends from 2014-2024 were examined to understand how population, calls for service,
and staffing levels (FTEs) in each department have evolved. While population grew
modestly between 2014 and 2024 (2.7% CAGR), both police and fire calls rose
substantially faster—indicating increasing service demand per resident.At the same
time, staffing grew at a much slower pace than calls.
Calls • • FTE Calls FTE
Compound Annual Growth (2014-2024) 5.0% 2.6% 6.4% 3.4%
Relative to Population2 1.85x faster 0.97x as fast 2.39x faster 1.28x faster
FTE to Calls 0.52x as fast 0.54x as fast
These values represent population-based elasticities.Values greater than 1.0 indicate calls(FTE)have grown faster than
population while values less than 1.0 indicate less than linear growth.
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City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
3. Apply an efficiency factor to new calls for service
The ratio of FTE growth to call growth—roughly 0.5 for both Police and Fire—can be
interpreted as an "efficiency factor". This factor reflects the City's demonstrated ability to
meet growing service demand without proportional increases in staff or spending. The
baseline "calls per capita" ratio from Step 1 is therefore multiplied by this Efficiency
Factor to create an efficiency-adjusted calls per capita ratio, representing the expected
level of future service demand given continued operational efficiency.
Police Fire
Baseline Calls per Capita 0.87 0.15
Efficiency Factor 0.52 0.54
Adjusted Calls per Capita 0.46 0.08
Note:Values rounded to the nearest hundredth for display purposes only.
Vehicle Trips
Vehicle trips are used as a demand unit to capture transportation-related impacts associated
with new development. Estimating trips requires consideration of both residential and non-
residential travel activity in and around the City.
Vehicle trip generation for the Craver Ranch development was estimated using standard trip
rates published in the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual, 11th
Edition (Table 3), adjusted to reflect local travel behavior in the City of Denton. For residential
land uses, ITE's average weekday daily trip-end rates were adjusted by 50 percent to represent
complete, round-trip vehicle trips.'An additional 13 percent adjustment was then applied to
account for Denton residents who commute to workplaces outside of the city, as identified
through the U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap application and the National Household Travel
Survey.'Together, these adjustments produce a total factor of 63 percent, which is applied to
the number of housing units by type to estimate daily residential vehicle trips (Table 4). This
approach ensures that all trip purposes—both work and non-work—are represented, while also
correcting for the share of external commuting activity specific to Denton.
Non-residential trips were estimated separately using ITE trip rates by land use type, with
simplified trip-end adjustments to reflect typical trip-making behavior. A 50 percent adjustment
was applied to office and lodging (hotel) land uses, consistent with standard practice for
employment-related travel, while a 30 percent adjustment was applied to retail uses to account
for the higher share of pass-by trips generated along arterial and collector roadways.
Table 3. Trip Generation Data for Residential and Nonresidential Land Uses
WeekdayWeekday
Land Use Demand Trip Ends Trip Ends per Demand Per Trip Adjustment
Type Unit per Demand per Unit Employee Factor
Unit Employee
Single Family
Detached 1 unit 9.43
Housing
Single Family
Attached 1 unit 7.20
Housing
The ITE trip end rates include both departures from and arrivals back to the home,so without this adjustment,each full trip would
be recorded twice. For example,the ITS rate of 9.43 daily trip ends for single-family homes reflects both departures and returns,
meaning it represents roughly 4.7 round trips to and from the home each day.
°This 13 percent commuting adjustment factor reflects the share of additional outbound trips made by Denton residents who work
outside the city.It is derived by multiplying three underlying proportions:(1)73%of Denton residents commute to jobs outside the
city(U.S.Census Bureau,On the Map,2022),(2)36%of all trips leaving home are trips from home to work(home-based work trips)
(National Household Travel Survey,2022),and(3)50%of all trip ends are outbound(to avoid double counting outbound and
inbound legs).Combined,these yield an adjustment factor of approximately 13%(0.73 x 0.36 x 0.50).
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City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Weekday Weekday
Employees
Land Use Demand Trip Ends Trip Ends per Demand Per Trip Adjustment
Type Unit per Demand per Unit Employee Factor
Unit Employee
Multifamily 1 unit 6.74
Residential*
Retail 1,000 SF 37.01 17.42 2.12 471 33%
Office 1,000 SF 10.84 3.33 3.26 307 50%
Lodging Room 7.99 14.34 0.56 50%
Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers, Trip Generation Manual, 11th Edition
*Multifamily refers to low-rise multifamily housing, ITE Land Use Code 220.
**Retail refers to"Shopping Center(150K sq ft)", ITE Land Use Code 820.
Table 4. Residential Trip Adjustment Factor
(A)Workers Living in Denton 73,033
(B)Residents Working in Denton 19,664
(C)Residents Working outside of Denton (A)-(B) 53,369
(D)%Workers in Denton Working outside of Denton (C)/(A) 73%
(E)Work Trips as%of Outbound Trips 36%
(F)Complete vehicle trips 50%
(G)Resident Commuter Adjustment(D)x(E)x(F) 13%
(H)Complete vehicle trips by non-commuters 50%
Total Residential Trip Adjustment(G)+(H) 63%
Sources: U.S.Census Bureau OnTheMap,2022; U.S.DOT National Household Travel Survey,2022
It is important to note that these estimates represent average daily vehicle trips and are
intended for use in fiscal and infrastructure planning at a conceptual level. They do not account
for peak-hour variations, turning movements, or intersection-level operations, which would
typically be addressed in a detailed traffic impact analysis (TIA). The trip generation factors used
herein reflect average conditions and are appropriate for evaluating overall travel demand and
related fiscal implications, but they should not be interpreted as precise forecasts of traffic
volumes or roadway capacity needs.
Revenues
Forward-looking revenues were calculated for each line item, by fund, using varying demand
units or other, customized methodologies where appropriate. Certain revenues are not expected
to be impacted by demographic changes and are considered fixed. These non-growth-related
funds were not included in the calculation of revenues associated with the Craver Ranch
development. To determine which revenues should be deemed fixed, AECOM reviewed the City
of Denton Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports,Annual Program of Services, and other
supporting data and documentation. Discussions with City representatives were also relied upon
to determine which line items to treat as fixed.
The sections that follow are organized by Fund. Within each fund, line items estimated using the
standard multiplier approach are summarized first, followed by subsections detailing the custom
methodologies applied to specific line items that required additional consideration.
General Fund and General Debt Service Fund
Tables 5 and 6 present, for the General Fund and Debt Service Fund, respectively, the relevant
revenue line items and their associated demand units used in multiplier calculations, along with
items categorized as "Fixed" or requiring a "Custom Approach". Details on the custom
approaches are provided in the narrative following the tables.
13
City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table 5. General Fund Revenues-Calculation Approaches by Line Item
Base Year Multiplier
Revenue Line Item Base Year(FY25) Demand Unit Demand Unit ($ per
Category Adopted Amount Value Demand
Ad Valorem (Property)Tax
Current Year Ad $68,431,077 Custom
Valorem Approach
Delinquent Ad $105,340 Fixed
Valorem
Current Year- $189,369 Fixed
Penalties and Interest
Prior Year- Penalties $107,021 Fixed
and Interest
Rendition Penalties $47,111 Fixed
Sales Tax
Sales Tax $60,841,793 Custom
Approach
Other Taxes
Mixed Beverage Tax $590,754 Population 229,878 $2.57
and Jobs
Bingo Tax $17,576 Population 229,878 $0.08
and Jobs
Licenses and Permits
Food Handler Permits $494 Fixed
Zoning Permits $691,604 Population 229,878 $3.01
and Jobs
Moving Permits $6,145 Fixed
Demolition Permits $20,299 Fixed
Pool, Spa, Hot Tub $30,804 Fixed
Permits
Building Permits $5,249,353 Population 229,878 $22.84
and Jobs
Curb Cut Permits $2,500 Fixed
Mobile Home Park $2,965 Fixed
Licenses
Sign Permits $78,743 Fixed
Fence Permits $105,878 Single Family 37,216 $2.84
Units
Mechanical Permits $58,501 Population 229,878 $0.25
and Jobs
Certificate of $72,609 Population 229,878 $0.32
Occupancy Fees and Jobs
Landscape Fees $7,500 Fixed
Short-Term Rentals $4,000 Fixed
Miscellaneous Permits $7,488 Fixed
Park Vendor Fees $20,000 Fixed
Beer&Wine Permits $54,929 Retail Square 9,528,780 $0.01
Feet
CPR Training $1,994 Fixed
Franchise Fees
DMU Electric $5,459,004 Not Applicable
DMU Water $889,692 Custom
Approach
DMU Wastewater $639,197 Custom
Approach
Solid Waste $769,395 Custom
Approach
Gas $840,464 Fixed
Private Electric $190,963 Fixed
Cable $317,529 Fixed
Telephone $38,293 Fixed
Fines and Fees
Warrant Fees $75,330 Fixed
Juvenile Case $2,124 Fixed
Manager
14
City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Base Year lier
.•
Revenue Line Item Base Year(FY25) Demand Unit Demand Unit ($
er
Category Adopted Amount Value Demand
I Unit)
Truancy Prevention $339 Fixed
Fees
Library Fines&Fees $58,002 Population 155,374
$0.37
Animal Service Fees $184,766 Population 155,374 $1.19
Animal Service Fines $7,075 Fixed
Auto Pound Fees $4,285 Vehicle Trips 431,093 $0.01
Police Escort&Guard $14,051 Fixed
Fees
Civil Fines $27,480 Fixed
Arrest Fees $54,000 Total Police 135,892 $0.40
Calls
Community $1,000 Fixed
Improvement Fees
Inspection Fines& $4,000 Fixed
Fees
Fire Department Fines $2,000 Total Fire 22,662 $0.09
Calls
School Crossing Fines $6,000 Fixed
Denton Municipal $622,573 Vehicle Trips 431,093 $1.44
Fines
UNT Police Fines $67,846 Fixed
TWU Police Fines $11,000 Fixed
Parking Fines $116,256 Vehicle Trips 431,093 $0.27
Uniform Traffic Fees $19,000 Vehicle Trips 431,093 $0.04
False Alarm Fees $6,726 Fixed
Court Security $170,000 Fixed
Court Cost Service $77,678 Population 229,878 $0.34
Fees and Jobs
Court Administration $575,000 Population 229,878 $2.50
Fees and Jobs
Service Fees
Community Building $680,238 Fixed
Rentals
Police Academy $47,953 Fixed
Revenue
Ambulance Service $4,082,649 Population 229,878 $17.76
Fees and Jobs
Ambulance $450,000 Fixed
Reimbursements
Hazardous Materials $8,354 Fixed
Billing
Fire Inspections $235,579 Fixed
Restaurant $303,570 Fixed
Inspections
Swimming Pool $30,000 Total 65,886 $0.46
Inspections Residential
Units
Reinspection Fees $108,277 Total 65,886 $1.64
Residential
Units
Electrical Inspections $102,650 Total 65,886 $1.56
Residential
Units
Plumbing Inspections $281,891 Total 65,886 $4.28
Residential
Units
Gas Well Inspections $0 Fixed
Library Non-Resident $49,476 Fixed
Fees
Parks Identification $46,031 Population 155,374 $0.30
Card Fees
15
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Base Year lier
.•
Revenue Line Item Base Year(FY25) Demand Unit Demand Unit ($
er
Category Adopted Amount Value Demand
Athletic Program Fees $1,959,540 Population 155,374 $12.61
Special Events-Parks $59,560 Fixed
Swimming Pool $64,000 Population 155,374 $0.41
Cemetery Fees $40,639 Fixed
Development Fees $540,990 Population 229,878 $2.35
and Jobs
Plan Review Fees $1,328,588 Population 229,878 $5.78
and Jobs
Development Postage $21,628 Fixed
Traffic/Police Reports $36,327 Population 229,878 $0.16
and Jobs
Natatorium Fees $151,015 Population 155,374 $0.97
Water Works Parks $1,448,568 Population 155,374 $9.32
Fees
Interest Charge Past $1,580 Fixed
Due Balance
Clear Creek Rentals $18,000 Fixed
Miscellaneous Revenues
Miscellaneous $5,865,977 Fixed
Revenues
Return on Investment
DMU Electric $17,931,227 Not Applicable
DMU Water $1,732,889 Custom
Approach
DMU Wastewater $1,244,990 Custom
Approach
Cost of Service Transfers
Cost of Service $20,710,051 Fixed
Transfers
Other
Use of Fund Balance $0 Fixed
GENERAL FUND SUBTOTAL $207,579,152
16
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table 6. General Debt Service Fund Revenues—Calculation Approaches by Line Item
CategoryBase Year Multiplier
Revenue Line Item Base Year(FY25) Demand Demand Unit ($ per
. . . •. Amount Unit Value Demand
General Debt Service Fund
Ad Valorem& Custom
Delinquent Taxes $50,012,675 Approach
Interest Income $27,368 Fixed
Transfer In-Airport $751,655 Fixed
Transfer In-
Customer Service $78,525 Fixed
Transfer In- Electric $42,394,596 Fixed
Transfer In-Fleet $913,712 Fixed
Transfer In-
Materials
Management $0 Fixed
Transfer In-Solid
Waste $5,269,872 Fixed
Transfer In-
Technology Services $1,031,206 Fixed
Transfer In-
Wastewater $9,785,287 Fixed
Transfer In-Water $14,571,614 Fixed
Transfer In-Water
Impact Fees $1,635,340 Fixed
Transfer In-
Wastewater Impact
Fees $2,990,345 Fixed
Use of Reserves $0 Fixed
GENERAL DEBT SERVICE FUND
SUBTOTAL $129,462,195
Property Tax Revenue
Property taxes are often the largest and most stable source of revenue for municipalities and
are assessed on an ad valorem basis (i.e., according to the value of the property). Each year,
the City of Denton adopts a property tax rate composed of two components:
• Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Rate, which supports the General Fund by financing
ongoing city services.
• Debt Service Rate, which supports the Debt Service Fund by financing principal and interest
payments on outstanding bonds.
For this analysis, the adopted FY2024-25 property tax rates are applied. Table 7 below
summarizes the adopted O&M and Debt Service rates, along with the combined all-in property
tax rate.
Table 7. FY2024-25 Adopted Property Tax Rates
Rate Component FY2024-25 Rate
00 Assessed Value)
O&M Rate (General Fund) $0.334780
Debt Service Rate(Debt Service Fund) $0.250640
Total Adopted Rate $0.585420
Property tax revenues for the proposed Craver Ranch development are estimated using
developer-provided information on property buildout. This includes the number of single-family
lots by lot size, with developer-estimated assessed values per unit by lot size; the number and
estimated values of townhome and multifamily units; and the non-residential square footage
along with associated assessed value assumptions. These inputs form the basis for projecting
17
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
the assessed valuation of the development and applying the adopted tax rates to estimate
annual property tax revenues.
It is important to reiterate that this analysis does not account for inflation or future appreciation
in property values.All assessed values are held constant at their estimated 2025 values and
applied uniformly throughout the projection period. Similarly, a fixed set of property tax rate
assumptions is used, which maintains a conservative estimate of tax collections but does not
capture the possibility of future rate increases.As a result, property tax revenues shown in this
analysis reflect a fixed-value and fixed-rate scenario. While this approach simplifies modeling
and provides a conservative estimate of revenues, it does not capture potential increases in
assessed valuation or tax rates that could occur due to market appreciation, redevelopment, or
future changes in tax policy. The implication of these assumptions is that projected property tax
revenues may understate actual collections over the long term.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales tax is another significant revenue source for the City and is assessed based on taxable
retail sales occurring within the jurisdiction. For this analysis, sales tax collections are modeled
on a per-capita basis to account for the fact that in Texas, e-commerce sales tax is distributed
based on the purchaser's home address rather than the physical location of the store. This
approach ensures that both in-store and online purchases made by new residents are reflected
in projected revenues.
An important assumption in this analysis is that sales tax revenues are tied to property
absorption; households and commercial uses must be occupied before their associated sales
tax revenues can be realized. Revenues therefore phase in gradually, consistent with the pace
of development and occupancy.
The following steps outline the methodology used to estimate sales tax revenues:
1. Housing Affordability Analysis — For each residential property type in the developer
program, we estimate the household income level it would attract based on average
household income thresholds and the assumption that 28% of annual income is spent on
housing (rent or mortgage). This aligns each unit type with a representative household income
level.
2. Aggregate Household Income —The total household income across all developed lots
(subject to absorption schedules) is calculated.
3. Expenditure Share of Income — Drawing on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data from
2019-2023, we apply the finding that households spend on average, 75.8% of pre-tax income
on annual expenditures.
4. Taxable vs. Non-Taxable Expenditures — Of total household expenditures, only
specific categories are assumed to be subject to sales tax. Expenditure categories such as
"food at home" and "transportation" are excluded, consistent with state sales tax exemptions.
5. Sales Tax Revenue Estimate —Taxable expenditures are multiplied by the City's
adopted sales tax rate of 1.5%, generating annual sales tax revenue estimates attributable to
the new development.
This approach provides a transparent, data-driven method to estimate sales tax revenues
based on the expected spending capacity of new residents, while ensuring that revenues align
with actual property absorption and occupancy patterns.
18
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table 8. Key Sales Tax Revenue Assumptions
AssumptionNotes
Craver Ranch properties
Year 1; 55% do not reach full
Property Absorption Year 2; 85% Costar occupancy in line with
Year 3; 95% City of Denton historic
experience.
Housing as a share of gross 28% CNBC, Business Insider Percent of income spent
income on rent or mortgage
Expenditure share of pre- BLS, 2019-2023 Average proportion of
tax income 75.8% average income spent on goods
and services
Non-taxable expenditure Food at Home, BLS Excluded from taxable
categories Transportation sales base
City of Denton Sales Tax 1.5% City of Denton Applied to taxable
Rate expenditures
Return on Investment Revenue
In accordance with the City's revenue policies stated in the FY25 APOS, the General Fund is
expected to receive transfers from the Utility System on a discretionary basis. These transfers,
which are called Return on Investment (ROI), are currently set at 3.5% of each utility's gross
revenues.AECOM estimated water and wastewater gross revenues from Craver Ranch
properties to determine ROI transfers to the General Fund.As this new development is not
expected to be served by Denton Municipal Electric (DME), electric utility gross revenues were
not considered in the calculations.
Special Revenue Funds
In addition to the General Fund and the General Debt Service Fund, the City of Denton has a
series of other funds. These include the Special Revenue Funds, which are designed to reflect
the receipt of specific revenue sources whose use is limited to a given purpose or project. The
FY25 APOS details 21 Special Revenue Funds serving a variety of objectives in Denton,
ranging from supporting downtown development projects to accommodating self-insurance
operations. This analysis included four (4) of these funds, such as: the Street Improvement
Fund, the Roadway Impact Fee Fund, Water Impact Fees, and Wastewater Impact Fees.
Table 9 presents the relevant revenue line items alongside their calculation approaches. These
were categorized as "Fixed" or"Custom Approach", the latter of which are explained in further
detail following the table.
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City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table 9. Special Revenue Fund Revenues -Calculation Approaches by Line Terns
Base Year Multiplier
Revenue Line Item Base Year(FY25) Demand Demand Unit ($ per
Category Adopted Amount Unit Value Demand
Street Improvement Fund
Bond Sale Savings $2,126,082 Fixed
Interest Income and $100,000 Fixed
Miscellaneous
Transfer from $1,573,632 Fixed
General Fund
Sale of Surplus $10,000 Fixed
Supplies
Franchise Fees $16,300,000 Custom
Approach
Use of Reserves $422,921 Fixed
Roadway Impact Fee Fund
Roadway $3,500,000 Custom
Improvement Fee Approach
Interest Income $0 Fixed
Use of Reserves $3,054,000 Fixed
Water Impact Fee Fund
Water Impact Fee $11,000,000 Custom
Approach
Interest Income $1,400,000 Fixed
Wastewater Impact Fee Fund
Wastewater Impact $12,000,000 Custom
Fee Approach
Interest Income $1,000,000 Fixed
SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS $52,486,635
SUBTOTAL
Note: Only select Special Funds are included in the analysis.
Street Improvement Revenue
The Street Improvement Fund supports the City's street maintenance and improvement
activities. While most revenue sources within this fund are assumed fixed, Franchise Fee
revenues were modeled using a custom approach. These fees, charged to utilities at 5% of their
gross revenues' in exchange for use of the City's rights-of-way, are partially allocated to the
Streets Improvement Fund. Based on the FY25 APOS, 64% of total franchise fees are directed
to this fund, and this allocation ratio was held constant in projecting future revenues.
Roadway Impact Fee Revenue
Roadway Impact Fees are one-time fees applied to new developments to finance or recover the
costs of roadway capital improvements or facility expansions required by such developments.
Collection rates per service unit are assessed based on the property's plat approval date, land
use type, and service area.
A per-unit approach was used to estimate revenues from single-family residential development.
AECOM applied the collection rates established in the 2024 Roadway Impact Fees Ordinance
(Ordinance No. 24-1125) for Single-Family Detached Housing and Residential Condominium /
Townhome land use categories in Service Area D, where Craver Ranch is expected to be built.
Rates of$3,673 per single-family unit and $1,402 per townhome (rounded) were applied to the
total number of housing units over the construction period.
5 While Enterprise(Utility)Fund revenues and expenditures were not included in the FIA,annual gross revenues for water and
wastewater were modeled to facilitate the estimation of franchise fees.Gross revenue estimation relied on the City's FY 2024-2025
Rate Book for residential and commercial water and wastewater rates,drainage fees,and refuse&recycling charges.
20
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
For multifamily residential and commercial development, a separate approach leveraged City-
provided historic impact fee payment data beginning in 2023, from which AECOM derived
multipliers by dividing total annual impact fee payments by aggregate permitted job values.6
These annual ratios were then averaged to obtain distinct multipliers for apartment and
commercial buildings (shown in Table 10), which were applied to estimate their respective
Roadway Impact Fee revenues.
Table 10. Roadway Impact Fee Revenue Multipliers
Property Type Multiplier
(Per$of Assessed Value)
Apartment 0.00391
Commercial 0.02475
Water and Wastewater Impact Fee Revenue
Water and Wastewater Impact Fees are one-time fees applied to new developments to finance
or recover the costs of water and wastewater capital improvements required by such
developments. While both are regulated by the same ordinance, each has a separate and
dedicated fund as well as an individual fee schedule based on water meter size and service
area. These revenues are restricted for use on projects in specific areas, with surpluses to be
spent on large infrastructure capacity projects over the next several years.'
In July 2025, Denton City Council discussed a new Water and Waster Impact Fee Ordinance
that is expected to come into effect next year. Per discussion with City officials, this analysis
relied on the new impact fees assessed as 75% of the proposed maximum amounts per service
area. It was also determined that Craver Ranch would fall within the boundaries of the proposed
Water Zone 1 B and Clear Creek Wastewater Zone.
For single-family housing, a per-unit approach was used to estimate water and wastewater
impact fee revenues. It was assumed that single family units and townhomes—regardless of
their size—had a water meter size of 5/8", which is the standard for a single-family home. Each
unit was assessed the Maximum Impact Fee of$8,059 for water and $13,437 for wastewater,
respectively, upon construction.
For multifamily residential and commercial development, a separate approach was used due to
greater uncertainty regarding specific building features and water meter sizes. Using City-
provided data,AECOM estimated average water meter sizes for multifamily and commercial
buildings on a single-family equivalent (SFE) basis, which are shown in Table 11. These
multipliers, in conjunction with the 75% Maximum Impact Fees, were applied to Craver Ranch's
expected count of multifamily units and commercial square footage over the construction period.
Table 11. Water and Wastewater Impact Fee Revenue Multipliers
Property Type Measure Water Wastewater
Apartment Average SFE/Unit 1.23 1.02
Commercial Average SFE/SQF 0.00159 0.00084
e Permitted Job Value was treated synonymously with Assessed Value for purposes of applying the per-unit fee estimates to the
Developer program.
FY25 Annual Program of Services, p.76
21
City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Expenditures
City expenditures can generally be categorized as either capital or operating. Capital
expenditures represent one-time investments in long-lived infrastructure and equipment—such
as roads, utilities, or public facilities—while operating expenditures reflect the ongoing costs of
providing municipal services, including staffing, maintenance, and administrative functions.
The sections that follow describe the approaches used to estimate operating expenditures by
fund, including the application of standard per-demand unit multipliers and any custom
methodologies used for specific expenditure categories.
Capital Expenditures
Capital costs and infrastructure improvements to service the new Craver Ranch development
were provided by City staff. Discussions were held to determine which capital projects and
associated costs would fall under City responsibility versus those to be funded directly by the
developer. These assumptions were incorporated into the modeling framework to reflect a
realistic distribution of financial obligations.
Table 12 summarizes the capital expenditures for Craver Ranch including the cost sharing
agreed upon between the City and the Developer to date. Only projects required to maintain
current levels of service are identified here—planned investments in private amenities for the
exclusive use of Craver Ranch residents are excluded from this analysis and from the list below.
Table 12. Craver Ranch Capital Expenditure Inventory
ri• .. Denton Developer Service Center Annex(Public Works)
Land (33 acres) 1 $1,300,000 $2,000,000 $3,300,000
Northeast Service CenterAnnexa 1 $14,700,000 $14,700,000
Vehiclesb 20 $1,300,000 $1,300,000
Fire
Land (3 acres x 2) 1 $600,000 $600,000
New Fire Substations 2 $28,000,000 $28,000,000
Fire Engines 2 $5,000,000 $5,000,000
Library
Land (5 acres) 1 $500,000 $500,000
New Library' 1 $19,575,000 $19,575,000
TOTAL $69,875,000 $3,100,000 $72,975,000
Source:City of Denton Staff,Quorum Craver Ranch Facility Study&Needs Assessment,2025
Notes:'The Northeast Service Center Annex will accommodate multiple City Departments.Per discussion with City Staff,this
analysis includes only the share of costs attributable to General Fund departments.Using the Annex's total estimated cost of$105
million and the allocation of 14%of total square footage to General Fund uses,the capital cost incorporated into the model is$14.7
million.
b Quorum estimated a total of 159 City vehicles would be located at the Northeast Service Center.Per discussion with City Staff,
those vehicles associated with Public Works Administration,Water/Wastewater,Streets&Drainage,Solid Waste,and Fleet&
Facilities are financed from operating expenses of the relevant department.As a result,only 20 vehicles associated with the Parks
and Environment departments are included as General Fund financeable assets for this analysis.
C Based on discussion with City Staff,the new library is estimated to cost approximately$750 per square foot. For this analysis, it is
assumed that the new facility will be similar in size to existing libraries within the city,averaging 26,100 square feet.
Debt Service
Capital expenditures identified as the City's responsibility in Table 12 were evaluated to reflect
potential financing assumptions. Major infrastructure investments, including the land and
building of the Northeast Service Center Annex, fire stations, and library were assumed to be
funded through general obligation bonds with conceptual 20-year terms at fixed 5% semi-annual
interest rates. Principal repayment was structured in equal installments over the 20-year term.
Vehicle purchases were modeled separately under a shorter 5-year debt term at the same fixed,
semi-annual rate with equal principal payments. These conceptual assumptions allow debt
service costs to be represented consistently across capital categories while aligning with typical
municipal financing practices.
22
City of Denton-Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Operating Expenditures
Operating expenditures, inclusive of both operating and personnel costs, were generally
estimated using the per-demand unit methodology described for revenues. Table 13 outlines the
General Fund and Special Revenue Fund expenditure line items, their base year (FY25)
adopted budget amount, and the demand unit used to determine the appropriate multiplier.
Expenditure multipliers were determined using the per capita multiplier method described in
Section II.
Although a Parks & Recreation multiplier is included in Table 13 for completeness, no related
operating expenditures are estimated for Craver Ranch. Per discussions with City Staff, no City-
maintained Parks & Recreation facilities are planned within the development, and therefore no
incremental operating expenditures are anticipated. In addition, it is assumed that the Library
will be constructed upon full build-out of Craver Ranch in 2045. Therefore, operating
expenditures will be modelled from 2045 to the end of the analysis period.
A comprehensive utility infrastructure study has not yet been completed for the Craver Ranch
development.$Accordingly, it was assumed that all Water and Wastewater Impact Fee revenues
will be fully expended on the associated infrastructure build-out, resulting in a net zero fiscal
effect for these funds. However, because these fees are currently assessed at only 75% of the
allowable maximum, actual infrastructure costs may exceed collected fees, potentially creating a
net fiscal deficit for the Water and Wastewater Impact Fee funds.
8 Per discussions with City staff and review of the 2025 Draft Water and Wastewater Impact Fee Study,a portion of the
infrastructure needed to serve the Craver Ranch area is already included in the City's 10-year Capital Improvement Plan(see pages
6 and 7). However,for this analysis,it remains unclear whether additional infrastructure beyond what is currently planned would be
required to fully support the development.
23
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Table 13. General Fund, General Debt Service Fund, and Special Revenue Fund Operating
Expenditures—Calculation Approaches by Line Item
AdoptedFund I Base Year Base Year Multiplier($
Expenditure Line Item (FY25)
Category
Neighborhood Services
Building
Inspections $4,474,631 Population 155,374 $28.80
Libraries $7,444,079 Library SF 78,304 $95.07
Parks&
Recreation $27,320,756 Parks SF 38,202,120 $0.72
Development Population and
Services Admin. $1,708,581 Jobs 229,878 $7.43
Planning $3,812,282 Population 155,374 $24.54
Gas Well
Inspections - Fixed
Community
Development $4,543,814 Population 155,374 $29.24
Public Safety
Animal Services $4,456,506 Population 155,374 $28.68
Total Fire(+EMS)
Fire $45,029,087 Calls 22,662 $1,986.99
Population and
Municipal Judge $700,655 Jobs 229,878 $3.05
Police $53,886,749 Total Police Calls 135,892 $396.54
Public Safety Total Police+ Fire
Communications $5,467,867 (+EMS)Calls 158,554 $34.49
Transportation
Traffic Operations $3,091,538 Lane Miles 1,666 $1,855.33
Street Lighting $950,000 Lane Miles 1,666 $570.13
Administrative&Community Services
City Manager's Population and
Office $3,946,816 Jobs 229,878 $17.17
City Council
Administration $306,615 Fixed
Economic Population and
Development $6,053,018 Jobs 229,878 $26.33
Finance Population and
$8,233,257 Jobs 229,878 $35.82
Human Resources Population and
$4,473,174 Jobs 229,878 $19.46
Internal Audit $844,794 Fixed
Legal Population and
$4,066,176 Jobs 229,878 $17.69
Public Affairs Population and
$2,792,910 Jobs 229,878 $12.15
Non-Departmental $13,975,847 Fixed
GENERAL FUND SUBTOTAL $207,579,152
Debt Service
Debt Service $50,005,043 Custom Approach
GENERAL DEBT SERVICE FUND
SUBTOTAL $50,005,043
Street Improvement Fund
Street
Improvement Fund $20,532,635 Lane Miles 1,666 $12,322.29
Roadway Impact Fee Fund
Roadway Impact
Fee Fund $6,554,000 Lane Miles 1,666 $3,933.27
SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS
SUBTOTAL $27,086,635
Note: Only select General Debt Service Funds and select Special Revenue Funds are included in the analysis. It was assumed that
all Water and Wastewater Impact Fee revenues will be fully expended on the associated infrastructure build-out,resulting in a net
zero fiscal effect for these funds.
24
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
IV. Results
The fiscal impact analysis projects that the Craver Ranch development could result in an overall
net fiscal surplus of approximately $106.6 million over the 40-year analysis period. Table 14
summarizes cumulative revenues and expenditures by fund, highlighting where surpluses and
deficits are expected to occur. The Street Improvement Fund is projected to have a shortfall of
approximately $57.5 million, while the General Fund, General Debt Service Fund and Roadway
Impact Fee Fund result in fiscal surplus.As discussed previously, all Water and Wastewater
Impact Fee revenues are assumed to be fully expended on associated infrastructure build-out,
resulting in a net-zero fiscal impact for these funds. However, since total water and wastewater
infrastructure costs were not known for this analysis, and these fees are currently assessed at
only 75% of the allowable maximum, actual infrastructure costs may exceed collected revenues,
potentially resulting in a fiscal deficit for the Water and Wastewater Impact Fee funds.
Table 14. Summary of 40-Year Cumulative Fiscal Impacts
Cumulative Cumulative Net Fiscal
Revenues % Expenditures % Impact
GENERAL FUND $629,180 54% $615,100 58% $14,080
GENERAL DEBT SERVICE FUND $248,250 21% $ 103,320 10% $144,930
SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS
Street Improvement Fund $24,550 2% $82,040 8% ($57,490)
Roadway Impact Fee Fund $31,300 3% $26,190 2% $5,110
Water Impact Fees $92,860 8% $ 92,860 9% $0
Wastewater Impact Fees $ 138,040 12% $ 138,040 13% $0
TOTAL $ 1,164,180 100% $ 1,057,550 100% $106,630
Note:Values presented in$1,000s.
Figure 1 displays estimated future year annual net fiscal results over the 40-year analysis
period. Points above the horizontal axis ($0 line) represent potential annual surpluses while
those below the line represent potential annual deficits. Surpluses in any one year are not
carried over from one year to the next. Notably, the analysis indicates that a majority of annual
deficits occur during the first half of the analysis first half of the analysis period, when significant
debt financing capital expenditures are incurred before the full build-out and occupancy of the
development.
$ 10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
($2)
($4)
($6)
($8)
Figure 1.Annual Net Fiscal Impacts -Craver Ranch
25
City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
Figure 2 presents the estimated cumulative fiscal impacts of the Craver Ranch development
over the 40-year analysis period, disaggregated by total revenues, capital expenditures, and
operating expenditures. While Figure 1 illustrates annual surpluses and deficits, this cumulative
view highlights the long-term balance between ongoing revenues and expenditures. Notably,
revenues are sufficient to cover operating costs in nearly all years, indicating that day-to-day
service delivery has potential to be fiscally sustainable. Substantial capital outlays required to
support new infrastructure—together with the debt service obligations incorporated into the
analysis—are seen as more likely to yield an overall deficit. This visualization underscores the
extent to which the project's fiscal outcome is driven primarily by the timing and magnitude of
capital investments rather than operating performance.
w $ 1,400
C
0
$ 1,200
$ 1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Operating Expenditures oCapital Expenditures tRevenues
Figure 2. Cumulative Estimated Expenditures and Revenues -Craver Ranch
It is important to note that these results are based on a series of assumptions regarding
development timing, absorption rates, infrastructure costs, tax and fee structures, and other key
fiscal parameters. While these assumptions were developed using the best available
information and in consultation with City staff, they represent reasonable estimates rather than
precise forecasts.Accordingly, the results should be interpreted as indicative of general fiscal
trends—highlighting the relative balance between revenues and expenditures—rather than as
exact dollar outcomes. As development proceeds and additional information becomes available,
these assumptions and projections can be revisited and refined to ensure continued alignment
with actual conditions and policy decisions.
In conclusion, the results of this fiscal impact analysis provide an informed estimate of the long-
term fiscal implications associated with the Craver Ranch development. While the analysis
indicates a modest cumulative net surplus over the 40-year period, the findings should be
interpreted within the broader context of development phasing, financing practices, and evolving
fiscal conditions. These results are intended to serve as a planning tool to help the City
anticipate potential revenue and expenditure trends, refine its capital funding strategies, and
support informed decision-making as the project advances from concept to implementation.
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City of Denton—Craver Ranch Fiscal Impact Analysis
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